Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market continued to maintain a positive trend in mid November, and various models of products increased significantly. As of November 20, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 29500 yuan / ton, which was 30.24% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

On the upstream side of PA66, the data from the bulk list of business associations showed that the domestic adipic acid market rose slightly last week, by 2.46%, with a significant slowdown. And most of the dealers’ quotations maintain a stable trend, East China, South China and other regions gradually stop rising. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid is 8200-8500 yuan / ton. From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in November, about 80%. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was moderate. Dealers usually take the goods normally. At present, there are signs that the manufacturers’ inventory is gradually over to the dealers, and the dealers are also showing signs of high price accumulation. At present, with winter approaching, the downstream operating rate may decline, and the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain a high level in the near future, and it is unlikely to continue to rush upward, and the possibility of falling back is not ruled out.

Currently, the upstream adipic acid price is still high and firm, and has strong support for the cost of PA66. Last week, the price rise of PA66 continued. At present, some manufacturers still have some parking and maintenance devices. Half of the devices in Huayang and Xingjia in Liaoyang, Jiangsu Province are shut down. The operating rate of PA66 in China is not high, and the market is still in short supply. Due to the long-term continuous shortage of goods, the social inventory is generally low, and the general suppliers give priority to the core old customers, so the actual situation of stock shortage is even worse. In addition, the price increase letters issued by BASF, DuPont and Randy are still in the boosting effect, and the transaction focus of PA66 market is continuously rising. The replenishment operation of downstream factories follows up passively and favors rigid demand.

Business agency analysts believe: PA66 in mid November domestic market trend is strong. The price of upstream products is strong, which is good for PA66, while the pressure of production cost is also gradually increasing. The downstream customers are against the high price goods, so the purchasing department should follow up on demand. Last week, the increase of PA66 gradually narrowed. At present, terminal demand shows signs of recovery. It is expected that the market of PA66 will continue to be stronger in the short term. It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the influence of environmental protection policies on plasticizing production in the near future.

This week, the regional price adjustment, Jilin Petrochemical down 100 yuan / ton, North China increased 100 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream prices in East China are 7300 yuan / ton, 7450 yuan / ton in North China, 7300 yuan / ton in South China, 7500 yuan / ton in Central China and 7300-7550 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

Up to now, it is known that the latest price of ethylene CFR in Northeast Asia is 925 US dollars / ton, and the raw material price is firm. However, the downstream is in the off-season, and the overall demand is weak. In addition, the recent severe climate situation in Jilin region and the lack of construction conditions in Northeast China lead to the regional price rise and fall of ethylene oxide. Demand side of the negative factors, to a certain extent, affected the extent of market upward.

Overall stable upward, cautious optimistic. The two-way deviation trend of the inter regional market should not last too long, and it is expected to be consistent in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the high production cost, the chloroform market in Shandong has been running steadily. As of November 19, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 2450 yuan / ton, up 22.5% compared with the beginning of the month and 32.43% higher than the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year, 50%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Affected by the high price of raw material liquid chlorine, the cost of chloroform production enterprises is high. In addition, the lower rigid demand is flat, the enterprise starts to decline, the market supply is reduced, and a small number of downstream replenishment warehouses are required. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 2450 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2350 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the methanol market is strong and upward. Due to the influence of weather in some areas, the plant is shut down for maintenance, and the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is mostly optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market will be mainly volatile in the short term; the liquid chlorine market is high and firm, and the downstream market obviously resists the high price of liquid chlorine, but the market price is still stable. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton.

In terms of the downstream market, the cost support of the refrigerant market is fair, the supply of goods is sufficient, the demand continues to be soft, and the overall transaction atmosphere is general. It is expected that the refrigerant market will be stable and soft in the short term; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry has started smoothly, with insufficient support for dichloromethane.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, at present, the domestic chloroform market has a large regional adjustment range. In addition to Shandong, other trichloromethane markets are relatively stable. The price of chloroform in Shandong is greatly affected by the price of raw materials, while the downstream market is mainly viewed. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be stable in a short period of time. Pay attention to the change of liquid chlorine price of raw materials The situation.

In the half of November, the DME market went further and further on the way of price increase. At present, all regions in China have broken through the 3000 yuan / ton mark. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market on November 1 was 2620.00 yuan / ton, and on November 17 it was 3036.67 yuan / ton, with an increase of 15.90% in the first half of the month and 2.59% higher than that of the same period last year.

As of November 17, the quotation of each region is as follows:

Regional specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% Nov. 17 2950-3050 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei Province: ≥ 99.0% 3000 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% 2940-3080 yuan / ton

In the first two days of November, the rise of methyl ether Market was not obvious. At the beginning of the month, due to the decline of international crude oil and the weakening of methanol and civil gas markets, dimethyl ether prices fell slightly from January to February, and began to stop falling and rising on the third. However, due to the limited favorable market conditions, the market transaction atmosphere turned better than the previous period. In the lower reaches, the enthusiasm for entering the market is higher, the market trading is obviously better, and the manufacturer’s mentality is firm, and the ex factory price is slightly increased.

In the second week, dimethyl ether market rose rapidly, up as much as 12% in the week. The sharp rise in the cost of methanol has brought strong support to the dimethyl ether Market. During this period, the international crude oil continued to rise, driving up the civil price of liquefied petroleum gas, which significantly boosted the market. In addition, the weather is cooling down, the terminal demand has been improved, the downstream replenishment cycle has been shortened, the market entry is more active, the market transaction atmosphere is gradually improved, the manufacturer’s mentality is strong, and the quotation is greatly increased. At the beginning of the month, the price of methyl ether was raised by RMB 26350 / T in the beginning of the month.

At present, in the third half of the third week, all regions in China have broken through the 3000 yuan / ton mark, and the price of dimethyl ether has not stopped, but the range has narrowed compared with the previous period. On the 17th, although the raw material methanol market fluctuated slightly, it was still at a relatively high level, which still had some support for the market. However, the weakness of LPG civil market has brought some pressure on DME market. The wait-and-see mood in the downstream increased, and the market entry was more cautious, and the market transaction atmosphere turned weaker than that in the earlier stage. On the 17th, the international crude oil rebounded, bringing certain favorable support to the market.

On the 17th, the methanol market was up and down. The market of methanol in Shanxi Province went up, the mainstream transaction price of Linfen in Shanxi Province was stable at 1950-1970 yuan / t spot exchange; the online auction transaction in Changzhi area reached 2010-2020 yuan / t spot exchange; the mainstream transaction price in Jincheng area increased by 30-50 yuan / ton to 2050-2060 yuan / ton. The methanol market in southern Shandong is temporarily stable at about 2060-2080 yuan / ton, and Linyi receives the mainstream local price of 2060 yuan / ton and delivers it without tax, while the mainstream quotation of logistics goods is 2030 yuan / ton and delivered to the place without tax. The transaction volume of methanol market in central Shandong was stable to 2150 yuan / ton, while the transaction volume of peripheral goods dropped to 2020-2030 yuan / T, and the focus shifted downward.

At present, the market is still dominated by good market, and the high level of raw material methanol supports the market obviously. Although the rising range has narrowed, the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong. Moreover, the rebound of international crude oil is good for the LPG market, and the domestic gas in some areas has risen slightly, which brings certain benefits to the market. The DME market is expected to be strong in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the coking coal market in North China on November 17 was about 1400 yuan / ton, down 3.56% compared with the same period last year. The price of coking coal is relatively strong.

On November 16, the coking coal commodity index was 103.32, unchanged with yesterday, 14.98% lower than 121.53 (2019-03-12), and 130.06% higher than 44.91, the lowest point on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business association, the coal enterprises started operation basically stable, most coal enterprises maintained normal production, the sales of low sulfur main coke were smooth, the inventory continued to be low, and the price rose steadily.

Demand: on the downstream side, the coke price is high and stable temporarily. The seventh round of increase is not responded by the downstream steel plants, and the coke steel game is continuing. In terms of supply, the plan of de capacity in Shanxi and Hebei is gradually implemented, and the supply is slightly tight. Today, the mainstream price of quasi primary wet quenching coke in Shanxi is about 1980-2080 yuan / ton. The demand of downstream steel mills is still good, flat compared with the previous period. In terms of ports, the prices of the two ports in Shandong Province remained stable for the time being, and the inventory declined slightly. The trading atmosphere in the market was good, and the traders quoted actively. Today, the mainstream spot exchange of quasi first grade coke was 2300 yuan / ton. In the future, the recent focus is on the acceptance of the seventh round of increase in steel mills, the implementation of de capacity in various regions and the change of coke inventory in each link.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business society, the high price of coke is the main factor in the downstream. The seventh round of increase in the price of coke has not been responded by the downstream steel mills. The game between coke and steel is continuing. Under the high profits, the coke enterprises start to operate at a high level, and the purchasing enthusiasm is fair. On the whole, it is expected that coking coal will be mainly operated in a short term or strong way in the short term.