In May, the domestic methanol market continued to decline after rebounding. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the month is 1657 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the month is 1620 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.26% in the month, with a maximum amplitude of 6.36%. The price is 30.59% lower than that of the same period last year.

 

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In May, the domestic methanol market showed a trend of narrow fluctuation, and the mainland market hit the bottom again in the middle and late ten days. After the labor day, affected by the centralized maintenance of the units in southern Shandong, the price was relatively firm in the first ten days. However, with the new methanol unit in Baofeng, Ningxia put into operation and the restart time of Shenhua Yulin delayed, the market began to decline, and the lowest price in Northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia dropped to 1300 yuan / ton. With the buyer’s bottoming sentiment highlighted, the methanol price has stabilized and rebounded. The fluctuation of the port is limited, and the fluctuation in the month is limited to 70 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: this month, the domestic formaldehyde market rose first and then fell. After the May 1st Festival, the main methanol production area in the upper reaches raised the price after the festival and the highway recovery charge, and the freight was increased appropriately. The cost side is rising, and formaldehyde enterprises are running up under this clamp. However, the downstream terminal demand is unsatisfactory, and continues to be depressed, unable to support the rise of formaldehyde. In the middle of the month, an accident occurred in Shijiazhuang area, which was under the control of safety inspection in the province, and some enterprises’ devices were temporarily reduced and then increased. Next, the “two sessions” were held in Beijing. Under the premise of ensuring the safety of production, the formaldehyde plant of all enterprises in the country started smoothly and orderly. The center of gravity of the upstream raw materials shifts downward, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises decreases with it, and the theoretical profit of enterprises is acceptable. However, the transformation of downstream wood board factories is imminent, and the market demand for formaldehyde is limited, which makes it difficult for formaldehyde enterprises to ship.

 

Acetic acid: in May, the domestic acetic acid market rose to a high point, and then it made a rational correction. During the May 1st holiday of the beginning of the month, the carbon monoxide problem of the suppliers in Henan Province reduced the load operation, and the spot market supply continued to intensify. Spot manufacturers pushed up the offer, driving the market transaction price to continue to rise slightly. Subsequently, Shanghai Huayi’s 500000 ton acetic acid plant was shut down on May 9 due to problems in the store, aggravating the market supply tension and driving the price of acetic acid to be high and firm. Subsequently, affected by the shortage of acetic acid stock supply of Hebei Jiantao, resulting in the supply gap in the North China market, the local suppliers continued to raise the offer, driving the high market in North China to rise again, and the high market was strong and optimistic. In the middle of the month, Celanese acetic acid plant returned to normal operation, alleviating the situation of market supply exceeding demand, and the acetic acid market remained strong. Near the end of the month, acetic acid market opened a new round of decline.

 

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Dimethyl ether: in May, the overall price of domestic dimethyl ether was low, and at the end of the month, the price of dimethyl ether broke through the historical low. At the beginning of the month, due to the impact of domestic holidays, most of the liquefied gas enterprises chose to drain the inventory and the price of crude oil fell, which brought negative effects on the delivery of dimethyl ether. The price of dimethyl ether continued to decrease. At this time, the price of raw methanol was on the high side, resulting in the non profit of some DME enterprises, resulting in the situation of equipment maintenance of some enterprises. The ease of market supply brought a slight increase in the price, but the good situation was not good Long term, with the increasingly hot weather, the terminal liquefied gas enters into the traditional off-season, and the digestion is slow, which has a negative impact on the DME market, resulting in the continuous decline in the price of DME.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

 

At present, the port’s methanol inventory is still at a high level, and the shortage of storage capacity is prominent. In this context, it is difficult for the domestic methanol market to open an upward channel. However, when it falls to the heart price of some businesses, the bottom reading sentiment drives the market to rebound slightly. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market in June was mainly volatile, which was difficult to fluctuate significantly.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 1 was 8533 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 31 was 9916 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 16.21% this month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: the supply of caprolactam in China is tight this month, and there are few spot products. The enterprise is active in price hike. In addition, the price of caprolactam is rising due to the rising price of raw materials. The price began to rise sharply in the first ten days of May, and gradually stabilized from the middle of May to the end of the month. As of the end of the month, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / ton, cash was delivered, and the manufacturer’s capacity was 300000 tons. The actual transaction was negotiable. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 10200 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 10200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 10200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

 

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Industrial chain: raw material pure benzene rose 19.21% this month. *** Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene five times this month, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price.

 

*** There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Caprolactam analysts believe that this month, due to cost hikes, caprolactam spot supply is tight, leading to price increases. In the later stage, if the cost is stable and the supply increases, the pressure on suppliers will increase. It depends on the follow-up of downstream polymerization plants. It is expected that caprolactam market will mainly be sorted and operated in the short term.

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1、 Price trend:

 

The crude benzene commodity index at May 31 was 43.87, unchanged from yesterday, 66.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 43.65% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

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2、 Market analysis:

 

In May 2020, crude benzene market rose in shock. The factory price in North China was 2250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 2801.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 24.52%.

 

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in May 2020

 

Price increase after date increase unit: yuan / ton

May 6, 3000200 yuan / ton

May 9, 3150, 150 yuan / ton

May 18, 3250100 yuan / ton

May 21, 3350, 100 yuan / ton

May 27, 3500, 150 yuan / ton

 

In May 2020, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene for five times, with a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec had implemented 3500 yuan / ton of pure benzene. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. However, at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price; in May, the external market of pure benzene rose sharply, and the import of pure benzene in South Korea rose by 74.33 USD / ton, or 22.96%; the import of pure benzene in East China rose by 66 USD / ton, or 19.35%

 

In May, international oil prices were generally good, oil producing countries continued to push forward production reduction activities, and the demand for crude oil and refined oil rose to a certain extent. However, the market is still in a state of oscillation, and the uncertainty of trade relations affects the oil price. Compared with April 30, Brent oil price increased by 14.71 USD / barrel, or 74.78%; WTI oil price increased by 13.99 USD / barrel, or 64.03%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 32.385 USD / barrel, or 48.51%; WTI oil price decreased by 24.93 USD / barrel, or 41.02%.

 

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5.1 after the holiday, the bidding price of crude benzol has been greatly increased. At the beginning of the month, the crude oil has gone up, the bulk commodity has gone up as a whole, and the price of pure benzene has gone up, which is good for the crude benzol Market. The price adjustment of crude benzol bidding on April 30 before the holiday was shelved for various reasons, and after the holiday, the bidding price has been greatly increased due to the favorable fundamentals. The following downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have high cost pressure, high crude benzene inventory and weak purchasing interest, which have double effects on crude benzene entering the high consolidation period, and the market is stable. In recent years, some coking enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi have been limited in starting operation and the operating rate has been reduced, but the crude benzene supply has not been greatly affected, the social inventory is relatively sufficient, the enthusiasm of traders to enter the market is relatively low, the market is slightly cold, although the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has slightly increased, the overall operating rate is still at a low level, and the demand for crude benzene is limited. As of the 29th, the mainstream price of crude benzene in Shandong was 2800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

 

The price of styrene in the downstream product market in Shandong Province was 5100 yuan / ton on May 1, and 5416.67 yuan / ton on May 29, up 6.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 19 to 24, with a price of 5500 yuan / ton. At present, the rise of styrene is mainly affected by crude oil, and the actual spot shipments are relatively small. Aniline: the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton on May 1, 4466.67 yuan / ton on May 29, down 6.94% this month. Aniline fell twice this month, while the rest remained stable. The MDI and auxiliary operating rate in the downstream of aniline are still low, and the demand for aniline is insufficient.

 

The aftermarket business community believes that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producing countries are considering extending the production reduction period to the end of 2020. OPEC will hold another meeting on June 10 to continue to pay attention to the production reduction meeting. And oil price is not only affected by supply and demand, but also by economic constraints. Uncertainty in trade relations could trigger oil price shocks. Crude benzene inventory is high in the near future, the demand for downstream hydrogenated benzene is general, lack of demand support, crude benzene price is mainly high consolidation, follow-up still need to focus on the trend of crude oil and pure benzene.

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According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, affected by the two-way negative impact of cost and demand, the market of ethyl acetate in East China gradually weakened this week. As of May 29, the average price of ethyl acetate in East China was 5375 yuan / ton, down 1.6% from the same period last week.

 

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From the perspective of production cost, the decline of acetic acid price eased the production pressure of enterprises to a certain extent, but the price of ethyl acetate also declined. At the beginning of the week, jinyimeng plant in Shandong Province shut down, mainly consuming inventory, and the decline of supply side slowed down the downward trend of the price of ethyl acetate to a certain extent; the terminal market just needed to purchase, large orders were rarely traded, small single negotiations, and the market was bearish Sentiment spread, production enterprises more profit shipping.

 

In terms of raw materials, the weak market of acetic acid declined, the supply of the industry was expected to improve significantly, the downstream market was not smooth in receiving goods, and the two-way negative supply and demand led to the continuous decline of acetic acid price; the ethanol market was stable and strong, with fewer enterprises in stock, higher corn prices, higher production costs, more goods and less sales, which had a certain positive support for ethyl acetate.

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International: affected by the international epidemic, the supply and demand of international ethyl acetate are weak, and the regional price difference is large, among which the European port is about 1000 US dollars / ton, and the North American market port price is about 615 US dollars / ton.

 

According to the ethyl acetate analyst of business association, the weak market of domestic ethyl acetate is hard to change in the short term, the upstream and downstream support is insufficient, the industry starts not high, but the market turnover is less, the enterprise sales pressure and inventory pressure are obvious, and it is expected that the operation will be weak in the short term.

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Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply in May, and the market performance of DOP was strong. As of May 29, the price of DOP in East China was 7066.67 yuan / ton, up 12.77% from 6266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 2.97% from the same period last year. Since April, the cost of DOP raw materials has increased, and DOP prices have risen in shock. However, since May, PVC market has rebounded sharply, supporting the strong rise of DOP.

 

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Cost factor

 

It can be seen from the trend chart of raw materials of plasticizer DOP that in April and may, the price of DOP raw materials octanol rose sharply, while the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. DOP raw material prices rise, DOP costs rise, DOP rising momentum, DOP market is good.

 

Industrial chain factors

 

From the price trend chart of PVC and DOP, it can be seen that the price of PVC fluctuated and remained stable in April. Although the DOP market rose in general, the momentum of the rise was insufficient, and the DOP market fell in late April. Since May, the economic environment has picked up, PVC demand has increased, PVC prices have risen all the way, which is good for DOP market, and DOP prices have risen strongly.

 

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Market overview and future expectation

 

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at the business club, believes that since April, affected by the rise of raw material prices and DOP costs, DOP prices have rebounded from the bottom in early April and have risen all the way. From May, the macro-economy recovered, and the demand backlog in the early stage was released. In May, the demand for PVC rose sharply, and the demand for DOP rose correspondingly. In May, the DOP market showed strong performance. For the aftermarket, with the release of the pre backlog demand, the market demand in June was relatively stable, and the upward momentum of DOP was weakened. At the end of May, DOP raw material price was adjusted by shocks, and the downward pressure of DOP market was increased. Generally speaking, the demand support of aftermarket was insufficient, the cost of DOP was reduced, and the downward pressure of the upward momentum of DOP market was increased. DOP prices are expected to fall slightly in June.

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