According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 30, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10616.67 yuan / ton. The domestic DMF market has been rising steadily. The overall price trend is rising, and the focus of negotiation is high. Compared with the same period last week, the price has increased by 3.41%, and compared with the same period last month, the price has increased by 3.75%.

 

At present, the domestic DMF market is mainly operating at a high level, and the market price is constantly rising. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream, and the transaction atmosphere is cautious. The price of methanol in the upstream is rising. Most enterprises adjust the price one after another, with the increase of 30-50 yuan / ton. The price of mainstream manufacturers, Yankuang Guohong’s methanol quotation is increased by 50 yuan / ton to 2260 yuan / ton, and Shandong Rongxin’s methanol quotation is increased by 30 yuan / ton to 2280 yuan / ton The methanol price of Xinneng Fenghuang was increased by 30 yuan / ton to 2330 yuan / ton. The rise of methanol price has formed a certain support for the cost of DMF. The current reference price of DMF is 10800-10900 yuan / ton in East China market and 11000-11200 yuan / ton in South China market.

 

Business agency DMF analysts believe: it is expected that DMF will maintain a stable and rising operation in the short term, and the factory will support the price and shipping mentality. (to know more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods and grasp the price of commodities).

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In recent years, the domestic ethanol market is weak, and the market performance of different regions is different. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of March 26, the domestic ethanol market price was 7212 yuan / ton, with a month on month drop of 0.35% and a year-on-year rise of 37.05%.

 

In terms of regional market conditions, the markets in Northeast, East China and Shandong are down, those in Henan are weak, those in South China and Guangxi are strong, those in Dongguan are weak, those in Anhui are weak, those in Sichuan are down, and those in Yunnan are stable.

 

From the perspective of raw materials, raw corn continued to weaken, domestic rainfall and warming weather were unfavorable for the long-term storage of tidal grain, traders and growers with limited grain storage conditions continued to produce grain, the supply of tidal grain was at a high level, coupled with the substitution of grain and the supplement of imported corn, the demand was expected to decrease, and the corn spot price continued to fall. From the perspective of demand, the demand for power in terminal chemical enterprises is insufficient, Baijiu demand is in the off-season, and the disinfection type alcohol has not recovered significantly, and the whole downstream demand is weak.

 

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

 

Region, category, price

Shandong Province: 6900-7000 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7500-7900 yuan / ton

In Shandong Province, ﹣ 7850-7900 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 7250-7300 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the average corn yield is about 7150-7200 yuan / ton

About 7100-7150 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8000-8050 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7250-7300 yuan / ton, including tax

In Henan Province, ﹣ 7800-7950 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol including tax

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province: 8100-8150 yuan / ton

In Heilongjiang Province, the general grade of corn alcohol is 6800-6900 yuan / ton, including tax

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 8150-8300 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 7050 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6950 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

In Guangxi, the price of honey alcohol is 7200-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava in Guangxi

Guangxi area: 7650-7800 yuan / ton of anhydrous ethanol

About 7150-7200 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

About 7750-7950 yuan / ton of anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong

Corn prices fluctuated. Some enterprises in Northeast China had maintenance plans in April, and they maintained low load production. However, due to weak downstream demand, poor delivery and slow destocking, ethanol analysts of business community predicted that corn ethanol would be weak in the short term.

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According to the data monitoring of business news agency, this week (3.22-3.26), the market of methane chloride in Shandong Province stopped falling and stabilized. As of March 26, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 3630 yuan / ton, down 0.73% from 3656 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.11% from the lowest point of 3590 yuan / ton on Wednesday, and the average price of trichloromethane was about 3750 yuan / ton, down 5.86% from 3983 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the lowest point on Wednesday 3700 yuan / ton, up 1.35%.

 

This week, there was little pressure on the spot inventory of methane chloride in Shandong Province. The starting load of some enterprises in Zhongyue and Dongyue was not high, and the starting load in Luxi was about 90%. The overall market supply was still moderately tight. In addition, after the price of methane chloride was lower than the previous period, the downstream procurement increased slightly, and the demand side recovered.

 

The cost side is intertwined. The support of liquid chlorine is stronger than that of methanol. The price of liquid chlorine rose this week, and the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong was 1850-2000 yuan / ton. However, this week, the international crude oil fluctuated up and down at US $60, which was weak as a whole. As of the 25th, the WTI contract closed at US $58.34/barrel in May, which was negative for domestic chemicals. The price of methanol is also at a low level. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 26, the price of methanol was 2330 yuan / ton.

 

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the inventory pressure of methane chloride production enterprises in Shandong is not big, coupled with the slight recovery of downstream procurement and the rise of liquid chlorine, the price of methane chloride is expected to rise steadily in the later period.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of March 25, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 28666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on March 19 (reference price 29833 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 1167 yuan / ton, or 3.91%. Compared with the price on March 1 (reference price 23666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 5000 yuan / ton, or 21.13%.

 

In late March, silicone DMC experienced a cool fall after a surge

 

Since the beginning of March, the domestic market of silicone DMC has been rising all the way. By the middle of March, on the 16th, the quoted price of a large silicone DMC factory in Shandong broke through the 30000 yuan / ton mark, the market price almost touched the ceiling, and the quoted price of the secondary market was basically around 29500-30000 yuan / ton. With the continuous increase of production cost, the downstream pressure has increased sharply, and the profit of the terminal market has been seriously compressed. The digestibility and affordability of the downstream are limited. The hidden danger brought to the market by the rapid price inflation is obvious. The sales of high-end prices are reduced, and the quantity of orders received by the downstream is reduced. Shandong large factories quickly reduce the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. For seven days, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of the factory is frequent On the 25th, the high-end quotation of silicone DMC in the plant was reduced from 30200 yuan / ton to 27500 yuan / ton, down 2700 yuan / ton.

 

At present, the price changes of silicone DMC in the market mainly come from Shandong silicone DMC manufacturers. The prices of most of the other factories are still stable around 28000-29500 yuan / ton. The market sealing still exists. Most of the factories keep limited orders, the supply continues to be tight, and the game between the raw material side and the demand side is showing for the first time. On the 25th, the factory quotation of silicone DMC market was around 27500-29500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 28666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on the 19th of last weekend, the average price decreased by 1167 yuan / ton, or 3.91%; compared with the price on the 1st of the month, the average price increased by 5000 yuan / ton, or 21.13%.

 

The game between supply and demand is emerging, and the market will remain high in the short term

 

At present, the silicone DMC market seems calm on the surface, but in fact, it is turbulent. The rush in the early stage has brought substantial cost pressure to the downstream. At present, the downstream market is slowing down and the wait-and-see situation is aggravating. However, the low spot inventory of the silicone DMC factory and limited orders still support the high and stable offer of the factory. The supply and demand game of silicone DMC has begun to emerge, according to the data analysts of the business society, According to the current market trend, the right to speak still focuses on the raw material side, so the future market of silicone DMC will be able to maintain high and stable operation.

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Zinc price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and adjusted in March, and the price of zinc market rose weakly. As of March 24, the average price of zinc was 21843.33 yuan / ton, up 1.10% from 21606.67 yuan / ton on March 1.

 

Domestic zinc Market

 

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2021, China’s zinc ingot production reached 1.075 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. From January to February, China’s imports of refined zinc increased 60% year on year to 87345 tons. The domestic zinc ingot supply increased and the zinc market was short.

 

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region has issued the double control target task of energy consumption in 2021, and determined the target task of reducing the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 3% and controlling the energy consumption increment within 5 million tons of standard coal in 2021. The growth rate of total energy consumption was controlled at about 1.9%, and the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value (equal value) decreased by more than 4%. Increasing energy consumption control in various parts of the country has a certain impact on the production of mines and other enterprises. Some zinc mines are shut down, but compared with the overall output, the impact of shutting down production is limited.

 

According to the survey data at the beginning of March, in 130 galvanizing production enterprises, 51 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 80.83%; the capacity utilization rate was 71.53%, which was 1.84% higher than last week; the weekly output was 860400 tons, which was 22100 tons higher than last week; in 47 color coating production enterprises, 9 production lines were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate was 91.89%; the capacity utilization rate was 77.4%, which was 3.5% higher than last week 1%; the weekly output was 21.41 tons, an increase of 9700 tons compared with last week; the warehouse inventory of coated steel coil in the main domestic market: 1.291 million tons of galvanized steel, an increase of 38500 tons on a week-on-week basis; 269500 tons of color coating, an increase of 12800 tons on a week-on-week basis. The total inventory of coating and plating was 1.5605 million tons, an increase of 51300 tons per week. It can be seen from the statistical data that the output of the downstream industry chain of zinc city rises, the downstream operating rate rises slowly, the demand of zinc city rises, and the market of zinc city is good.

 

Zinc imports

 

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, from January to December 2020, China’s import volume of zinc ore reached 3.707 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. From January to February 2021, China’s imports of zinc ore and concentrate totaled 680100 physical tons, China’s imports of zinc ingots totaled 88200 metal tons from January to February, and China’s imports of unwrought zinc alloy totaled 10500 tons from January to February. In 2020, the import volume of domestic zinc ore will increase greatly, and the supply of zinc market will be sufficient. However, the import volume of zinc market will be stable from January to February in 21. The supply of zinc in the city is generally sufficient.

 

Zinc processing fee

 

Due to the shortage of mine supply, the processing fee paid by the miner to the smelter for refining zinc decreased from $300 / t a year ago to $200 / T in 2021. China’s domestic zinc concentrate processing fee fell to 3600-4200 yuan / ton in March, the lowest level since September 2018, far lower than 6500 yuan / ton in early 2020. Lower processing fee may force zinc smelters to cut production. The output of zinc smelters decreased, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the market of zinc market rose.

 

Analysis summary and Prospect

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: Recently, affected by the epidemic, the EU’s economic recovery has been frustrated, the nonferrous plate is under pressure, and the zinc market is weakening. However, in the long run, the strengthening of energy consumption control in China limits the increase of zinc market output to a certain extent. The low zinc concentrate processing fees also hit the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises. The probability of output decline in the future of zinc market increases. The increase of imported zinc alleviates the decrease of domestic zinc market supply, and the supply of zinc market is generally sufficient. However, the downstream of zinc industry chain started to rise, the demand for zinc ingots slowly recovered, and the future supply of zinc market is still tight. Zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future, zinc market is cautiously optimistic.

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