1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4325.00 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4312.50 yuan / ton, down 1.74%, and the current price was 2.20% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate declined slightly. Recently, the domestic potassium chloride consumption is in the off-season. The port market has a sustained wait-and-see mentality. The available inventory is gradually increasing. Traders are eager to ship. The actual order in the market is generally closed, and the price of potassium chloride is weak and consolidated. Weak support for potassium nitrate Market, poor downstream demand to maintain rigid purchase, trading atmosphere of potassium nitrate Market is cold and clear, the actual volume is low, potassium nitrate market fell all the way. This week, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 4000-4500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), according to the purchase situation, the quotation is different.

3、 Future forecast

According to the potassium nitrate analyst of the business agency, in the near future, the domestic potassium fertilizer market is dominated by a weak downward trend, with more new goods coming from the port, and the subsequent price is mainly affected by the inventory. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will be dominated by a weak downward trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market fluctuated narrowly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3410 yuan / ton, down 2.57% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: as Europe and the United States gradually liberalize the restrictions on the epidemic blockade, global demand is expected to improve, but the overall demand is still insufficient. Affected by this, the price of toluene in China is adjusted by shocks this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3430 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, supported by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait taking the lead in reducing production, the three major crude oil market reports show that the current oversupply situation has eased. At the same time, with the gradual release of restrictions on the epidemic blockade in Europe and the United States, global crude oil demand is expected to improve. Affected by this, this week’s oil price rebound. However, the market is still worried about the risk of a second outbreak, and the weak economic outlook of the United States still limits the rise of oil prices. Generally speaking, early signs of gradual recovery of oil market balance can be seen, but uncertainty in the oil industry still exists. As of early Friday morning, Brent futures rose 29.62%, Brent futures 17.68%, WTI futures 17.41% and Dubai futures 25.12%.

In the downstream, the TDI market is slightly stronger, and the quotation keeps rising. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 10500-10600 yuan / ton, the quotation of Shanghai goods with bills is 10800-11000 yuan / ton, and the listing price of Wanhua chemical in May is 12000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable and small rebound trend, and pay close attention to the later information guidance of the factory and the actual market delivery Investment situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 467 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 485 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: in the short term, we can see the supply cost end, OPEC + production reduction, crude oil futures delivery trend in June, and the situation in the US and Iraq. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the approaching June crude oil futures delivery trend. In a word, it is expected that the toluene price in the domestic market next week will depend on the crude oil trend, with great uncertainty.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business association, the weak operation of soda ash in China is dominant. The average price of domestic market in East China is one thousand two hundred and eighty-three point three three About yuan / ton. On May 18, the commodity index of light soda ash was sixty-eight point three eight , down from yesterday one point five three Point, the highest point in the cycle one hundred and seventeen point eight six Point (2017-11-21) decreased 41.98% , compared with the lowest point on November 18, 2015 sixty-three point one five It’s up 8.28% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The domestic soda price is weak and stable. In East China, the weak and stable market of soda ash is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1300-1400 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. The consolidation market of soda ash in Central China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1200-1300 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The market price of soda ash consolidation in North China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1550 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The overall inventory of the enterprise is still on the high side.

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the overall weak sorting of soda ash, weak operation of domestic soda ash market, poor market atmosphere, general demand of downstream market, high inventory pressure, and active shipment and consumption of inventory by enterprises are the main factors. It is estimated that the weak operation of soda ash is still the main factor in the short term based on the downstream market demand.

According to statistics, the price trend of ammonium nitrate in China this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate in China is 2330 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, up year on year 18.47% 。 The commodity index of ammonium nitrate on May 15 is one hundred and twenty-two point six three , same as yesterday, higher than the highest point in the cycle one hundred and twenty-five point two six Point (2020-03-15) dropped 2.10% , compared with the lowest point on October 31, 2016 seventy-seven point three seven It’s up 58.50% 。 (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants is normal. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal. Transportation has been alleviated to a certain extent. The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. In the near future, ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a good shipping market, downstream purchase on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2100-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2500-2700 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable, and the weekend price was one thousand four hundred and thirty-three point three three Yuan / ton, the price trend this week is temporarily stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1300 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1350 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1400 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1580 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance equipment is normal, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, the goods are in poor condition, the price trend of nitric acid market remains low, the low price of nitric acid is the negative impact of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable. Since May, the market has been mostly stable, keeping a narrow range of shocks and adjusting the range within 100 yuan. On the one hand, the high start-up rate of manufacturers in the early stage has accumulated a large amount of inventory. At present, the manufacturers are willing to de inventory. On the other hand, the spring farming season has passed, and the downstream demand has stabilized, unable to continue to drive the rise of the liquid ammonia market. The procurement strength of downstream nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers has slowed down obviously, and most of them are on-demand procurement. At present, the supply and demand of the market is in the balance stage. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation of liquid ammonia in the northern region is around 2800-2900 yuan / ton, the price trend of upstream raw materials is temporarily stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the price trend of raw materials market remains low, and the ammonium nitrate Market loses certain cost support. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association thinks that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the price of lithium hydroxide Market was lowered this week, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. As of the 15th, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 55666.67 yuan / ton, down 2.34% compared with the beginning of the week, and down 17.73% in half a year. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun Industrial Co., Ltd. is 56000 yuan / ton, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Eugene Industrial Co., Ltd. is 58000 yuan / ton, and the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Zigong tongfarong Industrial Co., Ltd. is 53000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is a single negotiation. On May 14, the lithium hydroxide commodity index was 132.54, unchanged from yesterday, 65.26% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 381.48 (2016-09-12), and 32.54% higher than the lowest point, 100.00 on September 4, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the upstream lithium carbonate market is in a weak position in the near future (5.1-5.14). As of May 14, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 41700 yuan / ton, down 0.48% compared with May 1; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 46000 yuan / ton, down 1.50% compared with May 1. At present, the demand side of the market is still poor, and the downstream market is dominated by rigid demand purchase, with a general trading atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the market of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 14, 2020, among which ethylene (4.79%), dichloromethane (3.14%) and chloroform (2.86%) are the top three commodities. There are 8 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products with a decline are mixed xylene (- 2.83%), toluene (- 1.73%) and styrene (- 1.58%). The average price of this day is 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, the upstream lithium carbonate market is weak, the cost support is weak, and new orders are generally traded in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be stable for the time being.