1、 Price trend

In April, the domestic propane market rose and fell sharply, showing an overall “V” trend. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propane market was 2762.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 3237.5 yuan / ton, with an increase of 17.19% in the month. Compared with the same period last year, the price fell by 22.87%, and the earthquake amplitude in April was 40.54%.

2、 Market situation

Price: in April, the trading atmosphere of propane market was general, and the price rose. As of April 30, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have no propane in stock, so they will not offer. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3350 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3250 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan / ton.

Market: at the beginning of the month, propane prices rose steadily. Before and after the Qingming holiday, propane rose significantly in Shandong, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market improved. Moreover, the continuous rise of international crude oil drives the market atmosphere, and the downstream bullish mentality is obvious. In addition, there is a demand for replenishment after the festival, so the market atmosphere is more positive. The manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the inventory is low, and the price continuously pushes up. At present, the terminal market has returned to normal, and the market demand has increased, which has also brought certain benefits. From April 12 to 14, polypropylene led propylene to soar. As the upstream of propylene, propane prices also rose sharply during the period. On April 12, some enterprises in propane (Shandong) market rose 1000 yuan / ton per day, setting a new record of the highest increase in recent years. However, the rise lacks fundamental support, which means that “a big rise will be accompanied by a big fall”. After April 14, the market ushered in a rational callback, and the price fell back broadly. The market is like a roller coaster. At the end of the month, after a big rise and fall, the market returned to normal. The continuous low price of liquefied gas has suppressed propane, but crude oil rose at the end of the month, and the introduction of CP in May has brought benefits to the market, and the overall price of propane shows a trend of fluctuation.

International crude oil: the broad decline of international crude oil this month has restrained the market. On April 9, the OPEC + special meeting ended, and its production reduction volume was lower than the market expectation, and the oil price fell again; on April 14, the international oil price fell again, mainly because OPEC + and other oil producing countries’ production reduction agreement disappointed the market, the production reduction share was difficult to offset the decline of fuel demand caused by the new crown epidemic, and the U.S. crude oil inventory exceeded the expectation, which increased the market panic atmosphere; on April 20 On April 23, the WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. rebounded and its price rose for two consecutive days. The Brent crude oil futures market continued to decline and its price fell sharply. In May, the contract fell to a negative range, but in June, the negative value was the exception, not the normal state of the global crude oil market. Until April 23, the WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. rebounded and its price rose for two consecutive days. The Brent crude oil futures market rose sharply, which is also the international crude oil company WTI rose more than 40% in the following two days, mainly due to the accelerated production reduction of oil producing countries and the geopolitical turmoil of peripheral factors.

International market: Saudi Aramco may CP announced that propylene butane all rose sharply. Propane rose to $340 / T, up $110 / T from last month; butane rose $340 / T, up $140 / T from last month.

3、 Future forecast

Before the May 1st Festival, the manufacturer has the operation of warehouse arrangement and replenishment before the downstream Festival. The market atmosphere is good and the inventory pressure of the manufacturer is reduced. International crude oil rose, and CP rose sharply in May, which brought certain positive effects to the market. However, after May 1, the temperature gradually rises, and propane will usher in the traditional demand off-season. It is expected that the propane market will rise first and then fall in May.

In April, the price of rare earth in the domestic market fell. Recently, the downstream demand decreased, and the market price of rare earth decreased slightly. According to the business society rare earth sector index, on April 29, the rare earth index was 330 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 67.00% from 1000 points (2011-12-06), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.77% from 271, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of the end of the month, the average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals in China was 353500 yuan / ton, with a decline of 3.81% and a year-on-year increase of 4.74%; the average price of dysprosium was 2325000 yuan / ton, with a stable price trend this week, with a year-on-year increase of 29.53%; the average price of praseodymium was 635000 yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.78% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.97%. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 263500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.31%, which is flat on a year-on-year basis; the price of dysprosium oxide is 1785000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.56%, which is 20.20% higher on a year-on-year basis; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 305000 yuan / ton, which is 1.61% lower on a year-on-year basis, which is 14.08% lower on a year-on-year basis; the average price of neodymium oxide is 279000 yuan / ton, which is 2.96% lower on a year-. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 330500 yuan / ton, down 1.93%, down 2.79% year on year; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1775000 yuan / ton, down 1.11%, up 19.53% year on year.

In April, the price of domestic rare earth market fell, and the price trend of medium heavy rare earth dropped slightly. The supply of domestic heavy rare earth market was normal, and the import source of heavy rare earth was tight. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers started work normally, the domestic supply was sufficient, and the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth dropped slightly. In recent years, the demand for permanent magnet is general, coupled with the recent downturn in the new energy automobile industry, the market demand for rare earth is limited, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly low, the on-site supply is normal, the recent demand for light rare earth is general, and some market prices are slightly down. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturers reasonably control the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand is low, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market is declining.

Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents said that by 2025, new energy vehicle sales accounted for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the implementation of preferential enterprise policies for rare earth industry, which said that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises and form the collection of relevant supporting policies for the resumption of production in rare earth industry. All rare earth enterprises should actively connect with China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association, obtain relevant policy information, accurately grasp the application requirements, strive for policy support, promote the smooth operation of rare earth industry chain, and jointly promote the stable and healthy development of the industry.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not decrease, but the domestic market demand for rare earth is not good in the near future, and the supply and demand pattern is normal, but the market price of light rare earth is at a low level in the near future, and the market price trend of rare earth is expected to maintain a low level.

1、 Price data

As of April 26, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 3660.00 yuan / ton, down 0.54% from 3680.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

On April 26, the fuel oil commodity index was 74.13, unchanged from yesterday, 36.05% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 60.87% higher than the lowest point, 46.08, on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic fuel oil transaction this week is light, and the actual transaction price is about 3500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 25.03 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 16.94 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 32.32%; Brent crude oil is 28.08 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 24.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 11.43%. WTI futures delivery reduced international oil prices, and the “US Iraq” relationship was once again strained. OPEC + and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda. Active production reduction combined with passive production reduction brought a certain boost to the market, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. Domestic shale oil price fluctuates little.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business club think that the international crude oil fell sharply this week, the overall demand of the domestic ship fuel market is light, the shipping market is sluggish, the transaction is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of fuel oil before the festival will be stable, or around 3500 yuan / ton.

Adipic acid market trend chart

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, from April 20 to 26, last week, the domestic adipic acid market was weak and stable, with little change in price compared with last week. According to the data monitored by the business club, the weekly decline of adipic acid in East China was 1.20%, the market demand was weak, and the supply pressure was still there. Some dealers’ quotations rose and fell within 100 yuan. Most manufacturers were still short of the market and light of inventory operation According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid market is 6500-6700 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of market supply, at present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is still relatively prominent, and the supply pressure is also becoming more and more severe. The main reason is that the manufacturers still maintain a high rate of start-up. Although most dealers have returned to normal shipment, they still haven’t reached the level of shipment before the epidemic, which leads to the gradual increase of inventory pressure of manufacturers. It is more and more urgent for enterprises and market to de stock. In terms of cost, although pure benzene has rebounded significantly from the beginning of April to now, it has not brought fundamental benefits to adipic acid. On the one hand, the delay of cost transfer, on the other hand, the early pure benzene has dropped sharply, and the decline of adipic acid has not fully kept up with the decline of pure benzene, so there is still some profit space for adipic acid without rebounding, so adipic acid is also higher Pure benzene is more resistant to falling.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the operating rate of downstream factories has not been significantly improved, and plastic products are still in the off-season of consumption, which is difficult to boost the market. In particular, the operating rate of downstream real estate is generally lower than that of the same period last year, and the sales volume of polyurethane and other thermal insulation materials has declined significantly. In addition, the downstream products such as PA66 have not come out of the dilemma, and the price is still at a low level, which eventually leads to the outflow of adipic acid The goods situation is not ideal, the inventory is difficult to digest, the manufacturer has a lot of inventory pressure, the dealers generally follow the market, and purchase on demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, the external demand has also worsened, especially affected by the overseas epidemic, the external demand has decreased, and the pressure on adipic acid export has continued to increase, which does not rule out the possibility that the inventory will continue to rise in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

In the later stage, the business association predicted that the whole chemical industry market was impacted by the background of low oil price, and the market confidence was generally weak. Although the price of pure benzene rebounded, it was still at a relatively low level in history. The upstream bad position was still an important factor restricting the adipic acid market, but more importantly, it was affected by the weak market demand, especially the overseas epidemic situation was not effectively controlled, and foreign orders were sharply shrinking, Adipic acid export has been hit. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid should maintain a downturn in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, this week’s gasoline and diesel prices fell first and then stabilized, with a slight decline. The domestic gasoline price was 4816 yuan / ton, 3.44% lower than last week’s gasoline price; the domestic diesel price was 5129 yuan / ton, 1.49% lower than last week’s diesel price.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: crude oil futures fell sharply this week, the operating rate of domestic refining and chemical equipment remained at a high level, the market demand for refined oil was not good to stimulate, and the market price of refined oil fell slightly this week.

Industry chain: WTI futures delivery dropped international oil prices, crude oil prices fell, the “US Iraq” relationship between China and the United States was once again strained, geopolitical risk factors increased the premium space of crude oil; at the same time, OPEC + and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda, active production reduction superimposed by movable production reduction brought certain boost to the market. International oil prices fall first and then rise.

Market: on the demand side, there is a lack of good news support for gasoline this week. The downstream gas stations mostly replenish the storage as needed, and the main outsourcing orders are released, but the support is limited. In terms of diesel, engineering, infrastructure, logistics and transportation still have a strong support for the diesel market. The inventory of downstream customers is not high, and market transactions are still dominated by bargain hunting. Affected by the epidemic this year, travel during the May Day holiday has limited boost to the oil product market demand. This week, the price of domestic refined oil market fell first and then stabilized, with a slight decline overall.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that: the international crude oil demand is weak, the market price is still under pressure, and there is no bright spot in the domestic oil product demand, so it is expected that the domestic oil product market will be weak and stable.