1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, as of July 30, the average price of maleic anhydride in China was 6433 yuan / ton (including tax), and the market as a whole remained stable, with a decrease of 0.52% compared with the average price of 6533 yuan / ton in the same period of last month.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on July 10 was 60.60, unchanged with yesterday, down 51.00% from 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and 18.41% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: this week, the domestic maleic anhydride market is still running stably. The solid anhydride in Jiangsu Province is about 5700 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride is about 5600 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shandong area is about 5500 yuan / ton, and the liquid anhydride is about 5300 yuan / ton. The spot supply in the market is still on the low side, which is good for the enterprises to support the price, but there is no new price transaction in the industry.

Industrial chain: affected by the parking of some hydrogenated benzene enterprises and the exploration of pure benzene as raw materials, the hydrobenzene market gradually recovered, and traders began to copy the bottom price. However, with the recovery of market start-up and the behaviors of middlemen, the market upward momentum of hydrobenzene market was insufficient; the downstream resin market was in the off season, the market operating rate was less than 40%, the downstream demand was limited, and the price support for maleic anhydride was insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of business club, the current spot supply of maleic anhydride market is too small, which is difficult to effectively alleviate in a short period of time, and enterprises have a good attitude of supporting prices. A small number of enterprises have raised their prices, and it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will be firm in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the weekly average quotation of domestic industrial grade formic acid is 1800 yuan / ton, and the overall formic acid market this week remains stable with little market fluctuation.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole remained stable, with saturated inventory and no significant market adjustment. This week, manufacturers and dealers generally maintain the early price without obvious adjustment, and the devices of manufacturers and dealers are normal. It is understood that the price quoted by enterprises is generally maintained at around 1800 yuan / ton. Due to the continuous price reduction of the stock gradually saturated in the previous period, the supply of goods in the market has been eased. Enterprises should give priority to multi-dimensional and stable quotation. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of formic acid is about 1537.5 yuan / ton, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is between 1950-2700 yuan / ton. Zhejiang, Hubei and other places due to high freight costs or source production costs, high prices. As of Friday (July 10), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1650 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1450 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou Xiangcheng San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1350 yuan / ton.

The liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products continued the general trend and maintained stability, local narrow range adjustment trend, the price of caustic soda was stable and small, the shipping rhythm was fair, the future market was stable, and some manufacturers adjusted their prices. The support of upstream products to formic acid market is fair, while the demand of leather and pesticide industry of downstream products is relatively cold, and there is not much receiving.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data analyst of the business society, the current domestic market price of industrial grade 85% formic acid has gradually stabilized, but the price is still at a low and stable state. The supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream demand is relatively cold, and there is insufficient support for the formic acid market. Most enterprises hold a stable attitude. It is estimated that 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market will be stable in the short term.

In June, the overall LPG civil market rose slightly, and the period was dominated by shocks. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on June 1, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 2750.00 yuan / ton, and the average price on 30 days was 2793.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.58% during the period and the maximum earthquake amplitude was 4.95%.

Specification, mode of transportation, region, date, mainstream price

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China June 30 2450-2650 yuan / ton

Civil gas and motor transportation in East China June 30 2600-2800 yuan / ton

Domestic gas transportation to South China June 30 2310-2480 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province June 30, 2600-2680 yuan / ton

Transportation of civil gas to Northeast China by automobile on June 30, 2350-2712 yuan / ton

Civil gas transportation by truck along the river on June 30, 2580-2650 yuan / ton

In the first ten days of June (1-10), the market was dominated. The trend of international crude oil is good. On the 2nd, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil respectively reached the high points in recent three months, and the price of Saudi Aramco CP in June was higher than expected, which brought benefits to the market. Liquefied gas (LPG) was actively pushed up. The domestic gas in Shandong increased by 50-100 yuan / T, and the national market also rose to varying degrees. The downstream mentality is good, the market replenishment is positive, the factory shipment situation is good, the price is firm, rises for three days in a row.

In the middle of June (10-20), the market mainly fell. Affected by seasonal factors, the weather temperature is high, the market demand is limited, the terminal consumption is general, and multi-dimensional rigid demand is maintained. As the price goes up, the downstream breeds a mentality of resistance. With the completion of replenishment, one after another delisted to consume inventory. The market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The atmosphere of market transaction is obviously weakened, and the manufacturer’s ex factory price is loose. Then, under the impact of crude oil slump on November 11, the market lacked favorable support, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry weakened, the pressure of manufacturers to ship goods was greater, and the overall weakness was reduced. In the later period, the market was boosted again by the continuous rise of international crude oil for 3 days, and LPG followed the rise. But this rally was too short-lived, only two days after the rise turned back to the downward channel.

Until late June (20-30), the market first rose and then fell. Due to the approaching of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the demand for replenishment before the downstream Festival, the market entry was more positive, the market trading atmosphere was better, the manufacturers’ shipment situation improved, and the price rose slightly. However, manufacturers’ inventory has not been fully released, and affected by seasonal factors, manufacturers’ shipment is difficult, and then it goes down again after the festival. In terms of supply, the start-up of manufacturers is relatively stable, and the supply of civil gas has slightly increased compared with last week.

In June, the overall atmosphere of shipment was flat, and most manufacturers were still in a state of imbalance between production and sales. In July, the Saudi Aramco CP was introduced, and the propylene butane increased by US $10 / T, better than expected, which brought obvious support to the market. However, the traditional off-season in July has not passed, and the demand of the terminal market in summer is limited. It is expected that the market will rise first and then fall in August.

1、 Price trend

On July 3, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3617 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, according to business agency data.

On July 2, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3495 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton or 0.29% from the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 2, ethylene glycol inventory in the mainstream reservoir areas of East China was about 1350400 tons, an increase of 52400 tons or 4.04% compared with last Thursday, and 41000 tons or 3.13% higher than that of Monday.

In terms of shipment, the average daily delivery of Zhangjiagang main port is about 7200 tons, and that of Taicang two warehouses is about 7100 tons, which is basically the same as last week.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 51%, which is lower than last week. The operating rate of polyester is about 87%, which is the same as last week.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol plant of Inner Mongolia Yigao Coal Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 120000 tons, has been shut down for maintenance at the end of March, and is now scheduled to restart at the end of July. The annual output of 360000 tons of ethylene glycol plant in Taiwan is planned to be overhauled on July 15, and the overhaul is expected to take one month.

In terms of futures, due to the lack of good news transmission on the periphery, ethylene glycol futures fluctuated at a low level, and the boost was weak.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the continuous development of global public health events, consumption has been greatly reduced, and ethylene glycol imports continue to flow in, resulting in the backlog of port inventory. Although domestic ethylene glycol manufacturers have reduced the start-up load to avoid risks, due to insufficient demand and the commissioning of new units, the downstream can not digest it. In the long run, affected by the global economic downturn, the situation of ethylene glycol accumulation is difficult to improve temporarily, and the price will continue to fluctuate and consolidate.

In June, the trend of domestic liquid ammonia market was full of twists and turns. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since June, for example, the liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has rebounded from the drop and then stabilized. Due to the overhaul of a large plant in Shandong Province at the beginning of the month, a large number of liquid ammonia were shipped in some areas. The manufacturers reduced the price sharply, from 3000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2500 yuan / ton in the first ten days of the month. At the same time, the low-cost source of goods had a crowding out effect on the surrounding areas, implicating the surrounding areas to follow the price reduction, and the prices of the whole northern region dropped significantly. However, with the resumption of production in mid June, the manufacturers consumed a large amount of liquid ammonia, which reduced the pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory and market supply. Therefore, after the middle of June, the price of liquid ammonia rebounded rapidly. At the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia in Northern China was generally 2700-2900 yuan / ton.

In this month, the upstream coal market is not good enough to boost the downstream market. The anthracite lump coal market continues to decline in a weak way. Especially in the middle and late ten days, the output of coal mines in the main production areas increased significantly compared with the previous period, and the price of coal mines in Shanxi Province dropped to 800 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 30-40 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream, in June, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia was still poor, urea also experienced the first rise and then fall. In the middle and late ten days, the market had fallen back to all the previous gains. In addition, monoammonium phosphate was also weak, with a limited increase (0.50%), which is currently in the off-season of fertilizer. Specifically, in the aspect of compound fertilizer, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is generally at 40% this month, and it shows a trend of gradual decline from the middle of the month to the end of the month, and the enterprise operating rate drops to less than 40% at the end of the month. In terms of urea inventory, the enterprise’s inventory increased for two consecutive weeks in the middle and last ten days, and the inventory exceeded 400000 tons in one week at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the inventory of compound fertilizer exceeded 500000 tons, increasing for three consecutive weeks. The pressure of inventory gradually increased, and the market demand became weaker.

In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure is on the rise, and the operating rate of enterprises is high. Although the favorable agricultural demand in some areas such as northeast China is still continuing, it may continue to weaken in the later stage, and the industrial demand is weak for a long time. It is expected that the liquid ammonia market will remain weak in July, and the price will not be ruled out to fall again.