1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on January 27 was 4023.33 yuan / ton, 116.7 yuan or 2.99% higher than 3906.67 yuan / ton the day before, and 30.2% higher than the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

On January 27, the domestic liquefied natural gas market rose by about 3%, and the liquid prices in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia and other places rose actively. The price in Shanxi increased by 400 yuan / ton. Last week, the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, and the price was generally concentrated around 4500 yuan / ton. The high price fell down, and the market returned to rationality. Entering this week, the liquid price stopped falling and rose, but the rise slowed down significantly compared with the previous period, and generally fluctuated in the range of 50-200 yuan / ton. In recent days, the temperature has dropped, and the northern region is facing the rain and snow weather again. The demand of urban fuel has picked up, and the pressure of liquid plant’s shipment is not big. At the same time, due to the rapid decline of price in the early stage and the sharp decrease of profit, the liquid plant actively supports the holiday. However, near the Spring Festival, the downstream users have a holiday ahead of time, the purchasing enthusiasm has declined, and the demand side may be weakened, and the liquid price in the future will continue to rise.

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on January 27 was 4023.33 yuan / ton, 116.7 yuan or 2.99% higher than 3906.67 yuan / ton the day before, and 30.2% higher than the same period last year. Inner Mongolia increased by 50-200 yuan / ton, Shaanxi increased by 30-250 yuan / ton, Ningxia increased by 100-150 yuan / ton. The price of liquid rose positively.

 

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Date of quotation (yuan / ton)

Inner Mongolia LNG 3700-4300 January 27

Shaanxi LNG 3850-4080 January 27

Xinjiang ﹣ liquefied natural gas ﹣ 2800-4000 ﹣ January 27

Ningxia LNG 3800-4000 January 27

Shanxi LNG 3850-4350 January 27

Hebei LNG 4500-4800 January 27

Henan LNG 4400-4800 January 27

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 25, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong Province was 2335 yuan / ton. After the new year, the price rose by 1.08%, fell by 0.85% on a month on month basis, and increased by 4.12% on a year-on-year basis. Higher freight, higher costs for traders, domestic methanol spot market is relatively strong. In the future, the freight will not be reduced, the cost of traders will not be low, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement will not be high, and some downstream enterprises such as formaldehyde will stop for holidays one after another, with limited support from the demand side. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

 

Urea, January 27, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. In late January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand has declined. At the beginning of the week, urea supply is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the market will mainly fall. /p>

 

Dichloromethane: on January 27, the market of methane chloride in Shandong Province went down. At present, the completion rate of goods preparation in the downstream market of dichloromethane is relatively high, and the demand for dichloromethane is weak. In addition, the price of raw materials in the upstream is declining, which leads to a sharp drop in the price of dichloromethane. It is expected that the market of dichloromethane will be weak in a short time.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: near the end of the month, the temperature drops, the northern region is facing the rain and snow weather again, the demand of urban fuel has picked up, the pressure of liquid plant shipping is not big, actively support the price, the year is coming, downstream users have to stop work and have holidays, the purchasing enthusiasm drops, the demand side may weaken, the liquid price continues to rise in the future, the action force is insufficient, and the expected callback probability is large.

Thiourea

Price trend:

 

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market rose in the second half of January, and the spot prices of various brands rose in the third week. As of January 26, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was about 16650 yuan / ton, up 5.71% from the average price level at the beginning of January.

 

Factor analysis:

 

ABS upstream styrene market recently overall negative. Crude oil remained stable, pure benzene finished in a narrow market, ethylene fell in a weak position, styrene cost support surface was acceptable, and overall styrene position decreased in the outer market. In the third week, the import source was obviously less, the port inventory accumulation was slow, the operation rate of domestic styrene rose, and the supply on the site was good. As the downstream plants gradually enter the period of production reduction or shutdown, the demand for styrene shrinks again. Generally speaking, with the advent of seasonal off-season, the demand support is not strong. It is expected that in the short term, the market will once again periodically suppress the profit of styrene production, and styrene may adjust in a weak way,

 

Butadiene market continued to decline in the first half of the month, the current decline has slowed down. The main reason is that the supply side of the domestic market has increased significantly, and some maintenance devices have started to restart and release capacity in the early stage. At the same time, the external supply is also sufficient, and the prices are constantly falling, which affects the domestic market mentality. Under the drag of supply, the butadiene market was in a weak downward trend, and there was a certain bottom support for the price of butadiene in the recent downstream pre Festival stock, forming a pattern of price decline slowing down and the market gradually deadlocked. At present, the market is lack of good guidance, and it is expected that the market consolidation will mainly wait and see.

 

In late January, the domestic ABS market went out of a small upsurge. Although the upstream raw materials fluctuated and the cost support weakened, recently it was in the pre holiday stock up stage, and the downstream factories just needed to stock up. The supply of ABS in China is fair, but the volume of stock transaction is large, and some brands such as 0215a and 417 are in short supply to a certain extent. In some areas, the market rose with the trend. Entering the end of the month, the current downstream just need to stock gradually ended, market trading weakened, medium-term expected short.

 

Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that: in late January, the ABS market remained stable after its strength, and the prices of some brands rose considerably. The cost side of the market is different, the overall support of ABS cost side is not strong. At present, with the end of downstream goods preparation, the market atmosphere is gradually weakening. The market will enter the off-season of demand during the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will stagnate in the near future and begin to callback.

Thiourea

1. Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2084.67 yuan / ton on January 18, and 2118 yuan / ton on January 25, with an increase of 1.6% in seven days.

 

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 18, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, and on January 25, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, rising by 2.05% in seven days.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In the middle and late January, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise, the year was approaching, the purchase of downstream compound fertilizer came to an end, a small amount of replenishment, monoammonium phosphate stopped reporting, the number of enterprises increased, the main orders were issued, and the price rose slightly. At present, 55% of the factory price of ammonium phosphate in Anhui Province is 2105 yuan / T. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder is 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 58% ammonium powder is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintains stable operation, and 55% of the ex factory price of powdered ammonium is about 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong Province is 2150-2200 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton.

 

In the middle and late January, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise, the supply of goods was tight, the demand at home and abroad was good, the heat of inquiry increased, the sales pressure of enterprises was not high, and the price support psychology was obvious. At present, 64% of diammonium phosphate’s mainstream ex factory quotation in Hubei was 2500-2600 yuan / T, and 64% of diammonium phosphate’s main export factory quotation in Gansu was 2650 yuan / T. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 2750-2900 yuan / ton. In Guizhou Province, the mainstream ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium is 2850 yuan / ton, while in Heilongjiang Province, the first station advance collection quotation of 64% diammonium rises to 2950-3050 yuan / ton.

 

As a whole, the market of raw phosphorus ore continues to run at a high and stable level. At present, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is general, the operation rate of the mine is not high, and the orders are mostly from old customers. Near the Spring Festival, some terminal downstream enterprises in the domestic phosphorus ore market have stopped production one after another, and the business trading atmosphere is general. More concentrated supply of early orders, business community phosphorus ore analysts believe that the general demand, the recent phosphorus ore market adjustment is limited, will continue to be stable for operation.

 

Import and export data of monoammonium phosphate: in November 2020, China’s import volume of monoammonium phosphate was 450 kg, the amount was US $2, 412, and the average unit price was US $5360.00/t. In November 2020, China’s export volume of monoammonium phosphate is 253400 tons, with a total amount of US $90212 560 and an average unit price of US $356.07/ton.

 

Import and export data of diammonium phosphate: in December 2020, China’s import volume of diammonium phosphate was 76kg, the amount was 424 US dollars, and the average unit price was 5578.95 US dollars / ton. In December 2020, China’s diammonium phosphate export volume is 491400 tons, the total amount is 177402749 US dollars, and the average unit price is 361.03 US dollars / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business community ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the current ammonium phosphate Market is warm, manufacturers have no pressure to ship, prices rise steadily. At the end of the year, the purchase of downstream compound fertilizer is coming to an end, with a small amount of replenishment, the stop of monoammonium phosphate, the increase of enterprises, the main orders, and the price rising slightly. It is expected that the price will not fluctuate much in the short term, and the stable operation will be dominant. The supply of DAP is tight and unchanged, the demand at home and abroad is good, the heat of inquiry is increasing, the sales pressure of enterprises is not high, and the price support psychology is obvious. Under the support of favorable conditions, DAP is expected to have a strong trend, and there is no lack of rising expectations.

Thiourea

This week, the price of ethylene oxide in East China is still 7500 yuan / ton, that in North China is 7650 yuan / ton, that in South China is 7500 yuan / ton, that in Central China is 7700 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 7450-7550 yuan / ton.

 

This week, the price of ethylene fell from $1045 / T on Monday to $955 / T today (CFR Northeast Asia price), the price of raw materials fell, and the negative factors on the cost side increased. The difference between the north and the south of the downstream monomer is obvious. The epidemic situation in the south is sporadic, which has little impact on daily production and life. According to market participants, the monomer market is fair at present, and the downstream manufacturers are preparing goods. However, affected by the local aggregation of the epidemic situation, the logistics transportation in the north is not smooth, resulting in the overall downturn of the monomer Market in the north, market participants pointed out, The demand outlook is bearish. Next week, the unit price may go down, and the goods preparation has not started yet, or it will be postponed to around the lunar new year. The price of ethylene glycol dropped slightly and fluctuated, which generally supported the supply side of ethylene oxide. Overall, the supply and demand pattern is weak.

 

Temporarily stable, the market may decline slightly before the year.

Thiourea

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

 

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

On January 21, the market price of propylene oxide fell. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 21, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 17933.33 yuan / ton, down 3.58% compared with the previous trading day, down 6.27% compared with the beginning of the week, and up 0.75% compared with December 21, 2020. At present, the inventory pressure of the factory is still controllable, the supplier gives up the profit to ship, the market of propylene oxide falls, the downstream maintains the just need to purchase, the overall rhythm of the market is slightly slow, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17500-17700 yuan / ton.

 

Upstream propylene, on January 20, Shandong propylene market price was mainly stable. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. It rose by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. Later, it was stable or rose, and the overall rise was in a ladder shape. This month, it has risen by about 250-300 yuan / ton. Today, it is not moving. The market transaction is between 7450-7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7450 yuan / ton. Now the factory has no pressure on inventory, and the delivery is smooth.

 

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 20, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol reference 13300 yuan / ton, increased by 17.35% compared with the beginning of the month; downstream soft foam polyether, on January 20, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong decreased, the price of raw material propylene oxide decreased, the cost support weakened, although the inventory of downstream raw materials was low, the operation was cautious, just need to take a small order It is mainly distributed.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that at present, the impact of changes in the cost side is limited, the pace of downstream soft foam polyether is slowing down slightly, the terminal purchasing mentality is cautious, and the risk aversion and wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be in a weak consolidation operation, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

Thiourea