1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

Mannheim potassium sulfate factory: about 2700 50% powder; about 2800 50% particle and 52% water-soluble powder. At present, the agricultural demand for potash fertilizer is increasing, the start-up of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing significantly, the upstream potassium chloride market is also rising gradually, and the potassium sulfate Market is getting better. Manheim potassium sulfate plant shutdown maintenance situation is more, some areas of hydrochloric acid paste Market is still unable to break the situation. Up to now, the operating rate of the whole industry of potassium sulphate in China is about 50%, that is to say, the operating rate of potassium sulphate in Mannheim and water salt system has basically recovered to about 50%. According to the judgment and suggestions in the early stage, when the operating rate of the industry is higher than 50%, the pressure will gradually increase, but it is still in the peak season, and some digestion in the early stage, so most manufacturers will not appear in the short term Obvious pressure. Potassium sulfate Market is mainly because the low operating rate catches up with the demand and starts to release. In addition to some hype, there is still a lack of sustained power for the time being. In March, the main concern is the change of cost and price, followed by the change of operating rate and inventory.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of potassium sulphate of business association think that in the future, more attention should be paid to the price, operating rate, inventory rate and transportation of upstream potassium chloride. In the short term, the price of potassium sulphate is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the domestic adipic acid Market in February has not changed much compared with that before the year, and the quotation is slightly lower, down 0.74% in the whole month. The quotation of dealers is partially lower, not much, up to 50-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation as of February 28 is generally 8000-8200 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

This month, the adipic acid market was weak and stable, the market was generally affected by the epidemic situation, the supply and demand were not strong, and the transaction fell into freezing point. In most regions, the price of adipic acid has not changed much since the beginning of the month. The price of adipic acid has reached a low level within one year. Some dealers have slightly reduced their prices. Basically, the supply pressure and weak market demand caused by poor transportation are the main factors that hinder adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. In addition, the cost side has lost support again. The continuous low price of pure benzene has made the adipic acid Market snow Frost. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved, and the downstream operating rate has been at the lowest point in the whole February. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated, the market has not reversed the upward momentum, and the enterprise inventory and market inventory remain at a high level, which is inseparable from the current low demand and low procurement, and is also a secondary problem brought by transportation. This is also the adipic acid price did not usher in an important reason for the rebound after the year.

From a regional perspective: the prices in East China and South China are still low, some prices have been lowered, and the demand is weak. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, the price of pure benzene re entered the downward channel in February. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of pure benzene fell by 7.37% in February. On the one hand, the downward price of the upstream made adipic acid not supported, but on the other hand, it alleviated part of the pressure of the current manufacturers. As the procurement of the downstream manufacturers shrank, adipic acid could not be refunded, so it could only maintain the low price level.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large. After the year, the factory’s operating rate slowly recovered to the level before the festival, and the factory’s inventory gradually accumulated. On the contrary, there are not many dealers returning to work and entering the market, and the inventory pressure is not large. The market inventory is generally at both ends. To a large extent, it is affected by the downturn in the downstream purchase orders. In addition, the manufacturer’s unit operating rate is now back to normal, coupled with the downturn in the export market, and the excessive supply pressure is an important reason why the adipic acid price has not come out of the weak market.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, in February, the downstream procurement is still not strong. At present, the downstream centralized stock up behavior has not appeared, and most of the procurement is on demand. The enthusiasm of stock up is not high. In 2020, the nylon 66 market is even more sluggish, and the downstream operation rate continues to decline, basically below 50%. Especially affected by the epidemic situation, the nylon 66 market has fallen to the freezing point, and there is no adipic acid in the upstream A strong boost was generated. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since the middle of December last year. As of February 28, the decline of PA66 was 2.39% (as shown in the figure above). The downturn in the downstream market is the decisive factor for the difficulty of adipic acid getting out of the predicament.

3、 Future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that the weak market of adipic acid continued years ago after the festival. In the middle and later stages of the festival, it is not likely that the price will reverse. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can be followed up, especially the time point for small and medium-sized dealers to return to work. It is expected that as the epidemic situation in China gradually comes to an end, the small and medium-sized enterprises The dealers are back to work in an all-round way, and adipic acid inventory is expected to be further digested. At the same time, the downstream operating rate will also be further improved. Considering the oversold of the current market, adipic acid is expected to have a certain rebound.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, the price of pure benzene on Friday (February 21) was 5050-5800 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene on Friday was 5100-5800 yuan / ton, showing a downward trend of shock, down 1.28% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: this week, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene was weak, crude oil and external market fell, and the support under pure benzene was insufficient. The lack of downstream shipping power and inventory accumulation further worsened the confidence of pure benzene market participants. On Wednesday, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 5350 yuan / ton.

2. Crude oil: this week’s crude oil changed from last week’s continuous rise, falling for four consecutive days, WTI fell to the lowest point of this year. The spread of the epidemic in many countries has led to increased market worries and a pressure drop in oil prices. Brent fell 10.76% and WTI fell 11.41% compared with February 21.

3. Downstream industry: the demand for downstream styrene is not strong, and the inventory pressure is high. The price on Friday was 6700 yuan / ton, 1.01% higher than last week.

Due to the fact that the Jinling aniline plant is still in operation, the downstream procurement is not prosperous but the price of aniline is stable.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: next week’s oil price will focus on the progress of epidemic control.

2. Market: the contradiction between supply and demand of pure benzene enterprises is prominent. The large refinery in Northeast China has been restarted. The load will be increased in the later period, and the supply pressure will be further increased. Therefore, the market is difficult to improve significantly.

It is expected that pure benzene will still operate weakly next week.

1、 Price trend:

On February 27, crude benzene commodity index was 66.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.73% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 68.84% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the bidding price of crude benzene market is stable this week, most manufacturers haven’t made major adjustment, the start-up of coking enterprises is still low, and the output of crude benzene, tar, and other by-products has declined significantly. Although the start-up of downstream hydrobenzene enterprises has gradually recovered, the crude oil and pure benzene prices have fallen sharply. The listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene has been lowered to 5350 yuan / ton. This week, the hydrobenzene market in Shandong Province has declined slightly by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the cost pressure of hydrobenzene enterprises is relatively high. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene in Shandong was 4120-4180 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton from last week.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil: this week, the crude oil changed the form of continuous increase last week, falling for four consecutive days, and WTI fell to the lowest point of this year. The spread of the epidemic in many countries has led to increased market worries and a pressure drop in oil prices. Brent was down 10.76% and WTI was down 11.41% compared with February 21.. Pure benzene: this week, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene was weak, crude oil and external market fell, and the support under pure benzene was insufficient. The lack of downstream shipping power and inventory accumulation further worsened the confidence of pure benzene market participants. On Wednesday, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 5350 yuan / ton. Downstream: demand for downstream styrene is not strong, and inventory pressure is high. Friday’s price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 1.01% from last week.

3、 Trend Forecast:

Next week, oil prices will focus on the progress of epidemic control. The contradiction between supply and demand of pure benzene enterprises is prominent. The downstream enterprises of pure benzene are currently operating at a low level, so it is difficult for crude benzene market to have a good support. It is expected that the fluctuation of crude benzene market will be limited in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2890.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2873.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.58%, up 4.87% year on year. On the whole, carbide market fell slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index at 75.28 on February 28.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week: oveganone’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2850 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2750 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia’s quotation for calcium carbide this week was 2820 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Xingping Ningxia’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2950 yuan / ton , compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2700-3000 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2950 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2800 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: this week, the ex factory quotation of Lancan is temporarily stable, the quotation of small materials is 730.00 yuan / ton, the quotation of medium materials is 820 yuan / ton, and the quotation of large materials is 880 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price fell slightly this week. PVC price dropped from 6587.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6337.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.80%, up 0.60% year on year. This week, the price of PVC in the downstream fell, but compared with last year, the price is higher, and the downstream PVC plant is gradually starting, which has a high enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. As a whole, PVC market this week has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, and the cost support is not enough. However, the transportation situation tends to be normal gradually. The downstream PVC plant starts gradually, and the downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. In the early March, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise in shock.