1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic propane market is in a broad downward trend. As of January 14, the average price of the domestic propane market is 4867.5 yuan / ton. Prices rose 16.03% month on month and 15% year on year.

2、 Influencing factors

Products: on the 14th, the propane (Shandong) market fell broadly, and the trading atmosphere was light. The price of propane (Shandong) was reduced by 100-200 yuan / ton in Shandong area. Currently, the ex factory price is 4800-5000 yuan / ton, most of which are below 5000 yuan / ton. In the morning, international crude oil continued to decline and close, with a bearish market mentality and a cautious downstream mentality, mainly on the sidelines. In the early stage, propane rose to a high level, and the downstream acceptance capacity was limited. In addition, the current international market news was bad, most refineries lowered their prices, giving priority to profit shipment. Currently, CP is expected to decline in February.

3、 Future forecast

At present, propane market is mainly weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, mainly wait-and-see. The refinery inventory is relatively high. The price is lowered, and the profit is mainly delivered. It is expected that there is still room for reduction in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the market price of DAP this week maintained stable operation. On January 6, the average ex factory price of 64% DAP in China was 2200 yuan / ton, and on January 12, the average ex factory price of 64% DAP in China was 2200 yuan / ton, maintaining a stable price. So far, the diammonium phosphate commodity index on January 13 is 65.62, which is the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 36.28% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in recent years, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been in a weak and stable state of operation. During this period, some mining enterprises reduced their prices or limited production slightly to meet the market demand in the off-season. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, mines around the country gradually stopped mining, and some enterprises in Hubei and Sichuan are now in the phase of shutdown. Some enterprises in Guizhou also have maintenance plans before and after the Spring Festival. Liquid ammonia fell 8% this week, mainly because some enterprises cut prices sharply in the middle of the week. The previous high price, affected by market trends, led to a sharp drop in prices. At the end of the week, most manufacturers’ quotations were flat compared with last week. At present, the local ammonia quantity is abundant, especially some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply of goods, and the enterprise’s delivery pressure is increasing gradually. However, the manufacturers with large ammonia quantity mainly stabilize their prices, and continue to deliver goods.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

DAP analysts believe that raw material prices are low, demand follow-up is weak, price increases are blocked, and many transportation is not smooth. It is expected that the price of DAP will keep stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R134a rose this week. On January 6, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23166.67 yuan / ton, and on the weekend (10 days), the average price was 23333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.72% in the week. On January 10, the R134a commodity index was 85.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.63% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2019-09-02), 8% from the lowest point on November 12, 2019 2.93 points up 2.94%. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: Refrigerant Market R134a rose this week. At present, the market of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform at the raw material end is relatively stable, and some regions form support for refrigerant R134a according to their own adjustment; the vehicle industry’s refrigerant stock is slightly improved, the terminal air conditioning industry maintains rigid demand, the delivery and investment is flat, and the business confidence is insufficient, but at present, the refrigerant R134a has limited supply in the market, which is good for the upward price. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of January 10, the quotation of R134a of Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. in Quzhou is 21500 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang technology is 23000 yuan / ton, that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 23000 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 21500 yuan / ton, that of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 23000 yuan / ton, that of blue planet is 25000 yuan / ton, and that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 21500 yuan / ton – 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid and hydrofluoric acid of upstream products is stable temporarily. In the near future, the factory in the field is in a general situation, and the spot supply in the field is normal. The terminal and air-conditioning market are weak in purchase and sale, the inventory in the field is acceptable, the construction is insufficient, the automobile industry is preparing goods for temperature return, and the refrigerant R134a price is favorable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, the supply of refrigerant R134a in the market is still in a tight state, and it is expected that the price of refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in the short term. Considering the new production capacity in the future, there is limited room for growth.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: MTBE market price fell slightly this week (January 6-11)

The price of MTBE at the end of this week was 5466 yuan / ton, down 1.5% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

2、 Market analysis

Products: both the international oil price and the gasoline market price have declined, MTBE manufacturers have increased the task of warehouse arrangement before the festival, and the MTBE market price has declined slightly.

Industry chain: this week, international crude oil continued to fall. At present, it is estimated that the price adjustment of domestic refined oil on January 14 will be increased by 60 yuan / ton, but the price adjustment of refined oil is more likely to be stranded, and the market of refined oil will fall slightly. Domestic MTBE prices fell slightly by 1.5% this week.

MTBE Market: on January 8, Trump’s speech on the US Iraq issue eased the international situation, accelerated the downward collapse of oil prices, while the domestic gasoline demand did not substantially improve, MTBE just needed insufficient support, and the price of MTBE manufacturers began to decline near the weekend under the difficulty of shipping. Alkylated oil is also discharged before the festival, so as to make profits go down.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business agency, the bullish mood of gasoline market is not high at present. Although the demand for gasoline market may be improved during the Spring Festival holiday, and MTBE manufacturers are mainly in the inventory before the festival, so they are not willing to hold the price. MTBE market price is expected to remain stable next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, on January 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market was weak and stable. Based on several sample areas, the average ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore was around 403 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that at the end of 2019.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since winter, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been in a weak and stable operation state. During this period, some mining enterprises slightly reduced their prices or limited production to meet the market demand in the off-season. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total phosphorus ore production from January to November 2019 amounted to 84.66 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 3.0% (after correction). Moreover, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, mines around the country gradually stopped mining, Hubei, April Some enterprises in Sichuan are now in the phase of shutdown. Some enterprises in Guizhou also have maintenance plans before and after the Spring Festival. At present, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore in Yunnan is 275 yuan / ton; the price of 29% grade phosphate ore in Yunnan is 320 yuan / ton; the price of 30% ammonium phosphate ore in Guizhou is 340-360 yuan / ton; the price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is 360 yuan / ton; the price of 30% Liushugou in Hubei in Central China The quotation of grade phosphorus ore is about 440 yuan / ton; the quotation of 26% grade high magnesium phosphorus ore in Mabian area of Sichuan Province is about 250 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: up to the 8th, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is general, and the market trading atmosphere is light. In Guizhou yellow phosphorus market, the current mainstream transaction price is about 17000 yuan / ton; in Yunnan, the mainstream price is about 16400 yuan / ton; in Sichuan, the mainstream price is about 17000 yuan / ton. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, wait-and-see mood is obvious. In the case of low start-up rate, yellow phosphorus spot is tight, near the end of yellow phosphorus adjustment space is still limited, it is expected that the future market will be stable.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the close of the year, the production suspension and production restriction of the mining enterprises, the limited order delivery and the weak downstream demand are expected. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will be in weak and stable operation before and after the Spring Festival.