According to statistics, in 2020, the price trend of domestic rare earth market will increase mainly. The price of neodymium Series in domestic light rare earth market will increase greatly, neodymium oxide and metal neodymium will increase by about 70%, while the price of heavy rare earth market will increase slightly, but the price of terbium series will rise to a 10-year high. The price trend of some domestic rare earth products in 2020 is as follows:

 

At the beginning of the year, the price of neodymium oxide in the domestic market rose by 286.75 yuan / ton, and the price of neodymium oxide in the end of 2000 was 286.065 yuan / ton, The market price at the end of the year was 410000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 44.37%; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy at the beginning of the year was 362000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 40.88%; the price of praseodymium oxide at the beginning of the year was 342500 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 2.92%; the price of praseodymium metal at the beginning of the year was 650000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 575000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 2.92% In 2020, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic rare earth market will be sharp, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise by a large margin.

 

According to statistics, the domestic market price of dysprosium oxide at the beginning of the year is 1750000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1930000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 10.29%; the price of dysprosium metal at the beginning of the year is 2125000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 2425000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 14.12%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy at the beginning of the year is 1720000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1920000 yuan / ton The annual increase was 11.63%, and the domestic heavy rare earth market prices increased to varying degrees.

 

It can be seen from the rare earth industry index chart that the price trend of domestic rare earth market can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of August, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market is in the stage of shock rising; the second stage is from September to the end of October, and the domestic rare earth market price is in the stage of soaring; the third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of the year.

 

In the first stage, the price of domestic rare earth market fluctuated and rose. During this period, affected by domestic and international public health events, the supply of rare earth decreased and the imbalance between supply and demand led to the price rise of domestic rare earth market. In the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of the annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar customs still has a tight impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth, once the purchase and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the tight supply and demand and price rise of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium. Recently, the market in the market is general, and the price of heavy rare earth remains at a high level; in addition, with the resumption of work and production, the market of terminal new energy vehicles is picking up, the domestic supply of terbium rare earth is very tight, and the domestic price of terbium rare earth is rising. In terms of domestic light rare earths, driven by the positive promotion of new infrastructure projects all over the country, the price of rare earths continued to rise. The bullish attitude of on-site goods holders was obvious, and the merchants were reluctant to sell. The on-site rising sentiment was strong. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the import volume of overseas rare earth minerals declined significantly, and the waste recycling and monazite raw materials decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic rare earth smelting output, The recovery of domestic economy led to the recovery of downstream demand of rare earth, which supported the price of rare earth. The price of domestic light rare earth market continued to rise, and the price of domestic rare earth market gradually recovered and rose.

 

The second stage is from September to the end of October, when the price of domestic rare earth market rises and falls. At this stage, the price of PR nd Series in domestic light rare earths continued to fall. At present, the purchase in the industry has come to an end. In the early stage, the downstream stock preparation is more active, and some manufacturers are hoarding more goods. Recently, the purchasing sentiment has fallen down. In addition, under the influence of the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the price of PR nd Series in domestic light rare earths continued to fall. On the other hand, the market supply of PR nd rare earths in China is normal recently. In addition to the decline of downstream inquiries, the major manufacturers of light rare earths have sold off. The downstream feel the market mood change, the trading situation is declining, and the floor price is falling. The supply of light rare earth is normal, and the recent purchase is not active, so the market price is under pressure. During this period, the price of dysprosium series heavy rare earths in China also dropped correspondingly. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earths in the annual output in the domestic rare earth acquisition and storage plan is relatively large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths. In addition, the current closure of Myanmar customs still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths, but the situation of acquisition and storage is uncertain, the market demand is not improved, and the price is gradually increasing However, due to the tight supply, the price of terbium series has been at a high level. However, the domestic rare earth downstream procurement is not active, and the on-site inventory is high, which leads to the price drop of domestic rare earth market.

 

The third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of November, when the price of domestic rare earth market rises sharply. With the rapid development of wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries, as the epidemic slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, the demand may continue to pick up, and the demand for NdFeB continues to increase. However, the domestic supply side is still in a contraction situation, and the supply and demand are seriously unbalanced, resulting in the crazy price rise of domestic NdFeB Market. Recently, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers is relatively positive. Due to the increase of overseas demand, with the “export control law of the people’s Republic of China” officially coming into effect on December 1, the market expects that China’s rare earth export may be further reduced, and the global supply of rare earth may be further reduced. At that time, the supply of rare earth will be more tense, which will further promote the domestic market price. Compared with the market price of neodymium series, the domestic heavy rare earth market price also has a corresponding rise. Dysprosium and terbium series market is still a model of heavy rare earth market. Under the new situation, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to improve. The United States, Japan and Europe and the United States have made corresponding plans to include rare earth into the national strategic resource reserve plan. The advantages of rare earth strategic resources are prominent. China is a large rare earth reserve country, with rare earth reserves accounting for 37% of the world. At the same time, China is also a large rare earth exporter. The country has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry, and the rare earth industry is heading for high quality The domestic rare earth market price trend is strong.

 

The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to issue the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2020. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining, smelting separation in 2020 will be 140000 tons and 130000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2019 will be 132000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons, and 2020 is the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise declaration, forming the collection of supporting policies related to the resumption of rare earth industry. With favorable policies to support the development of rare earth industry and tense Sino US relations, the key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance.

 

In 2020, the price trend of domestic rare earth market has increased in varying degrees. The price of domestic light rare earth market has increased greatly, and the heavy rare earth market has been at a high level. The price of terbium series has risen to a 10-year high. In addition, the country’s rectification of the rare earth industry is becoming more and more serious. In 2020, the amount of rare earth mining has also increased, and the development of new energy vehicles is faster and faster. At the same time, on December 1, the export control law of the people’s Republic of China officially came into effect. The market expects that China’s rare earth exports may be further reduced, and the global supply of rare earth may be further contracted. At that time, the supply of rare earth will be more tense, forming a certain positive support for the domestic rare earth market. Chen Ling, rare earth analyst of business society, predicts that the development of rare earth industry will continue to improve in 2021. The domestic heavy rare earth market price may maintain a high level, while the domestic light rare earth market is at a high level. The price may maintain a high level in 2021, and there is no lack of the possibility of a small rise.

Thiourea

This week, the international crude oil price rebounded, the gasoline market fell slightly, the domestic demand for MTBE and other intermediate materials weakened, and the MTBE market price fell. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE on December 25 was 4150 yuan / ton, down 1.19% compared with the price at the beginning of the week.

 

The international crude oil price recovered this week, with WTI crude oil price down 2.05% and Brent crude oil price down 1.76%. The recent cold weather, coupled with the advent of new year’s Day holiday, increased demand for car travel, and after the domestic oil product price adjustment “three consecutive rises”, the demand for terminal oil products increased. However, it was reported that the mutation virus was found in the UK, the international crude oil price rebounded, the domestic terminal oil market demand cooled, and the market price fell slightly. The gasoline delivery of refineries weakened, the purchasing intention of raw materials decreased significantly under the guidance of the bearish sentiment of refineries, and the price reduction and promotion actions were often taken by MTBE manufacturers when the delivery was not smooth. On the whole, the downward trend of crude oil and gasoline prices slowed down the domestic MTBE market procurement demand, resulting in the price reduction and promotion of MTBE manufacturers.

 

According to the MTBE product analyst of business society energy branch, although the crude oil and gasoline prices are facing the risk of continuous decline, the recent cold weather and holiday are approaching, the demand for goods preparation and replenishment in the gasoline terminal market is still there, and the demand for intermediate materials such as MTBE is still there. It is expected that the domestic MTBE price will fall slightly in the short term.

Thiourea

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, in 2020, the price of hydrogen peroxide will drop first and then rise, showing a bottoming rebound, and the whole year’s price will rise by 28.61%. After a slight rise in January, the price of hydrogen peroxide has been falling for four months. The price of hydrogen peroxide once dropped to 750 yuan, a new low in three years, with the biggest drop of more than 30%. Since June, the hydrogen peroxide market has made full efforts to get rid of the downturn and usher in the rising trend. The price of hydrogen peroxide has increased by more than 80% in seven months.

 

According to the annual comparison chart of hydrogen peroxide from 2018 to 2020, the hydrogen peroxide Market in 2018 kept falling, from 1900 yuan to 1400 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 55%. In 2019, the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply, and the overall oscillation rose, from 860 yuan to 1106 yuan / ton, and the price rose by 28.68%. By 2020, the overall trend of hydrogen peroxide market will be better than that in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, the hydrogen peroxide market will fluctuate and rise as a whole, from 1100 yuan / ton to 1400 yuan / ton, up more than 300 yuan.

 

According to the monthly K-bar chart from January to November in 2020, the month of hydrogen peroxide decline is more, and the month of hydrogen peroxide rise is only four months. Although the number of rising months is small, the increase is large. In June and October, hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 30%, and in September, hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 15%. Therefore, in 2020, as a whole, the price of hydrogen peroxide still shows an upward trend, with an overall increase of nearly 30%.

 

In 2020, the main factors affecting the price of hydrogen peroxide are: the increase of logistics cost, the centralized maintenance of manufacturers, the shortage of supply, the help of e-commerce, and the pull of terminal paper and caprolactam stock market. Bad factors: export volume orders decline, terminal papermaking, caprolactam industry recession.

 

The market analysis from January to December 2020 is as follows:

 

In January and the beginning of this month, the price of caprolactam in hydrogen peroxide terminal continued to rise. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers shut down and the market was in short supply. The price exceeded 1300 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 5%. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the manufacturers cleared their stocks and sharply reduced the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide by more than 6%. At the end of the month, after clearing the inventory, the price of hydrogen peroxide returned to a high level. January as a whole rose 0.9%.

 

In February, after the Spring Festival, logistics and transportation were blocked, and it was difficult for terminal caprolactam manufacturers and paper industry to purchase hydrogen peroxide. The turnover of hydrogen peroxide market was limited. Some manufacturers sharply reduced the price of hydrogen peroxide, and the price dropped from 1100 yuan / ton to 910 yuan / ton. February overall down 18.21%

 

In March, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide enterprises resumed one after another, and the market dropped sharply. In the middle of the month, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan / ton due to the increase of terminal procurement demand. After the market soared, due to the terminal market decline, demand fell, near the end of the month, hydrogen peroxide prices fell steadily. The overall decline in March was more than 1%.

 

In April, the operating rate of domestic hydrogen peroxide enterprises increased and the supply was loose, while the terminal papermaking and printing industries were in recession, manufacturers were cautious in purchasing, and the demand was low. In addition, the export order volume decreased, and the market oversupply, the hydrogen peroxide price continued to decline sharply, and the mainstream quotation fell to 760-800 yuan / ton. In April, hydrogen peroxide declined by 11.81%.

 

In May, the export volume of hydrogen peroxide downstream products decreased, the terminal demand was low, and the price continued to fall, down 5.86%. Starting from the 18th, hydrogen peroxide rose by 7.11% driven by caprolactam. At the end of the month, the terminal demand was still weak, and the rise of hydrogen peroxide ushered in a decline. In May, hydrogen peroxide declined by 2.51%.

 

In June, the purchase orders of terminal caprolactam manufacturers and thiourea dioxide customers increased, Chenming Paper and Cangzhou Xuyang purchased one after another, and the demand for terminal rigidity increased. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers concentrated parking maintenance, supply shortage, hydrogen peroxide market soared. In June, hydrogen peroxide rose by 32.19%.

 

In July, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide enterprises increased, the terminal caprolactam market was depressed, and the paper industry, after the completion of centralized stock. The price of hydrogen peroxide also opened a downward channel, and the price continued to fall, with the average market price falling below 950 yuan / ton. In July, hydrogen peroxide decreased by 8.97%.

 

In August, the stock market of terminal caprolactam manufacturers and paper industry ended, the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide gradually declined, and the purchase volume decreased, opening a sharp decline in the market. The lowest mainstream price fell to 900 yuan / ton. In August, hydrogen peroxide declined by 2.11%.

 

In September, the traditional consumption peak season of hydrogen peroxide is coming. With the increase of terminal demand, the hydrogen peroxide Market is getting warmer. The price has been rising. In the first week, the price has risen by more than 7%, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to soar. In September, hydrogen peroxide rose by 15.83%.

 

In October, after the national day, the terminal caprolactam rose sharply. Awesome market, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers welcome a wave of overhaul at the end of the month, tight supply, double eleven paper business electricity supplier stock market support hydrogen peroxide continues to skyrocket, Kim Gu, hydrogen peroxide ushered in silver ten. In October, hydrogen peroxide rose by 35.09%.

 

In November, in terms of terminal paper industry, the stock market of paper mills ended, the demand for purchasing hydrogen peroxide weakened, and the price continued to drop sharply. By 11.49%, hydrogen peroxide Market showed signs of recovery at the end of the month. In November, hydrogen peroxide declined by 9.66%.

 

In December, due to the large decline of hydrogen peroxide Market in the early stage, the price was at a low level, the manufacturers had a strong price support psychology, the terminal caprolactam market rose sharply, and the cost support, hydrogen peroxide returned to the rising trend. As of December 25, the price of hydrogen peroxide rose by 8.65%.

 

Future prospects

 

According to the hydrogen peroxide analysts of business news agency, although hydrogen peroxide continues to fall in the first half of 2020, it will continue to rise in the second half of 2020 with the support of more profits, and the price will return to 1400 yuan, which is obviously better than the sharp rise and fall in 2019.

In December 2020, hydrogen peroxide has shown a rising trend. With the approach of new year’s day and Spring Festival, some hydrogen peroxide enterprises will stop for maintenance and the supply is becoming tight. In the first quarter of 2021, hydrogen peroxide is still expected to continue to rise, and in the second quarter, it may continue to decline. In the third quarter and the fourth quarter, the traditional consumption of hydrogen peroxide is booming, and the rising trend is still expected. In 2021, hydrogen peroxide may return to 1600 yuan / ton.

Thiourea

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

 

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Recently, the market of acrylic acid has been running smoothly. According to the data of business club’s bulk list, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China as of December 23 was 9833.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Thursday (December 17), increased by 11.74% compared with November 23, and increased by 5.36% on a three-month cycle. Recently, the price of raw material propylene is high and the cost is under pressure. Under the stable offer of production enterprises, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, the market inquiry and transaction performance are general, and the cautious wait-and-see mood is strong.

 

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the acrylic acid prices of some enterprises in the near future (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation)

 

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 8200 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: December 23, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 8000 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: December 21, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9800 yuan / T refined acid with 99.7% content on December 21, 2020

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. 8000 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: December 17, 2020

Upstream propylene, on December 22, the market price of propylene in Shandong increased individually. According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, increasing by more than 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price was stable again. On the 4th, the price rose by about 450 yuan / T from the 3rd to 8th, up by 5.90%. On the 9th, the price was fully stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up for the increase, and some enterprises’ prices fell slightly. On the 11th, the price began to decline twice, and on the 14th, it had declined 200-250 yuan / T. on the 15th, the price was mainly stable, and on the 15th, the price was mainly stable Don’t go up, the price rose by 50 yuan / ton on the 21st, and it is mainly stable again today. The market transaction is between 7900 yuan / ton and 8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7950 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is not much, pressure is not big, shipping general.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Acrylic acid analysts from business news agency believe that the recent high price of raw material propylene has strong cost support, downstream enterprises just need to buy, and the market atmosphere is general. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

Thiourea

1、 Price trend

 

According to this week’s news agency, benzene prices fell. On December 13, the price of pure benzene was 4280-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4556 yuan / ton); on Sunday (December 20), the price of pure benzene was 4170-4600 yuan / ton (average price was 4486 yuan / ton), down 70 yuan / ton or 1.54% compared with last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Due to inventory pressure and the weakness of styrene, the price of pure benzene fell this week. However, the overall positive news of benzene and styrene in the lower end of the week weakened. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained stable at 4600 yuan / ton, which was higher than the local refining price. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port decreased by about 11000 tons compared with last week.

 

In terms of external market, the shortage of pure benzene in Europe and the United States has driven the price of pure benzene in Asia to continue to rise, with a wide gap between domestic and foreign prices, which has a good support for the domestic market. On Friday (December 18), South Korea imported 650.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 19.34 US dollars / ton, or 3.06% compared with December 11; and that of East China was 633.5 US dollars / ton, up 5.5 US dollars / ton, or 0.88% higher than December 11.

 

In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.

 

Downstream: styrene: domestic mainstream styrene prices fell first and then rose this week, but still fell 8.93% compared with last Friday. The downstream demand of styrene is weak, and the mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, with insufficient buying gas. On Friday (December 18), the price of sample enterprises was 6916.67 yuan / ton, which was 633.33 yuan / ton, or 8.39% lower than last Friday, and the price was 6.95% lower than that of the same period last year.

 

Aniline: aniline Market is relatively quiet this week, digest the increase of last week. At present, the supply and demand of aniline is stable, Huatai and Jinling are running with reduced load. In the later stage, the maintenance plan and operation load of the unit are concerned. On December 20, the price of aniline in Shandong was about 7700 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 7900-8000 yuan / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, China’s economic recovery is good, and the news of vaccine and US economic stimulus plan is favorable, supporting the market. It is expected that the oil price will be stronger next week. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the vaccine and the new progress of the US economic stimulus plan, as well as the impact of the gradual increase of OPEC + production.

 

Downstream: pay attention to the change of demand side for plant restart, and pay attention to the arrival of imported ships in the later stage. In December, new production capacity is expected to enter the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene may increase. The listed price of Sinopec is higher than that of local refining, and the market is waiting for its price guidance. Next week, near the end of the month, focus on the next month’s contract price negotiations. It is expected that benzene will recover slightly next week.

Thiourea