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Industry chain: in the upstream of ABS, the inventory level of styrene port is high after the beginning of the year, while the downstream is slow to resume work and the procurement is not strong temporarily. It was not until early March that styrene, which was out of the problem of slow resumption of work in the downstream after the festival, was affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil market and trading volume of bulk commodities, and its offer stopped falling and rebounding as crude oil and bulk commodities showed a trend of first restraining and then rising. In the middle of April, it was reported that some units of enterprises were overhauled, domestic inventory was also reduced, the atmosphere was warmer, and the cost side was limited. In the first half of the year, styrene was shaken and sorted out. At the beginning of the third quarter, the price of pure benzene in the upstream of styrene was subject to the fluctuation of the international crude oil price or maintained stable or slightly decreased, while the downstream gas buying was flat and just needed. In July, the number of imported styrene ships increased and gradually entered the domestic market. The port inventory has been expected to accumulate, and styrene manufacturers have no plans to reduce production. By the beginning of August, the international oil price and pure benzene had not improved, falling continuously. Styrene market prices were forced to follow. Until the end of August and the beginning of September, the international crude oil market continued to be positive, the overall oil price was up in shock, and the U.S. gold market rose, giving styrene cost support. The styrene market remained high after rebounding. The supply of styrene in the spot market has become tight, import goods have decreased significantly, and the offer price is stronger. The international oil market fluctuated violently. Electronic disk, US dollar styrene, etc. rose with the spot price. The styrene inventory in the main reservoir area of East China is abundant, and the domestic overhaul styrene factories are gradually resuming supply. The spot supply in the styrene market is relatively saturated, while the enthusiasm for taking goods in the downstream is reduced, and the high-end price is gradually falling, resulting in the domestic styrene price from rising to falling. In the near future, the market is still profitable in terms of goods holding and production. After rapid growth, the market has no support, and the market has fallen back. In the fourth quarter, styrene gradually entered the off-season, and the enterprise has multi-dimensional rigid demand procurement, with general demand performance. Recently, a large number of imported styrene arrived at the port due to the early channel blockade and the subsequent continuous arrival of imported goods. Recently, the styrene inventory in East China rose, bringing resistance to the rebound of the domestic styrene market. On the whole, it is expected that styrene price rebound this week will be limited, while in the short term, it is still bearish and the price will be consolidated;

In the first half of the year, acrylonitrile was in a tight supply and firm price, which gave ABS certain cost support. Near the end of the year, there was a decline in demand and gas buying, and the resistance of the downstream to high price production was weak. In terms of acrylonitrile related production, the spot supply was slightly tight at the beginning of the second half of the year, and the market was relatively strong. Under the tight supply, the merchants are reluctant to sell, but the demand is weak and the downstream is not enough. The weak demand offsets the tight supply, and the supply and demand in the field are basically balanced. As a result, it does not bring a wave of market for acrylonitrile. The same downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises stop. Acrylonitrile inventory has been reduced to a low level, so the impact on the spot price of acrylonitrile is limited, and the mentality of the industry is stable. In July, the price of acrylonitrile in China was stable and the market was flat. At the end of September, the acrylonitrile spot market was basically in a strong price operation. It will take time for the new production line to be put into production for export of spot goods. The tight performance of spot supply remains unchanged, and the intention of traders to hold up prices is obvious. Downstream industry mentality to maintain caution, including acrylic plant operating rate is not high, replenishment to maintain rigid demand. This market has been maintained until the fourth quarter, at present, the market of acrylonitrile related products in the spot market is warm.

Butadiene is weak at the beginning of the year, and has been under inventory pressure for half a year, preferring to digest inventory. Downstream just need replenishment, demand improvement is limited, market mentality is bearish. At the beginning of the second half of the year, the domestic market rose strongly. The reason is that it is difficult for imported goods to effectively supplement the domestic market due to the narrowing of the price difference between the internal and external market, and some of the goods are exported to Korea for arbitrage, which aggravates the shortage of domestic supply. Sinopec’s continuous price rise in the East China supply cycle has significantly boosted the spot market. The export volume of northeast manufacturers has shrunk, and the news of kutai’s load reduction and srbon’s plan to start maintenance has been released intensively, which has boosted the domestic butadiene spot market to a strong and high level. Although the downstream rubber market is weak, the supply of low-priced butadiene market is hard to find, and some of them just need passive follow-up. With the price rising, domestic businesses are relatively active in shipping, and Fushun Petrochemical’s restart of export led to high market pressure, and the high-end market price fell slightly. The profit of downstream factories is still under pressure, so it is difficult for butadiene market to get demand support in the short term. Under the expectation of supply increment, the resistance for the market to continue to rise is obvious. In August, the domestic butadiene market continued to climb, and the external market continued to be high. There was no obvious inventory pressure for domestic manufacturers, and the state-owned synthetic rubber equipment operated stably. In the downstream of the new production supply contract in East China, there is no spot flow into the trade link, and Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, so butadiene market performance is relatively strong. By the end of September, the high prices of butadiene related products in the spot market were mostly sold, and the market atmosphere began to show caution. The market was slightly weaker. However, the price increase of Panjin’s source of goods has driven the prices of other export manufacturers in the north to keep pace with the increase. In addition, the spot resources in East China have not been significantly supplemented yet. The price increase of middlemen has been driven up with the suppliers, and the increase is large. At the end of September, the trading atmosphere weakened, the downstream just needs to be dominated, the buyer and the seller return to prudent operation. In terms of supply, the Northeast factory continued to export goods, the market kept a wait-and-see attitude towards high price goods, and the overall offer was slightly adjusted. In the fourth quarter, the supply price of butadiene is stable, the market is weak, the information guidance is limited, the downstream inquiry continues to be cold, the offer changes little, mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the analysts of business club, the market of ABS in 2019 keeps a volatile trend, and the spot prices of various brands increase in different ways. However, from the results, the price at the end of the year will return to that at the beginning of the year. Cost side of the upstream three materials in a year up and down, there is some support for the cost side. Compared with other brother rubber and plastic industries, the supply and demand of ABS is not so worrying, but the downstream factories are still mainly just in need of replenishment throughout the year. At present, the end of the year is close to the suspension of logistics, and there are other news that dangerous chemicals are limited, and measures such as strict inspection of freight vehicles have resulted in tight logistics and rising costs. This year, the business operation is cautious, the mentality is relatively stable, and the delivery is based on the market.

On December 28, DMF prices in China ran smoothly

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1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of December 28, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4666.67 yuan / ton, and the price range of manufacturers was 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of DMF is slightly up, the supply of goods is tight, the price is high, the delivery is slow, the downstream just needs replenishment, the demand for new orders in the downstream is limited, some industries wait and see the market, and the overall support of the demand side is acceptable.

Industry chain: the upstream raw materials fell slightly, but the cost is still supported, the mentality of the industry is stable, the downstream power is low, the contract customers are mainly close to the end of the year, and the enthusiasm of raw materials procurement is general.

Industry: on December 27, the chemical industry index was 738, the same as yesterday, down 27.36% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.00% from 600, the lowest point on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

4、 Future forecast

DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, DMF is weak and stable, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the business DMF analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

PTA price maintains weak operation

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PTA price is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival holiday due to the aggravation of the contradiction between supply and demand of PTA, and the continuous accumulation of social inventory will also suppress the period price.

With the expansion of OPEC + production reduction scale and the conclusion of the phase economic and trade consultation agreement between China and the United States, the international oil price remained strong in December, PTA phase price also continued to rise, and the main contract rose to 4994 yuan / ton on December 17. After that, under the background of the expectation of the new unit put into operation and the expansion of polyester production reduction and shutdown scope, PTA period price dropped.

New capacity of device maintenance hedge

According to the original plan, in December, 1.2 million T / a unit of Sinopec Thailand and 2.5 million T / a unit of Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Guba) line 4 were put into production. However, at present, the production time of these two units has been delayed, and the market’s worry about the increase of supply has been weakened. In terms of unit maintenance, in late December, 1.2 million T / a unit of hailun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is planned to be overhauled, and 2.25 million T / a unit of yishanhua line 1 is planned to be overhauled from the end of December to the middle of January next year.

From the perspective of time and scale, the overhaul units of Hellenization and yishanhua are basically one-to-one corresponding to the units planned to be put into operation, and the supply increment brought by the new unit’s putting into operation will be offset by the unit overhaul. As of December 24, the daily operation rate of PTA plant in China is 93.47%, and PTA supply will remain stable in the short term.

Weak downstream demand

With the end of winter orders, the downstream polyester industry gradually entered the off-season of demand, and the deterioration of production profits forced polyester enterprises to reduce production and stop production from late November; in December, polyester enterprises continued to expand the scope of production reduction and stop.

As of December 20, the production capacity of domestic polyester plant is 4.7 million tons / year. Polyester varieties began to decline. As of the week of December 19, the weekly operation rate of domestic polyester chip is 87.52%, up 23.88% compared with the same period of 2018; the weekly operation rate of polyester staple fiber is 79.54%, down 0.86% compared with the same period of 2018; the weekly operation rate of polyester filament is 75%, down 4% compared with the same period of 2018.

At present, the production reduction and shutdown scope of polyester plant will continue to expand. According to the existing plan, there will be 6.66 million tons / year plant shutdown arrangements in the later stage, and the capacity of the plant that can be resumed before the Spring Festival holiday is 1.31 million tons / year. On the whole, after the removal of the re production unit, the total production capacity of polyester production before the Spring Festival holiday is 9.35 million tons / year, accounting for 16.06% of the total production capacity at the end of 2019. With the expansion of production reduction and shutdown scope, the start-up of various varieties of polyester will further decline, and the demand for raw material PTA will also weaken.

Social inventory is at a high level in recent two years

In December, with the decrease of PTA plant maintenance and the expansion of polyester plant shutdown, PTA ended the two-month trend of going to storage since the National Day holiday, and social inventory began to accumulate again. As of December 20, the social inventory of PTA in China was 1278000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons on a month on month basis, 580000 tons higher than that of the same period in 2018, and the inventory is still at a high level in recent two years.

In conclusion, despite the delay in the production of the units of Sinopec Zhongtai and Hengli Petrochemical line 4, and the increase in supply brought by the production of the new units will be offset to some extent by the overhaul of the units of Hellenization and yishanhua, there are still a large number of production reduction plans for the downstream polyester units before the Spring Festival holiday, and the start-up of various polyester varieties will be further reduced, and the demand for raw materials PTA will be weaker. Under the condition of stable supply and weak demand, PTA social inventory enters the accumulation mode again, and the later inventory will further increase the pressure.

In 2019, the price of natural rubber increased by about 12% in the whole year

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1、 Price quotation

According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), the price of natural rubber, which has fallen by three quarters compared with that of over 40000 tons, has been fluctuating for half a year in the low price range of 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton around 2000 yuan / ton. In 2019, the price of natural rubber rose three times as a whole: 12070 yuan / ton at the end of March 4 was the first high price, 12020 yuan / ton at the end of June 11 was the second high price, 12290 yuan / ton at the end of December 6 was the third and the highest price of the year so far; two downturns: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May was the first low price, 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August was the lowest price of the year 。 Throughout 2019, the main average price of natural rubber whole milk (Baodao) market in East China monitored by the business association was 10650 yuan / ton on January 1, 11940 yuan / ton on December 24, with an annual increase of 12.11%; among them, the highest price of this year was 12290 yuan / ton on December 6, the lowest price was 10260 yuan / ton on August 2, with an annual maximum amplitude of 19.79%.

In the first half of 2019, the rubber industry experienced the drought that has not been encountered for many years, the strict inspection of “mixed rubber” by the customs, as well as the export reduction and other rubber boosting measures of the three countries in Southeast Asia. The response to the industry was reflected in the first half of the rubber price shock, fall and shock. In the second half of the year, the rubber industry experienced the traditional consumption peak season of “nine gold and ten silver” and Southeast Asia Affected by the rainstorm and fungal disease, the output is limited, and the natural rubber market has improved to a certain extent; in November, China’s domestic region began to enter the cut-off period, and the fund gradually favored natural rubber at this time, which rose sharply at the beginning of the last ten days, and the natural rubber finally stopped falling and rose, the fund attention increased greatly, and the disk strength increased. Since then, the trend has fluctuated. After a short-term correction, it began to rise again in December, reaching the highest price level in 2019 on the 6th. However, on the 18th, due to the sharp increase of domestic inventory, the price has fallen sharply so far. It will end in December, and 2019 is about to become history. The natural rubber market continues to fluctuate.

2、 Factor analysis

Raw material supply: in recent years, the global natural rubber production capacity is at the peak, as shown in the figure above, mainly because the cutting area of rubber has been in a steady rise since 2003. ANRPC data shows that in 2003, the cutting area was about 6.19 million hectares, and in 2018, it has risen to 9.06 million hectares, an increase of 46.36%. The area of new rubber species reached its peak in 2012. According to the 7-year growth cycle of rubber, the corresponding cutting period is 2019. According to statistics, in 2019, except for Indonesia’s decline of – 2.2%, other countries basically maintained growth. Among them, Thailand grew by 4.9%, Malaysia by 7.2%, India, Vietnam and China by 15.7%, 3.2% and + 2% respectively. Cambodia increased by 26.1%. However, due to the long-term fluctuation of the price of natural rubber between 10000 and 12000 yuan / ton in recent years, the price has dropped to one fourth of the highest price in recent ten years. The low price of natural rubber has affected the planting and harvesting of natural rubber, and the growth rate of new cutting area has slowed down in recent years. Moreover, in 2019, the rubber producing areas at home and abroad suffered from drought, rainstorm, fungal disease and cutting cost. Among them, the severe drought that has not been encountered for many years may slow down the growth of rubber trees, delay and shorten the cutting period, reduce the production and regeneration speed of glue due to lack of water, and significantly reduce the production. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand suffered from fungal diseases before and after During the attack, the production was seriously affected: about 382000 hectares of rubber plantations in Indonesia, especially in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, the natural rubber production in Indonesia in 2019 is expected to decrease by 15% compared with 3.76 million tons in 2018. Thailand, the world’s largest natural rubber producer and exporter, accounts for 40% of the global rubber supply. Rubber plantations with an area of more than 330000 Lai are suffering from fungal disasters. It is believed that the local natural rubber production may decline by 50%.

The ANRPC report shows that in the first half of 2019, the total global natural rubber production decreased by 8.3% to 5.853 million tons year-on-year, including Thailand (- 15.7%), Indonesia (- 12.0%), China (- 17.1%), India (- 4.1%) and the Philippines (- 1.3%). From January to July, the global natural rubber (NR) output was 7.039 million tons, down 7.3% from 7.591 million tons in the same period of 2018. The industry generally estimates that the global natural rubber production will decrease by 5% year on year in 2019; ITRC believes that the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decrease by 800000 tons in 2019.

In terms of inventory: as shown in the figure above, in 2019, the domestic Tianjiao inventory was basically maintained at a high level of more than 400000 tons, until the centralized cancellation of Tianjiao old warehouse receipts in the previous period on November 25: according to the data released by Shanghai Futures Exchange in early November, there will be about 320000 tons of old warehouse receipts, accounting for about 76% of the warehouse receipts inventory in early November. On November 25, the old rubber warehouse receipt was officially cancelled. On that day, 295200 tons of Warehouse Receipt Inventory flowed into the spot market, and the warehouse receipt inventory also dropped to 1657400 tons, the second low level after the cancellation of warehouse receipt in the past five years, and the cancellation volume far exceeded the level of previous years. The pressure on warehouse receipt was released centrally, and Shanghai Rubber had a basis for rising. This is the best stock movement news for the market since 2019.

Import and export: as shown in the figure above, China’s customs data shows that from January to November 2019, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were the highest in January and November, and the lowest in February and June. In February, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday in China, manufacturers shut down and employees had a holiday, and the overall operating rate was low. In June, there was a notice on the strict inspection of “mixed rubber” issued by the Chinese Customs on April 30 (the General Administration of Customs issued a notice on April 28, requiring that the mixed rubber currently imported through customs declaration No. 40028000 should be inspected as a mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber. For the compound rubber with only synthetic rubber on its surface, it is required to declare and tax according to 4001. On the 30th, after the notice was spread in the industry, rubber futures rebounded strongly, with short positions sharply reduced, up 400 yuan / ton on the same day, a margin of more than 2%.) Impact, also affected by the export reduction agreement reached by the international tripartite rubber Committee (ITRC) in March (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia decided to jointly cut the export volume of 240000 tons of natural rubber to boost the rubber price, which was implemented on April 1, and Indonesia and Malaysia implemented as scheduled in accordance with the agreement; Thailand delayed the election in March, and implemented the measure from May 20 to September 19, with the planned validity of four months June is the month when the three countries implement the plan at the same time. According to the latest data, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in 1-11 2019 is 5 million 848 thousand tons, which is 7.8% lower than the same period in 2018.

Downstream demand: in recent years, China’s tire industry has been growing rapidly. Since 2006, its output has been ranked first in the world. The total production capacity of tires accounts for 35% of the global total production capacity, and the export volume accounts for about 50% of the total production. As shown in the figure above, China’s tire output in 2019 is in a continuous growth trend. However, the rapid development of the tire industry has also caused some worries about blind investment and overcapacity. The development of the automobile industry and the upgrading of market demand put forward higher requirements for the technical performance and scientific and technological content of tire products. Driven by new technologies and new models, China’s tire industry has entered a critical period of transformation and upgrading. In 2019, China’s downstream tire enterprises have experienced strict experience During the period of industry integration, rubber tire enterprises went bankrupt and were auctioned by dozens of companies. In the blue sky defense war, the national environmental protection control is very strict, as well as the start-up inspection of tire enterprises. The data shows that the prosperity of the automobile industry in 2019 is still low, but the sales volume of heavy truck in the second half of the year continued to grow, driving the rubber price higher. In November 2019, China’s heavy truck market sold about 94000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 3% month on month and 5.3% year on year, the fifth consecutive month since July 2019. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume of heavy truck market was 1.0744 million, up 1% year on year. The market expects that the overall sales volume of heavy truck market in 2019 is expected to exceed 1.15 million, thus setting a new record of annual sales volume of heavy truck industry in China. It is pointed out that the heavy truck industry has a high prospect, the sales volume continues to grow, and the prosperity remains high. The main driving factors are the continuous improvement of road transportation demand, the strict implementation of heavy truck related systems, the restriction of heavy truck operation, and the severe punishment of vehicles with excessive volume and load. Some provinces and cities provide cash subsidies for scrapping heavy trucks that only meet the emission standards of “national III” and below, and some provinces and cities prohibit them from doing so 5. Transportation of chemical products by vehicles below.

3、 Future forecast

According to the natural rubber analyst of business club, the natural rubber market in 2019 is in the domestic cut-off season. The annual output is expected to be tightened, driven by the downstream continuous growth of heavy truck sales, and the relatively low volume of old futures inventory cancellation, which should be a good factor for the long-term depressed natural rubber market. There is no possibility of a big drop in Tianjiao. The trend of short-term reverse deposit and high rebound is that the supply and demand structure changes in the long term. The rhythm of long-term and short-term needs to be accurate. In the aftermarket, when the traditional Chinese Spring Festival is coming, the shutdown of factories will lead to holiday effect. Before the festival, it is usually the period of goods preparation. At this stage, Tianjiao may rebound for a period of time. Before the festival, you can also pay attention to the situation of automobile consumption. After the Spring Festival, the downstream production enterprises will start the spring production season. At that time, the domestic production period will be the cut-off period, relying entirely on the inventory and the supply of Tianjiao in Southeast Asia, focusing on the supply of Tianjiao Southeast Asia weather and unexpected news on the market. As for the natural rubber market in 2020, based on the current situation of low price depression for many years, although the future rubber price hike is unpredictable, once there is news stimulus and policy impact, the sudden price hike can be expected.

Summary of PVC Figures in 2019

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1. PVC rose 6.27% in the whole year

The domestic PVC market trend in 2019 is quite volatile and changeable. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream at the beginning of the year was 6575 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on December 24 was 6987.5 yuan / ton, up 412.5 yuan compared with the quotation at the beginning of the year, up 6.27% in the year.

2. PVC fell 1.98% in the first quarter

In the first quarter of 2019, the domestic PVC market is in the low consolidation stage. According to the data monitored by the business association, on January 1, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 6575 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 6445 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 130 yuan or 1.98%. The market is intertwined by many factors, and the price of PVC mostly fluctuates in the range of 6300-6800.

3. PVC rose 4.16% in the second quarter

In the second quarter of 2019, the domestic PVC market rose and fell sharply, reaching a commanding high of 7142.5 yuan in mid May, and then began to fall. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on April 1 was 6432.5 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on June 30 was 6700 yuan / ton, with the quotation rising by 267.5 yuan, or 4.16%.

4. PVC rose 0.19% in the third quarter

In the third quarter of 2019, the domestic PVC market gradually changed from the off-season to the peak season, with fluctuating prices. According to the data monitored by the business association, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on July 1 was 6712.5 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on September 30 was 6725 yuan / ton, with the quotation rising by 12.5 yuan or 0.19%.

5. PVC rose 3.9% in the fourth quarter

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the domestic PVC market rose sharply in the off-season. According to the data monitored by the business association, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on October 1 was 6725 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on December 24 was 6987.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 262.5 yuan or 3.9%.

6. Up 6.65% in a single month

In April 2019, the market price of domestic PVC rose from 6432.5 yuan / ton on April 1 to 6860 yuan / ton on April 30, up 427.5 yuan / ton, the largest monthly increase in 2019, up 6.65%.

7. 3.61% drop in a single month

In January 2019, the price of domestic PVC market dropped from 6575 yuan / ton on January 1 to 6337.5 yuan / ton on January 31, the largest monthly decline, with 237.5 yuan or 3.61% down.

8. In 2019, the maximum price difference of domestic PVC is 842.5 yuan / ton

In 2019, the lowest price of domestic PVC price appeared from the end of February to the beginning of March, with the lowest price of 6300 yuan. In mid May, it reached a commanding high of 7142.5 yuan. Compared with the lowest price, the highest price difference of domestic PVC price this year is 842.5 yuan / ton.