1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the prices of domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose and fell mutually this week. In the first half of the week, the prices continued to decline. On Thursday and Friday, some enterprises showed a slight upward trend, but the overall trend still fell. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises is the weekly high price, RMB 6181 / T; at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises is the weekly low price, RMB 6067 / T, with a weekly decrease of 1.85%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

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Products: since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On November 11, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. Today, the price has fluctuated. At present, the market turnover is about 5750-6200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. There are many units in the upstream and downstream industries that have been shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate is still low; however, affected by the epidemic situation, some refineries ship at a low price under the pressure of inventory, and the market transaction is rare, the market is cold, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of propylene will fluctuate in situ in recent days.

 

Industry chain: in the upstream, during the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market continued to decline substantially, and recently recovered slightly.

 

This week, PP market fell sharply, with a weekly decline of 4.81%, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

 

Acrylic acid market held steady this week, but fell 11.30% during the Spring Festival. It is expected that acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, with some negative impact on propylene.

 

This week’s decline in propylene oxide Market after a slight correction, weekly decline of 5.11%, weekly amplitude of 5.47%, is expected to have a suppressive effect on propylene.

 

Epichlorohydrin prices fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 2.41%. In the future, it may be narrow range finishing operation, with limited negative impact on propylene.

 

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This week, the domestic price of n-butanol fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 4.52%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

 

The octanol market held steady this week, but fell 3.86% during the Spring Festival, which had some negative impact on propylene.

 

The price of phenol Market in Shandong Province remained stable this week. During the Spring Festival, the price dropped only 0.49%, which had little impact on propylene.

 

The prices of acetone market in Shandong Province were all stable this week, and only declined by 0.44% during the Spring Festival, which had little impact on propylene.

 

Isopropanol market price slightly fluctuated this week, but back to its original position, the weekly rise and fall was 0. After the Spring Festival, the price rose 4.24%, which was good for propylene market price.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, in general, the propylene market has declined in recent days, and the change range of the crude oil market is limited, with a slight correction. However, the downstream operating rate is relatively low, and the plant shutdown situation is still the same, so it is expected that the propylene market will be relatively cold in recent days, and the price will mainly fluctuate.

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1、 Melamine price trend:

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market price of melamine was temporarily stable as of February 12, which was the same as that of yesterday. The mainstream domestic melamine price on February 12 was around 5200-5400 yuan / ton. In a half year cycle, it fell 4.30% year on year.

 

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2、 Market analysis:

 

Product: the domestic melamine market price was temporarily stable on December 12. Due to the delay in the downstream resumption of work and the limited impact of different degrees of logistics and transportation, some melamine enterprises do not offer prices temporarily. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

 

On February 11, the melamine commodity index was 63.80, the same as that on February 10, down 36.20% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-18), and up 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on February 11, 2020, among which titanium dioxide (2.18%), monoammonium phosphate (0.53%) and propane (0.34%) are the top three commodities. There are 14 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were dichloromethane (- 5.00%), glycol (- 4.59%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.28%). The 11 day average rose or fell by – 0.29%.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to melamine analysts of the business association, the downstream resumption of work is delayed, the logistics is limited, the demand side is weak, and the inventory of melamine enterprises is under pressure. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be dominated by weak consolidation.

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1、 Price trend:

 

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, after the Spring Festival, the price of the ortho benzene Sinopec contract fell sharply, while the market of ortho xylene fell. As of February 10, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 5800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.94% compared with that of 6300.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene before the Spring Festival. Compared with the same period last year, the price dropped by 14.71%.

 

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2、 Market analysis:

 

External offer

 

Product name region price rise and fall this week (compared with last week) price type unit

O-xylene South Korea 770-50 FOB USD / ton

O-xylene Taiwan 750-70 CIF USD / ton

O-xylene Southeast Asia 760-55 CIF USD / ton

O-xylene India 760-55 CIF USD / ton

O-xylene China 750-70 CIF USD / ton

O-xylene 876 1 FOB Rotterdam USD / ton

O-xylene 39.75-0.75 FOB US cents / lb

As can be seen from the table, the price of o-benzol in the external market fell after the Spring Festival. This week, the price of benzene in China was 750 US dollars / ton, down 70 US dollars / ton compared with that in last week; the price of benzene in South Korea and Southeast Asia was 50 US dollars / ton and 55 US dollars / ton respectively. The external price of o-benzene fell, the price of imported o-benzene fell, the market of port o-benzene fell, and the port inventory rose but was still at a low level. The overall external price drop was negative for the future o-benzene.

 

Factor analysis of industrial chain

 

 

From the trend of crude oil price, it can be seen that since the Spring Festival, crude oil prices have plummeted, dragging down downstream products, the cost of downstream products has fallen, the cost of raw materials for o-benzene has dropped, and the downward pressure has increased due to the weakening of the growth momentum of o-benzene.

 

 

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From the perspective of downstream customers, after the Spring Festival, due to the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises is low, most enterprises are out of work, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls, the downstream demand is poor, the market of ortho benzene is bad, and there is certain downward pressure on ortho benzene. In the future, the pressure of ortho benzene market decline increased.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of o-xylene of business association, after the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic, the crude oil price plummeted, and the cost of o-benzene raw materials fell; the downstream enterprises started at a low level, and the demand for o-benzene fell. O-benzene is mainly produced by Sinopec and PetroChina, and its normal operation rate is about 70%. However, due to the limited logistics, many traders have not entered the market, or can not normally leave the warehouse, and the market transaction is limited. In the future, it is difficult to determine the start date of the recovery of downstream phthalic anhydride enterprises. The demand for phthalic acid is declining, the price of the external market is falling, which is bad for the domestic phthalic acid market. The poor logistics and transportation lead to the overstock of phthalic acid inventory. The delivery pressure of phthalic acid in the future is large, and it is expected that the phthalic acid Market in the future will be weak.

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1、 Price data:

 

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic bromine market showed a weak and stable performance this week. The average price of bromine at the beginning of the week was about 30388 yuan / ton, and the average price of bromine at the end of the week was about 30277 yuan / ton, down 0.37% in the week, down 13.62% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Cause analysis

 

Products: at present, the domestic bromine production enterprises Park until the middle of February, the industry’s inventory is exhausted, and the spot supply is tight. However, due to the weak downstream demand and the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic, the transportation is limited, so the industry’s trading is light. At present, the mainstream enterprises offer 29500-30050 yuan / ton left and right.

 

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Industry chain: the upstream market of bromine in China is weak and stable, the market is not sufficient to start, the transportation is limited, and the downstream demand is flat. At present, sulfur is about 470 yuan / ton, sulfuric acid is about 313 yuan / ton, caustic soda is about 580 yuan / ton, and soda ash is about 1550 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the market performance of flame retardants is relatively low, the demand side support is insufficient, the pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are on the low side, and the overall impact on bromine price is negative.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the bromine industry analysts of the business association, after winter, the domestic bromine market has entered into a period of shutdown. The trade and investment in the industry is flat and the market is basically closed. Most enterprises recover in mid February. It is expected that the industry will maintain a stable operation in the short term. With the arrival of the national two sessions, the industry will still maintain a low opening rate. After the two sessions, with the weather getting warmer, the industry will gradually resume work and the price will fluctuate greatly.

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According to statistics, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in China this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the price is 10240 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, down 18.35% year on year.

 

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Product: the price trend of hydrofluoric acid this week is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers are generally on the way. The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level. The demand for domestic hydrofluoric acid market is limited. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. However, in the near future, the price of fluorite remains high, and the domestic price trend is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the southern region had a stable price trend The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is stable. In the near future, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is general, and the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is general. Some manufacturers report that the recent rise pressure is large. By the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian Province was about 10000-10500 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province, Jiangxi Province, Inner Mongolia and Jiangxi Province, respectively. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid was stable.

 

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of fluorite is 2894.44 yuan / ton. The supply of fluorite in China is normal, but the price of fluorite has little change. The upstream cost price has a certain cost support impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. With the decrease of gas temperature, the supply of fluorite in the north will gradually decline. At that time, the price of fluorite will remain high, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be stable The market has certain cost support. In the near future, the trading trend of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is stable, mainly because the quota of enterprises at the end of the year is limited, the supply is tight, and the market is out of stock, most manufacturers do not accept new orders basically, and the orders before the main supply, the price is high and stable. The transaction price of bulk water market of traders is chaotic, and the supply of goods in their hands is tight. The terminal’s demand for refrigerant R22 has not been improved, and the main price of domestic large enterprises is 15500-18500 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains high, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is slightly tight, and the price trend remains high. The downstream is still on-demand procurement, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

 

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Industry: this week, the upstream raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is normal, coupled with the general trading market of the downstream refrigerant industry, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is stable.

 

In recent years, the operating rate of domestic refrigerants has not changed much. The market demand for hydrofluoric acid is purchased on demand, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal in the field. However, the market supply of raw materials is normal in the near future, and the price of fluorite is supported to some extent. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be stable next week.

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