1、 Price trend:
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market in 2019 was in shock operation, and the amplitude of spot price in the domestic market was moderate. As of December 27, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13500.00 yuan / ton, down 1.22% from the beginning of the month.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors:
Industry chain: in the upstream of ABS, the inventory level of styrene port is high after the beginning of the year, while the downstream is slow to resume work and the procurement is not strong temporarily. It was not until early March that styrene, which was out of the problem of slow resumption of work in the downstream after the festival, was affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil market and trading volume of bulk commodities, and its offer stopped falling and rebounding as crude oil and bulk commodities showed a trend of first restraining and then rising. In the middle of April, it was reported that some units of enterprises were overhauled, domestic inventory was also reduced, the atmosphere was warmer, and the cost side was limited. In the first half of the year, styrene was shaken and sorted out. At the beginning of the third quarter, the price of pure benzene in the upstream of styrene was subject to the fluctuation of the international crude oil price or maintained stable or slightly decreased, while the downstream gas buying was flat and just needed. In July, the number of imported styrene ships increased and gradually entered the domestic market. The port inventory has been expected to accumulate, and styrene manufacturers have no plans to reduce production. By the beginning of August, the international oil price and pure benzene had not improved, falling continuously. Styrene market prices were forced to follow. Until the end of August and the beginning of September, the international crude oil market continued to be positive, the overall oil price was up in shock, and the U.S. gold market rose, giving styrene cost support. The styrene market remained high after rebounding. The supply of styrene in the spot market has become tight, import goods have decreased significantly, and the offer price is stronger. The international oil market fluctuated violently. Electronic disk, US dollar styrene, etc. rose with the spot price. The styrene inventory in the main reservoir area of East China is abundant, and the domestic overhaul styrene factories are gradually resuming supply. The spot supply in the styrene market is relatively saturated, while the enthusiasm for taking goods in the downstream is reduced, and the high-end price is gradually falling, resulting in the domestic styrene price from rising to falling. In the near future, the market is still profitable in terms of goods holding and production. After rapid growth, the market has no support, and the market has fallen back. In the fourth quarter, styrene gradually entered the off-season, and the enterprise has multi-dimensional rigid demand procurement, with general demand performance. Recently, a large number of imported styrene arrived at the port due to the early channel blockade and the subsequent continuous arrival of imported goods. Recently, the styrene inventory in East China rose, bringing resistance to the rebound of the domestic styrene market. On the whole, it is expected that styrene price rebound this week will be limited, while in the short term, it is still bearish and the price will be consolidated;
In the first half of the year, acrylonitrile was in a tight supply and firm price, which gave ABS certain cost support. Near the end of the year, there was a decline in demand and gas buying, and the resistance of the downstream to high price production was weak. In terms of acrylonitrile related production, the spot supply was slightly tight at the beginning of the second half of the year, and the market was relatively strong. Under the tight supply, the merchants are reluctant to sell, but the demand is weak and the downstream is not enough. The weak demand offsets the tight supply, and the supply and demand in the field are basically balanced. As a result, it does not bring a wave of market for acrylonitrile. The same downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises stop. Acrylonitrile inventory has been reduced to a low level, so the impact on the spot price of acrylonitrile is limited, and the mentality of the industry is stable. In July, the price of acrylonitrile in China was stable and the market was flat. At the end of September, the acrylonitrile spot market was basically in a strong price operation. It will take time for the new production line to be put into production for export of spot goods. The tight performance of spot supply remains unchanged, and the intention of traders to hold up prices is obvious. Downstream industry mentality to maintain caution, including acrylic plant operating rate is not high, replenishment to maintain rigid demand. This market has been maintained until the fourth quarter, at present, the market of acrylonitrile related products in the spot market is warm.
Butadiene is weak at the beginning of the year, and has been under inventory pressure for half a year, preferring to digest inventory. Downstream just need replenishment, demand improvement is limited, market mentality is bearish. At the beginning of the second half of the year, the domestic market rose strongly. The reason is that it is difficult for imported goods to effectively supplement the domestic market due to the narrowing of the price difference between the internal and external market, and some of the goods are exported to Korea for arbitrage, which aggravates the shortage of domestic supply. Sinopec’s continuous price rise in the East China supply cycle has significantly boosted the spot market. The export volume of northeast manufacturers has shrunk, and the news of kutai’s load reduction and srbon’s plan to start maintenance has been released intensively, which has boosted the domestic butadiene spot market to a strong and high level. Although the downstream rubber market is weak, the supply of low-priced butadiene market is hard to find, and some of them just need passive follow-up. With the price rising, domestic businesses are relatively active in shipping, and Fushun Petrochemical’s restart of export led to high market pressure, and the high-end market price fell slightly. The profit of downstream factories is still under pressure, so it is difficult for butadiene market to get demand support in the short term. Under the expectation of supply increment, the resistance for the market to continue to rise is obvious. In August, the domestic butadiene market continued to climb, and the external market continued to be high. There was no obvious inventory pressure for domestic manufacturers, and the state-owned synthetic rubber equipment operated stably. In the downstream of the new production supply contract in East China, there is no spot flow into the trade link, and Sinopec’s internal supply is tight, so butadiene market performance is relatively strong. By the end of September, the high prices of butadiene related products in the spot market were mostly sold, and the market atmosphere began to show caution. The market was slightly weaker. However, the price increase of Panjin’s source of goods has driven the prices of other export manufacturers in the north to keep pace with the increase. In addition, the spot resources in East China have not been significantly supplemented yet. The price increase of middlemen has been driven up with the suppliers, and the increase is large. At the end of September, the trading atmosphere weakened, the downstream just needs to be dominated, the buyer and the seller return to prudent operation. In terms of supply, the Northeast factory continued to export goods, the market kept a wait-and-see attitude towards high price goods, and the overall offer was slightly adjusted. In the fourth quarter, the supply price of butadiene is stable, the market is weak, the information guidance is limited, the downstream inquiry continues to be cold, the offer changes little, mainly wait-and-see.
3、 Future forecast:
According to the analysts of business club, the market of ABS in 2019 keeps a volatile trend, and the spot prices of various brands increase in different ways. However, from the results, the price at the end of the year will return to that at the beginning of the year. Cost side of the upstream three materials in a year up and down, there is some support for the cost side. Compared with other brother rubber and plastic industries, the supply and demand of ABS is not so worrying, but the downstream factories are still mainly just in need of replenishment throughout the year. At present, the end of the year is close to the suspension of logistics, and there are other news that dangerous chemicals are limited, and measures such as strict inspection of freight vehicles have resulted in tight logistics and rising costs. This year, the business operation is cautious, the mentality is relatively stable, and the delivery is based on the market.
