Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (September 29): 8900 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of BR 9000 in China was 8900 yuan / ton on the 29th, 0.45% higher than the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene continued to rise, the cost side was pushed higher, and the ex factory price of petrochemicals was firm. According to the business agency, the current butadiene price was 6288 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of Daqing cis-1-butadiene in Northeast China of PetroChina was 8800 yuan / ton. On the other hand, the production of downstream tires and automobiles increased compared with the previous period, and the demand side was supported. According to the business agency, in August 2020, the domestic output of rubber tire outer tire was 77.104 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; in the first ten days of September 2020, the automobile output of 11 key enterprises reached 729000, with a year-on-year increase of 17%.

Aftermarket forecast: raw material price is high, downstream tire demand increases. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will remain high in the future.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride market continued to rise this week, acetic anhydride prices rose slightly. As of September 27, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted was 5662.50 yuan / ton, up 1.57% from 5575.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 5.10% lower than that of the same period last year.

Acetic acid price trend

From the acetic acid price trend chart can be seen, this week acetic acid price temporarily stable, acetic anhydride cost stable, acetic anhydride market positive and negative.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that the methanol market fell this week, the methanol price fluctuated and fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the adverse effects of acetic anhydride market increased.

Market review and future forecast

Baijiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, believes that the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, remains stable this week, with the price of methanol falling and the cost of acetic anhydride falling, which is negative for the market of acetic anhydride. On the downstream side, the National Day is around the corner, the stock preparation is basically finished, and the downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing acetic anhydride. The inventory of acetic anhydride enterprises is low, and the operation of acetic anhydride enterprises is insufficient, and the pressure of acetic anhydride rising is great. Generally speaking, the supply of acetic anhydride enterprises is in short supply, and the market of acetic anhydride in the future market is temporarily stable.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province dropped slightly. The quoted price dropped from 1710.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1703.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.67 yuan / ton, or 0.39%, or 6.07% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, with the urea commodity index of 79.22 on September 25.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week fell slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1720 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1680 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1710 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent high consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has better cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain, the overall urea upstream products rose slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 2380.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2420.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.68%, 13.98% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 3100.00 yuan / ton, which is 4.42% lower than that of the same period last year Weak support. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, rising by 1.82% from 5500.00 at the beginning of the week to 5600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

3、 Future forecast

In late September, the urea market in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. As the National Day approaches, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, and manufacturers reduce prices to absorb orders. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

The price of ethylene oxide remained stable this month, with the national ex factory price ranging from 7200 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, of which the ex factory tax inclusive price of mainstream East China was 7200 yuan / ton.

Ethylene prices rose this month, some ethylene oxide plants were overhauled, and the supply side was tight. However, the weakness of the downstream unit market is hard to hide, and the manufacturers are under pressure to deliver goods. Some manufacturers reduce the price of goods to reduce the inventory pressure brought by the long holiday. The market of ethylene glycol is weakening, many units are put into operation and the downstream demand is gradually lower in the later stage. Under the double impact of supply and demand, the market center of gravity moves down slightly.

On the whole, although the cost support is strong, the demand is low, which makes it difficult to adjust the price of ethylene oxide before the festival. People in the industry are cautious and the market atmosphere is strong.

Temporary stability, need to pay close attention to the downstream market.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

On September 24, the market of lithium hydroxide stabilized temporarily. As of September 24, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with September 1, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of business club’s bulk list. Large lithium hydroxide manufacturers have stable shipment, and the demand for lithium hydroxide has increased in the third quarter, but the inventory pressure is still on. At present, the market is mainly running smoothly without obvious fluctuation.

Production data of lithium hydroxide: in August 2020, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was around 863 tons, up 3.6% month on month and 1.93% lower than the same period last year.

As for upstream lithium carbonate, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39500 yuan / ton as of September 23, up 1.54% compared with last Monday (September 14) and 1.25% lower than that at the beginning of the month; on September 23, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, up 0.68% compared with last Monday (September 14) and the beginning of the month It was down 1.56%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the upstream lithium carbonate has risen slightly in the near future, the cost side has certain support, and the downstream demand growth is fair, but the market inventory is still at a high level, and it is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term.