1、 Price quotation
According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), the price of natural rubber, which has fallen by three quarters compared with that of over 40000 tons, has been fluctuating for half a year in the low price range of 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton around 2000 yuan / ton. In 2019, the price of natural rubber rose three times as a whole: 12070 yuan / ton at the end of March 4 was the first high price, 12020 yuan / ton at the end of June 11 was the second high price, 12290 yuan / ton at the end of December 6 was the third and the highest price of the year so far; two downturns: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May was the first low price, 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August was the lowest price of the year 。 Throughout 2019, the main average price of natural rubber whole milk (Baodao) market in East China monitored by the business association was 10650 yuan / ton on January 1, 11940 yuan / ton on December 24, with an annual increase of 12.11%; among them, the highest price of this year was 12290 yuan / ton on December 6, the lowest price was 10260 yuan / ton on August 2, with an annual maximum amplitude of 19.79%.
In the first half of 2019, the rubber industry experienced the drought that has not been encountered for many years, the strict inspection of “mixed rubber” by the customs, as well as the export reduction and other rubber boosting measures of the three countries in Southeast Asia. The response to the industry was reflected in the first half of the rubber price shock, fall and shock. In the second half of the year, the rubber industry experienced the traditional consumption peak season of “nine gold and ten silver” and Southeast Asia Affected by the rainstorm and fungal disease, the output is limited, and the natural rubber market has improved to a certain extent; in November, China’s domestic region began to enter the cut-off period, and the fund gradually favored natural rubber at this time, which rose sharply at the beginning of the last ten days, and the natural rubber finally stopped falling and rose, the fund attention increased greatly, and the disk strength increased. Since then, the trend has fluctuated. After a short-term correction, it began to rise again in December, reaching the highest price level in 2019 on the 6th. However, on the 18th, due to the sharp increase of domestic inventory, the price has fallen sharply so far. It will end in December, and 2019 is about to become history. The natural rubber market continues to fluctuate.
2、 Factor analysis
Raw material supply: in recent years, the global natural rubber production capacity is at the peak, as shown in the figure above, mainly because the cutting area of rubber has been in a steady rise since 2003. ANRPC data shows that in 2003, the cutting area was about 6.19 million hectares, and in 2018, it has risen to 9.06 million hectares, an increase of 46.36%. The area of new rubber species reached its peak in 2012. According to the 7-year growth cycle of rubber, the corresponding cutting period is 2019. According to statistics, in 2019, except for Indonesia’s decline of – 2.2%, other countries basically maintained growth. Among them, Thailand grew by 4.9%, Malaysia by 7.2%, India, Vietnam and China by 15.7%, 3.2% and + 2% respectively. Cambodia increased by 26.1%. However, due to the long-term fluctuation of the price of natural rubber between 10000 and 12000 yuan / ton in recent years, the price has dropped to one fourth of the highest price in recent ten years. The low price of natural rubber has affected the planting and harvesting of natural rubber, and the growth rate of new cutting area has slowed down in recent years. Moreover, in 2019, the rubber producing areas at home and abroad suffered from drought, rainstorm, fungal disease and cutting cost. Among them, the severe drought that has not been encountered for many years may slow down the growth of rubber trees, delay and shorten the cutting period, reduce the production and regeneration speed of glue due to lack of water, and significantly reduce the production. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand suffered from fungal diseases before and after During the attack, the production was seriously affected: about 382000 hectares of rubber plantations in Indonesia, especially in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, the natural rubber production in Indonesia in 2019 is expected to decrease by 15% compared with 3.76 million tons in 2018. Thailand, the world’s largest natural rubber producer and exporter, accounts for 40% of the global rubber supply. Rubber plantations with an area of more than 330000 Lai are suffering from fungal disasters. It is believed that the local natural rubber production may decline by 50%.
The ANRPC report shows that in the first half of 2019, the total global natural rubber production decreased by 8.3% to 5.853 million tons year-on-year, including Thailand (- 15.7%), Indonesia (- 12.0%), China (- 17.1%), India (- 4.1%) and the Philippines (- 1.3%). From January to July, the global natural rubber (NR) output was 7.039 million tons, down 7.3% from 7.591 million tons in the same period of 2018. The industry generally estimates that the global natural rubber production will decrease by 5% year on year in 2019; ITRC believes that the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decrease by 800000 tons in 2019.
In terms of inventory: as shown in the figure above, in 2019, the domestic Tianjiao inventory was basically maintained at a high level of more than 400000 tons, until the centralized cancellation of Tianjiao old warehouse receipts in the previous period on November 25: according to the data released by Shanghai Futures Exchange in early November, there will be about 320000 tons of old warehouse receipts, accounting for about 76% of the warehouse receipts inventory in early November. On November 25, the old rubber warehouse receipt was officially cancelled. On that day, 295200 tons of Warehouse Receipt Inventory flowed into the spot market, and the warehouse receipt inventory also dropped to 1657400 tons, the second low level after the cancellation of warehouse receipt in the past five years, and the cancellation volume far exceeded the level of previous years. The pressure on warehouse receipt was released centrally, and Shanghai Rubber had a basis for rising. This is the best stock movement news for the market since 2019.
Import and export: as shown in the figure above, China’s customs data shows that from January to November 2019, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were the highest in January and November, and the lowest in February and June. In February, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday in China, manufacturers shut down and employees had a holiday, and the overall operating rate was low. In June, there was a notice on the strict inspection of “mixed rubber” issued by the Chinese Customs on April 30 (the General Administration of Customs issued a notice on April 28, requiring that the mixed rubber currently imported through customs declaration No. 40028000 should be inspected as a mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber. For the compound rubber with only synthetic rubber on its surface, it is required to declare and tax according to 4001. On the 30th, after the notice was spread in the industry, rubber futures rebounded strongly, with short positions sharply reduced, up 400 yuan / ton on the same day, a margin of more than 2%.) Impact, also affected by the export reduction agreement reached by the international tripartite rubber Committee (ITRC) in March (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia decided to jointly cut the export volume of 240000 tons of natural rubber to boost the rubber price, which was implemented on April 1, and Indonesia and Malaysia implemented as scheduled in accordance with the agreement; Thailand delayed the election in March, and implemented the measure from May 20 to September 19, with the planned validity of four months June is the month when the three countries implement the plan at the same time. According to the latest data, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in 1-11 2019 is 5 million 848 thousand tons, which is 7.8% lower than the same period in 2018.
Downstream demand: in recent years, China’s tire industry has been growing rapidly. Since 2006, its output has been ranked first in the world. The total production capacity of tires accounts for 35% of the global total production capacity, and the export volume accounts for about 50% of the total production. As shown in the figure above, China’s tire output in 2019 is in a continuous growth trend. However, the rapid development of the tire industry has also caused some worries about blind investment and overcapacity. The development of the automobile industry and the upgrading of market demand put forward higher requirements for the technical performance and scientific and technological content of tire products. Driven by new technologies and new models, China’s tire industry has entered a critical period of transformation and upgrading. In 2019, China’s downstream tire enterprises have experienced strict experience During the period of industry integration, rubber tire enterprises went bankrupt and were auctioned by dozens of companies. In the blue sky defense war, the national environmental protection control is very strict, as well as the start-up inspection of tire enterprises. The data shows that the prosperity of the automobile industry in 2019 is still low, but the sales volume of heavy truck in the second half of the year continued to grow, driving the rubber price higher. In November 2019, China’s heavy truck market sold about 94000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 3% month on month and 5.3% year on year, the fifth consecutive month since July 2019. From January to November, the cumulative sales volume of heavy truck market was 1.0744 million, up 1% year on year. The market expects that the overall sales volume of heavy truck market in 2019 is expected to exceed 1.15 million, thus setting a new record of annual sales volume of heavy truck industry in China. It is pointed out that the heavy truck industry has a high prospect, the sales volume continues to grow, and the prosperity remains high. The main driving factors are the continuous improvement of road transportation demand, the strict implementation of heavy truck related systems, the restriction of heavy truck operation, and the severe punishment of vehicles with excessive volume and load. Some provinces and cities provide cash subsidies for scrapping heavy trucks that only meet the emission standards of “national III” and below, and some provinces and cities prohibit them from doing so 5. Transportation of chemical products by vehicles below.
3、 Future forecast
According to the natural rubber analyst of business club, the natural rubber market in 2019 is in the domestic cut-off season. The annual output is expected to be tightened, driven by the downstream continuous growth of heavy truck sales, and the relatively low volume of old futures inventory cancellation, which should be a good factor for the long-term depressed natural rubber market. There is no possibility of a big drop in Tianjiao. The trend of short-term reverse deposit and high rebound is that the supply and demand structure changes in the long term. The rhythm of long-term and short-term needs to be accurate. In the aftermarket, when the traditional Chinese Spring Festival is coming, the shutdown of factories will lead to holiday effect. Before the festival, it is usually the period of goods preparation. At this stage, Tianjiao may rebound for a period of time. Before the festival, you can also pay attention to the situation of automobile consumption. After the Spring Festival, the downstream production enterprises will start the spring production season. At that time, the domestic production period will be the cut-off period, relying entirely on the inventory and the supply of Tianjiao in Southeast Asia, focusing on the supply of Tianjiao Southeast Asia weather and unexpected news on the market. As for the natural rubber market in 2020, based on the current situation of low price depression for many years, although the future rubber price hike is unpredictable, once there is news stimulus and policy impact, the sudden price hike can be expected.
