I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market turnover has gradually improved and the port inventory has remained low. This week, the domestic toluene market rebounded slightly by 0.44%.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, the market price of this week is stable, slightly lower, and the transaction is active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5650 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s price stability increased and port inventory remained low, about 20000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 0.67% at sight, Brent futures up 0.03%, WTI futures up 0.48% and Dubai futures down 0.69%.

On the downstream side, TDI, the domestic TDI market fell slightly this week, and the attitude of the industry tends to be cautious. The price of domestic goods delivered with bills is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods delivered with bills is 11300-11500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a weak shock later. In PX market, the domestic PX price trend is stable this week, and the external market trend is slightly fluctuating. The price is about 773-775 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 794-796 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will decline slightly in the short term.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

I. price trend:

In November 2019, the hydrogenated benzene market rose. The ex factory price in North China was 5000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 5250 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.96%.

On November 30, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 57.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.19% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 30.05% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: in the first half of November, affected by the poor delivery of pure benzene market, the overall trend of crude benzene industry chain declined, and the market price decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. With the lower downstream products such as styrene and aniline in the downstream of hydrogenated benzene, the resistance to high prices in the downstream increased, and the firm price of manufacturers was weak, and high-end transactions in the market were rare. In November, although the number of hydrogenated benzene shutdown and maintenance units increased, the downstream units gradually resumed operation, and the demand for hydrogenated benzene increased. With the support of favorable fundamentals, the price of hydrogenated benzene market began to rise. By the end of the month, except for the restart of Tangshan Zhongrun hydrogenated benzene unit, Shandong Jinneng, Hebei minhai and Puyang MaoYuan hydrogenated benzene units that were overhauled in the early stage have not been started yet. Shandong chenyao temporarily plans to start November It was restarted on November 23, and the planned maintenance of Xuyang hydrobenzene unit in Xingtai was about November 24. The overall operating rate of hydrobenzene was at a low level. The operation rate of downstream styrene, aniline and other devices is relatively high in the near future, which has certain support for the hydrobenzene market. However, the overall trend of downstream products is weak, the profit space of the industrial chain is significantly narrowed, and the upward support for hydrobenzene is limited. Although the price of hydrogenated benzene has increased, the cost pressure of enterprises has not been alleviated, the price difference with crude benzene has not been opened to a reasonable price, and most of the profits of enterprises are still below the cost line.

Industry chain: crude oil: crude oil in this month showed an overall upward trend of shock, WTI oil price increased by 7.25% compared with last month, Brent oil price increased by 6.04% compared with last month. Negative: trade risk, US crude oil inventory increase. Good: OPEC may continue to extend production reduction, economic data will be good, and crude oil inventory in the United States will be reduced. Pure benzene: this month, the range of pure benzene fluctuates in a narrow range. This month, the tight domestic spot supply of pure benzene led to the short supply, which led to a slight recovery in the price of pure benzene; the port inventory continued to be below 100000 tons, and the port to ship situation was also very limited, the market low-cost resources were hard to find, and the mentality of reluctant to sell increased.

3. Trend forecast:

The downstream continued weak operation, with limited profit space and price sensitivity. Recently, the start-up of hydrobenzene enterprises increased slightly. The price difference of upstream crude benzene market is still lower than the cost line, and it is expected that it will be more difficult for the future hydrobenzene market to rise.

I. price trend

Business agency: MTBE market price rises in November

According to the data of the business agency, the market price of MTBE rose in November. At the end of November, the price of MTBE was 5567 yuan / ton, up 5.70% from 5266 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Market analysis

Product: WTI crude oil market price rose 7.25% in November. Restricted by the weak gasoline demand, the domestic gasoline market price rose only 2.43% in November, driving the price of MTBE downstream market up.

Industry chain: since November, the market demand for refined oil has remained low, but in November, the price of domestic refined oil market has increased continuously by two price adjustments, driving the price of domestic refined oil market to rise slightly. In November, the market price of gasoline rose by 2.43%.

Market: at the beginning of the month, supported by the sharp rise of international oil price, the price of MTBE manufacturers in the North kept rising under the smooth shipment. Although the overall demand in the south market was relatively general, it rose tentatively driven by the tight supply and favorable news. In terms of supply, the start-up load of MTBE plant began to drop to a relatively low level in mid October, until the overall start-up load of MTBE plant rose to a relatively high level of 59% in mid November. In terms of demand, the international crude oil is in an upward trend of shock. The price of domestic refined oil has been adjusted for two consecutive rises. The gasoline and diesel prices have risen by 175 yuan and 170 yuan / ton respectively, which has certain support for the domestic oil market atmosphere.

III. future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency, the international crude oil price is relatively high, with weak growth, the gasoline market price lacks demand support, and the MTBE market price lacks momentum for growth. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will fall steadily in December.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and consolidated in November. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4362.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, down 0.29%. The current price was 5.18% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: in November, the domestic market price of potassium nitrate first fell and then rose. On November 4, Jiaocheng County Hesheng Chemical Co., Ltd. adjusted its price by 100 yuan / ton, 4400 yuan / ton. On November 19, Wentong potash Group Co., Ltd. increased its price by 5 yuan / ton, and 4300 yuan / ton after adjustment. The decline was mainly affected by the slight drop in nitric acid of upstream raw materials, which did not play a certain supporting role in the price of potassium nitrate. In addition, the overall downstream demand is general, the inventory is relatively sufficient, the rising power is insufficient, and the price is mainly stable. In November, the price change is not big, and the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium nitrate of business association, the recent market consolidation of nitric acid is the main trend, spot trading is tepid and tepid, and it is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will not be greatly improved in the short term, so the market consolidation may continue.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene on the outside market in November fell first, then rose and then fell, which can be said to be ups and downs. At the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was 826.50 US dollars / ton, down 1.58% compared with 839.75 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month, and the current price was down 14.44% compared with last year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: in November, the overall price of ethylene on the outside market fell first, then rose and then fell. The price of ethylene market in Asia rose first, and then it was high and volatile. As of the end of the month, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $818-824 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $807-815 per ton. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the end of the month, the European ethylene market price for FD northwest Europe closed at $878-889 / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at $785-796 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of the month, the price was US $501-513 / ton. As a whole, the market of ethylene fluctuated. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on November 26, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 58.41 US dollars / barrel, up 0.40 US dollars or 0.7% over the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 64.27 US dollars / barrel, up 0.62 US dollars or 1.0% over the previous trading day. Tass, citing three sources close to OPEC, said the group and key partners such as Russia are considering extending the production cut agreement for three to six months, which currently expires in March 2020. Affected by the news, oil prices rose slightly. However, the price of oil also fluctuated in the early stage, which had insufficient support for ethylene, and the external market of ethylene was temporarily at a low level. The lower styrene price has a slight upward trend, and the ethanol price continues to consolidate, which has a limited supporting effect on the ethylene price.

3. Future forecast:

According to ethylene analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, the recent crude oil price has maintained a narrow range of strong shocks, and there are some favorable factors in the market in the short term, including the geopolitical influence of stability maintenance in Iran and Iraq, the increase of OPEC production reduction expectation, the pessimistic sentiment of us inventory data, etc., which support the stronger oil price operation. Therefore, analysts of business data expect that ethylene prices will keep a narrow range of volatility in the future, which does not exclude the possibility of rising.