I. price trend

This week (11.4-11.8) the domestic price of 1 × antimony ingot is stable, and the domestic market price is 42000 yuan / ton.

On November 9, the antimony commodity index was 58.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.86% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 24.46% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

II. Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: on Wednesday, antimony oxide followed the trend of antimony ingot to maintain a stable trend, with limited transactions. As of Friday, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 37000 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 39250 yuan / ton.

Domestic market: this week, antimony ingot market trend is stable, price is stable, main manufacturers still maintain stable factory price, downstream has digested inventory based, transaction is limited, wait-and-see based, strong firm price sentiment of manufacturers, less speculative demand. As of Friday, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots was 41000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingots 41500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingots 42500 yuan / ton and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots 39000 yuan / ton.

Nonferrous Industry: the easing monetary policy caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the Sino US trade war negotiation ushered in a better atmosphere. The gold price fell. The central bank launched a one-year MLF operation of 400 billion yuan, with the bid winning rate of 3.25%, 5 basis points lower than the previous period, the RMB broke 7, and market confidence recovered.

III. future prospects

There are still a lot of data in Europe and the United States next week. The economic weakness makes loose monetary policy in various parts of the world one after another. After five consecutive positive days this week, the U.S. dollar may have a high continuous rebound blocked. The domestic RMB is also collated near 7. The macro monetary policy is conducive to the base metals continue to show a rebound upward trend, but the more leading role is that next week is the delivery cycle of 1911 contract, More metal varieties will change according to the strength of their own fundamentals, in line with the structural change of the monthly price difference. Strong items are alert to high-level pressure. Weak metals or low-level key integers will test the support effectiveness, and the strength differences will increase.

I. price trend

The domestic toluene market rebounded slightly 0.65% this week due to the rebound in international crude oil prices, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, this week’s market trading is light, and the volume continues to shrink. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5400-5450 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was average, and the port inventory decreased slightly, about 29000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, this week’s oil price shock correction, spot Brent up 3.63%, Brent futures up 3.39%, WTI futures up 1.56%, Dubai futures up 4.17%.

Downstream, TDI, the domestic TDI market atmosphere is still weak, it is expected that the late TDI market weak finishing. In PX market, the trend of domestic PX price this week is temporarily stable, while the price of external market fluctuates slightly. It is expected that the market price of PX in the short term will maintain about 6800 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Xylene analysts from business and Chemical Bureau said: next week, we will continue to focus on the progress of China US trade negotiations and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate steadily next week.

I. price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA6 in October was weak, and most brand quotations fell. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 13700.00 yuan / ton, down 5.95% from the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The average spot price of caprolactam in the domestic market at the upstream of PA66 in October decreased by nearly 6.61%. Domestic bearish sentiment increased due to the fall in the price of raw material pure benzene in October. China’s cyclohexanone market plunged sharply, and the intention to make up the position of terminal demand was low, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see, and the trading volume of chemical fiber single and solvent single in the market was small. Due to the pressure of inventory and delivery, the mainstream factories continue to reduce their quotations. Caprolactam cost end support is poor and downstream procurement is cautious. At present, the domestic market is oversupplied and the terminal demand is insufficient. Due to the increase of market bearish factors, caprolactam market followed the decline; the upstream caprolactam weakened, weakening the support for PA6. In October, the traditional “silver ten” peak season has limited repercussions, the downstream operation is generally cautious, and the overall trading is flat. On the spot side, due to the cost side, the manufacturers failed in trying to hold up the price, and the quotation declined in a weak way.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in October, the domestic PA6 market peak season is not strong, and the spot price is weak. The upstream caprolactam continued to decline, supporting the PA6 cost end poorly. Last month brought a period of peak season, the end of the current paragraph can not be sustained. The downstream replenishment operation is cautious and the demand turns to flat. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be sorted out in the near future.

I. price trend of epichlorohydrin:

Epichlorohydrin market fell, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. As of November 5, the average price of epichlorohydrin was 18300 yuan / ton, down 1.79% compared with November 4. In a three-month cycle, it rose 7.96% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell. The downstream operators have low enthusiasm for participation, and they always hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The market inquiry is just needed for replenishment, and the purchase price is limited. On the spot, the new orders of the shippers are held to let the profits for shipment. At present, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China is about 17900-19000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise on the 5th. The price of propylene began to decline from the end of October. On the first day, it still fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the weekend, the price began to rise again. On the fifth day, it rose by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7230-7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7300 yuan / ton. The downstream epoxy resin lost cost support due to the decline of raw materials, with weak adjustment and operation as the main reason. The actual order needs to be followed up.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 5, 2019, among which there is 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are R22 (7.76%), trichloromethane (1.42%) and propylene (0.92%). There are 15 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are ammonium sulfate (- 7.84%), R134a (- 4.23%) and cyclohexanone (- 3.39%).

3. Future forecast:

Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business agency believe that the rebound of upstream propylene price has little impact on epichlorohydrin, and the low gas consumption in the downstream restricts the increase of epichlorohydrin price. It is expected that in the short term, epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by weak finishing operation, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream mainstream manufacturers.

I. price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the recent methane chloride Market in Shandong continues to rise, including the current average price of dichloromethane in Shandong is 2900 yuan / ton, up 7.01% from November 1, and the current average price of trichloromethane is 2150 yuan / ton, up 13.16% from November 1.

II. Cause analysis

Product reason: affected by the negative impact of enterprise maintenance, the spot supply of methane chloride in Shandong market has been greatly tightened. Under the situation of just stable demand, the price of methane chloride continues to rise. At present, the industry has a good mentality and strong intention to hold up the price. In terms of enterprise maintenance, Shandong Dongyue 280000 tons / year plant maintenance to the middle of November, Shandong Jinling reduced the load, Luxi Chemical started 60% and executed more foreign trade orders. At present, the quotation of dichloromethane in Shandong is 2900 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 2120 yuan / ton; the quotation of dichloromethane in Jiangsu is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 3800 yuan / ton; the quotation of Liwen dichloromethane in Jiangxi is 3000 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 2850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, natural gas prices are surging and falling, the terminal market acceptance capacity is limited, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the pressure is downward. At present, it is about 3840 yuan / ton; due to the poor demand in the downstream and limited, the methanol market is weak, at present, it is about 2150 yuan / ton; affected by the inspection and repair, the supply in the industry is tight, and the price is firm. At present, the enterprise reports about 700-800 yuan / ton more. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market continues to be weak, and the terminal market demand is flat, which is expected to remain weak in the short term; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be stable, which is good for the price support of methane chloride.

Industry:

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%). There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%).

III. future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, Luxi Chemical has gradually completed the external orders, and now it has been delivered normally. Shandong Jinling plans to overhaul around the middle of November to the end of the month. The spot supply of methane chloride in Shandong is still tight, and the price of methane chloride is expected to be high and firm in the short term when the demand is just stable.