Price Trend

The domestic market climate of BDO has been narrowly warming up. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic market price of BDO was 9520 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and the weekend. The price rose by 2.59% annually compared with the same period last month, and the price fell by 14.07% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market is going up narrowly. Zhongyu statistics showed that about 51.7% of the acetylene-aldehyde process plant was started, while the Xinjiang Tianye BDO plant was stopped and repaired, and the restart time was uncertain. The BDO plant in Lanshan Tunhe, Xinjiang, and Dongyuan, Inner Mongolia will be restarted and run again. The supply of the BDO plant will increase or the supply will be eased. In the latter part, we will continue to pay attention to the plant dynamics and downstream demand. It is expected that the BDO market will be reorganized and operated next week.

Installation, this week, Kaixiang in Henan plans to start after National Day; Tianye in Xinjiang plans to start 30,000 tons per year normally, while the rest plans to start after National Day; Dongyuan 100,000 tons per year in Inner Mongolia overhauls on August 13, with the restart time pushed to September 20; Tunhe in Lanshan, Xinjiang, about 100,000 tons per year, stops and overhauls on September 10, with a plan of about 15 days. No planned changes in other devices were heard. This week, the overall opening rate of the market remained around 56.3%.

As for the market, as of Friday (10.12), the BDO market in eastern China has been reorganized and operated. The reference quotation for bulk water supply is 8700-9200 yuan/ton, the barreled part of the market is 9600-10000 yuan/ton, the supply is on the tight side, the manufacturers have a strong market intention, the low-end supply is reduced, the downstream part maintains a long contract, some small orders follow up, traders ship on the market, and the future market pays close attention to the news of plant installations. South China BDO market reorganization operation, bulk water quotation reference 8700-9200 yuan/ton, market barrel part of small orders 9600-10000 yuan/ton, some manufacturers inventory is low, spot tension, downstream purchasing more to maintain a long contract, traders offer temporarily stable, some small orders to discuss high-end, the market needs to pay attention to plant news.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, although calcium carbide showed a downward trend this week, the cost-side advantage of BDO still exists. Some production enterprises have abnormal start-up of BDO devices, low factory inventory, shortage of spot supply in the field, and few low-end sources have been heard of. Traders’offer is stable for the time being. They ship goods on the market along with them. The downstream demand has improved slightly. Most of the purchases are long-term. Some of the small orders are more active, and the negotiations are high-end.

Methanol: As for raw materials, with the gradual cooling of replenishment enthusiasm, the delivery rate of methanol market slows down, but the inventory of manufacturers is still low, and the game between supply and demand begins to highlight.

Downstream, PBT: 100,000 tons/year PBT plant in Kaixiang, Henan is still parked, barrel goods are not quoted; 60,000 tons/year PBT plant in Xingxing, Nantong is restarted, barrel goods are not quoted; 80,000 tons/year PBT plant in Yizheng Chemical Fiber is in normal operation, barrel goods are not quoted; 60,000 tons/year PBT plant in Meizhou Bay, Fujian is in operation and normal 12500 offer.

3. Future Market Forecast

BDO factory starts up slightly. At present, the inventory of the factory is low, the cost is firm, and the downstream demand is average. BDO analysts of the business agency predict that the BDO market will operate in a narrow range next week.

According to statistics, the market price of ammonium nitrate rose this week. By the end of the week, the domestic price of ammonium nitrate was 2300 yuan/ton, which was 8.66% higher than the price of 2116.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 12.20% higher than that of the previous year. The market price of ammonium nitrate was substantially higher supported by the price of raw material nitric acid.

On the one hand, the price of ammonium nitrate is rising. On the other hand, the price of ammonium nitrate in the market is supported by the high price of nitric acid in the upstream raw material. The price of ammonium nitrate in the market is rising. The shipment of ammonium nitrate producers has not changed much. The downstream is purchased on demand. Due to the influence of custody and control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China still has a lot of shutdowns. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, supported by good raw materials, the price of ammonium nitrate has risen sharply. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 2100-2300 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2500 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China has been slightly revised back. Jiangsu Hongze Silver Pearl Chemical quotation 2400 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe quotation 2300 yuan/ton; Shandong Heli Tai quotation 2300 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton higher than last week’s (17 days). Anhui Audley quoted 2300 yuan/; the price of nitric acid has fallen. After the National Day holiday, the factory restarted the parking and maintenance equipment, the supply of concentrated nitric acid increased, the demand of nitric acid market changed little, and the price of nitric acid market declined due to the increase of supply. However, the price of nitric acid market is still at a high level, which has a certain cost supporting role for the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is rising.

The upstream domestic liquid ammonia market has fallen back, the current local ammonia volume is normal, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship goods, but the manufacturers with large ammonia volume have lowered the ex-factory price. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is stable in the market of 2900-3100 yuan/ton liquid ammonia. The average price of liquid ammonia market is 3166.67 yuan/ton. Most of the liquid ammonia producers have general inventory pressure, while the quotation of the manufacturers in the northern region is maintained at 2800-32 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate has risen.

In recent years, the demand of downstream explosion industry has not improved. For ammonium nitrate market demand is limited, ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a high inventory, and the price of raw materials market has fallen. Analysts of ammonium nitrate business associations believe that the price of upstream raw materials nitrate Market has fallen in the near future, and the demand of downstream ammonium nitrate has not changed much. It is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fall slightly later.

On October 10, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 89.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.48% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21) and up 66.45% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, up to the present domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 9780 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%, enterprises reflect that the current on-site supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, the recent on-site hydrofluoric acid is not moving goods, due to the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices are small. The amplitude is low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9000-9500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 9000-10000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps a low level, and the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid drops slightly.

Upstream fluorite market prices remained low, up to 11 days fluorite prices were 2866.67 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices declined to a certain negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, hydrofluoric acid market prices were affected by lower raw material fluorite prices at a low level. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market prices remain low, from the point of view of market supply, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce start-up load, market supply capacity has declined, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainstream at the level of 12,000-14,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, the on-site transaction price is lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, but manufacturers reflect a serious loss, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may decline, but the decline is limited.

On October 10, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 19.43% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 10th, Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou petrochemical plant was running steadily in the field, Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%, Fuhaichuang aromatic hydrocarbon plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being, due to the introduction of new plant in China. The market supply of xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 9, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 4 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 784-786 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 804-806 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 9, the price of WTI crude oil futures market fell to 52.59 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.04 US dollars, Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.32 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.08 US dollars. In September, Saudi key crude oil production facilities were attacked, which once greatly pushed up the international oil price. At present, the attack has brought short-term fluctuations to the international oil price in general. Over the past few days, the international oil price has fallen back to the level before the attack. In the near future, oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the region. The decline in crude oil prices has a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products, but the price trend of paraxylene is stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market start-up rate maintained high, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, as of 9 domestic PTA start-up rate of about 93%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 90%, due to adequate PTA supply, trading atmosphere is general, mainly traders, sporadic polyester factories follow-up by crude oil prices. The price of downstream PTA market will remain low due to the shocks. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain 6,800 yuan/ton in the short term.

On October 8, the PX commodity index was 54.40, up 1.6 points from yesterday, down 46.88% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 19.43% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 9th, Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refining and Chemical Unit was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being, due to the introduction of new units in China. The market supply of xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On Oct. 8, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 780-782 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 800-802 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is stable.

On Oct. 8, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 52.63 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.06 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.24 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.02 U.S. dollars. In September, Saudi crude oil production facilities were attacked, which once significantly pushed up international oil prices. At present, the attack has brought short-term fluctuations to international oil prices in general. Over the past few days, the international oil price has fallen back to the level before the attack. In the near future, oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the region. The decline in crude oil prices has a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products, but the price trend of paraxylene is stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market start-up rate maintained high, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, as of 8 domestic PTA start-up rate of about 93%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 90%, due to adequate PTA supply, general trading atmosphere, mainly traders, sporadic polyester factories follow-up by crude oil prices. The price of downstream PTA market will remain low due to the shocks. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain 6,800 yuan/ton in the short term.