On September 16, WTI crude oil futures rose sharply to $62.90 per barrel, an increase of $8.05. Brent crude oil futures rose sharply to $69.02 per barrel, an increase of $8.8. In particular, Brent crude oil, which opened on September 16, rose rapidly by more than 10%, surging by nearly 19% in the session, its highest level in nearly four months. Why is the international crude oil market so dynamic? During the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in China, a news about the attack on the facilities of Saudi Arabia’s Amy Oil Company became the biggest news shaking the crude oil market, and also the biggest black swan flying out of the market at present.

On September 14, Beijing time, two Saudi Ami factories were attacked, causing a temporary disruption of Saudi production capacity of about 5.7 million barrels per day, which is about 5% of current global crude oil production. It is rare for so many crude oil production capacity to be interrupted in the short term. It is reported that the oil supply disruption in Saudi Arabia is the most serious in history, surpassing the oil supply disruption in Kuwait and Iraq in August 1990 and the loss of Iranian oil production during the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

In the latest news, Saudi officials are considering postponing the Saudi Arabian Amy IPO and seeking to assess the losses before changing the Saudi Amy IPO plan. Saudi Arabia’s Amy Oil Company has asked local and international contractors to assess the damage to two key oil facilities caused by the attack, which is expected to take at least a few weeks for partial recovery. Oil distribution and U.S. oil are rising again. As of September 16, WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed up 12.52%, the biggest one-day gain in more than 10 years. Brent crude oil futures closed up 12.79%, the biggest one-day gain in nearly 30 years.

How does the future market of crude oil operate?

Some analysts said the surge may be just the beginning, given that Saudi oil supply disruption could last for months. Sandy Fielden, research director at Morningstar, said Brent crude oil could rise to $80 a barrel tomorrow and WTI crude oil to $75 a barrel tomorrow, but that would depend on the latest progress on resumption of production announced by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Situation.

As far as further information is concerned, Yemen’s Hussein armed forces said on the 16th that the oil facilities attacked in Saudi Arabia were still the targets of the armed forces: Yehaia Saliah, spokesman for the Hussein armed forces, issued a statement on the same day saying that “they may be attacked again at any time”, which further exacerbated the worrying atmosphere of the market, in this regard. In the near future, the market is still multi-party.

Business analyst Xue Jinlei believes that, fundamentally, in the short term, the market is disturbed by news and emergency plans are being launched. Saudi officials say that Saudi Arabia and the United States will make up for this loss through oil inventories, which can restore 2 million barrels per day of crude oil production, and the market’s concerns about the supply gap have slowed down. In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy announced the release of 9.98 million barrels of strategic crude oil stocks. Russia’s Ministry of Energy said it had sufficient commercial crude oil reserves to fill the gap caused by Saudi Arabia. Two major oil producers have expressed their views, which further alleviated market concerns. Therefore, the recent oil boom may have cooled down, but there are still uncertainties about oil prices in the future before the full recovery of Saudi Arabia’s Amy plant and the relief of the crisis, and it is not excluded that oil prices will continue to rise due to geographic premiums.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’list, the domestic adipic acid market last week (9.9-13) was slightly lower than last week. Dealers’ quotations declined mainly. Market prices fell by 100 yuan/ton, the percentage of decline was 0.87%. By the end of the weekend, the quotation is generally between 8200 and 8450 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

Last week, adipic acid market slightly declined, the market has been continuing the weak market in August, the market in early September is still no improvement. Last week, some distributors downgraded their quotations by about 100-200 yuan/ton. The market in eastern and southern China has declined, the market atmosphere is slightly cool, distributors actively shipped mainly, market protection. Holding a weak oscillation pattern, the downstream market is now more wait-and-see mentality, trading is slightly deadlocked, and there is room for business to concede profits.

On the supply side, the market supply is slightly oversupply, and many distributors say that the inventory pressure is high, the plant start-up rate is high, the market inventory and manufacturer inventory have risen. Last week, distributors have been picking up goods one after another, so there are also relatively low-cost supply flooding the market, product inventory has a certain bargaining space, market price offer. The price difference between the actual transaction and the reserve price still exists. The quotations of distributors in North China, East China and South China have been adjusted to varying degrees. Most of the districts maintain a stable market.

In terms of demand, downstream demand is relatively weak. The traditional “Golden Nine” market has not arrived as scheduled this year. The downstream start-up rate is still slightly inadequate. The start-up rate is basically around 50%. Adipic acid in the upstream has not been effectively boosted. In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene market is still weak, and the cost level lacks favorable support. The market has gradually returned to flat, and the market has entered the de-inventory cycle. According to the monitoring of business associations, the reference price of East China market is about 8200-8450 yuan/ton, while that of South China is about 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of adipic acid in the chemical branch of the business association believe that the current market is weak, the market shows a certain contradiction between supply and demand. At present, adipic acid is in excess supply and weak demand. Therefore, the Business Association believes that adipic acid market may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the short term.

Price Trend

PS market quotation is generally stable, a small part of the upward. Traders pay more attention to the change of ex-factory price of petrochemical enterprises, and the poor demand downstream is still the main factor hindering the overall market climate to improve. Price: GPPS mainstream offer is 10,200-10,600 yuan/ton, HIPS mainstream offer is 10,700-12,000 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

PS market quotation: Zhanjiang Sino-US PS ex-factory price, 525 quoted for 10,000 yuan/ton. CITIC Guoan PS ex-factory price, 525 quoted for 10,100 yuan/ton. Market turnover and delivery preference, the trading atmosphere is active.

3. Future Market Forecast

PS market trend is strong. The downstream factories have general inquiries and are mainly cautious. It is expected that PS will operate steadily in general and may increase in a narrow range locally.

On September 11, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 11th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 2 US dollars/ton on September 10. The closing price is 770-772 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 789-791 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On September 10, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $57.40 per barrel, a decline of $0.45. Brent crude oil futures fell to $62.38 per barrel, a decline of $0.21. OPEC’s crude oil production rose slightly by 50,000 barrels per day in August to 29.93 million barrels, but still reached 1.2 million in OPEC, Russia and other EU countries. In the barrel/day yield reduction agreement, the decline of crude oil price has a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of xylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA prices rose slightly on the 11th. The average price in East China was raised near 5300-5400 yuan/ton. As of the 10th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 97% and the polyester industry start-up rate was about 90%. Due to the limited support of planned overhaul to the market rebound, the trading atmosphere declined. Traders dominate, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices maintain low volatility, and it is expected that PX market prices will maintain low volatility in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of September 10, the average price of ethanol in the domestic market was 5420 yuan/ton, which rose by 0.74% annually and fell by 1.89% year on year. Domestic ethanol market is mainly stable, and some areas are strong.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic alcohol market is stable and small. Some small factories in Northeast Heilongjiang are out of stock, Friendship factories are out of business, big factories intend to bid, but East China Ethyl Ester factory overhaul and price reduction in central China market, negative mentality of all parties, maintaining a stable wait-and-see mood at present, enterprises in Jilin area carry out more contracts and orders, enterprise inventory is not high; In the short term, South China is supported by a favorable supply side, and prices remain firm. In Guangdong, enterprises have few start-ups and good supply side prices are firm.

Industry chain: corn: corn price fluctuates narrowly. Weather effects have led to increased expectations of maize yield reduction, increased planting costs, reduced sales of near-storage auctions, support of pre-festival demand in peak season, and the introduction of pig breeding policy. The price trend of maize is mainly strong shocks. At present, the market of spring maize continues to increase, and the supply chain remains adequate in general. Pig production continued to maintain a low level, seriously affecting the support of maize demand. We anticipate that the overall price stability in the near future will be mainly weak, and there will still be no obvious basis for price rise and fall. After mid-September, the probability of price rise will be high.

Ethyl acetate: The domestic market of ethyl acetate has increased significantly. The ethyl acetate plant in Yankuang Mine, Shandong Province, stopped during the weekend, and the early delivery of goods to export and South China ship cargo, resulting in no inventory around the spot supply. Influenced by the rising price, the suppliers in East China and North China pushed up the offer. Delays in shipments in South China market and local suppliers mainly follow the upward trend led to a significant overall increase in the domestic ethyl acetate market. At present, the restart time of parking equipment in Yanzhou Mine is uncertain, and the market of ethyl acetate is still rising.

3. Future Market Forecast

Large factories in Northeast Jilin area have stable production, more execution of contract orders, low enterprise inventory, parking situation in small factories in Heilongjiang Province, holidays are approaching, and enterprises’shipment mentality under transportation constraints are positively expected to operate in the short-term market consolidation; security inspection in Henan area has no clear evacuation date, downstream demand is weak, forecast Short-term market disadvantaged consolidation; Eastern China is expected to be disadvantaged in the short-term market consolidation due to downstream chemical plant shutdown; Southern China enterprises are supported by good supply side, prices remain firm, and Northeast supply has the intention to clear tanks in the near future. Ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will show a trend of regionalization.