On September 9, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 9th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were operated steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On September 6, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 760-762 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 779-781 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The lower price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On September 6, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 56.52 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.22 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 61.54 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.59 U.S. dollars. According to the EIA Thursday morning, Asian crude oil futures prices rose in the morning trading period. Inventory data was released later Thursday in the United States. Previously, the prices of both international benchmark crude oil futures contracts increased by more than $2 per barrel, and the trend of crude oil prices rose, which had a positive impact on downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price rose slightly on the 9th day. The average price in East China is raised near 5300-5400 yuan/ton. As of the 6th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 97% and the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%. Due to the limited support of planned overhaul to the market rebound, the trading atmosphere has declined. Traders dominate, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices maintain low volatility, and it is expected that PX market prices will maintain low volatility in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of monoammonium phosphate remained stable this week. The average price of powder monoammonium is 2150 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week and 2150 yuan per ton at the end of the week, which is the same as that on September 1.

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of diammonium phosphate dropped slightly this week. The average price of 64% diammonium was 2476 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 2450 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.08%. Compared with September 1 (2476.67), it decreased by 1.08%.

II. Market Analysis

Ammonium monoammonium: This week, the domestic powder monoammonium market continued its weak trend, and the bargaining center declined. Anhui province 55% ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan – 2150 yuan / ton, smooth start. In Hubei, 55% of ammonium powder is quoted at about 2050 yuan/ton, while 60% of ammonium powder is quoted at 2150-2250 yuan/ton. Henan market maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2100 yuan / ton, and started smoothly. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong province is 2050 yuan-2150 yuan/ton, which is stable. Sichuan province 55% ammonium powder factory quoted about 2050 yuan/ton.

Diammonium: The domestic diammonium market continues to decline. The shipment situation is not good. At present, 64% of diammonium in Hubei province is offered 2350-2450 yuan per ton, 64% of diammonium in Shandong is offered 2300-2400 yuan per ton, and 64% of diammonium in Yunnan and Guizhou is offered 2400 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: The price of domestic sulphur market in the upstream has fallen sharply, the demand performance in the downstream is still weak, the enthusiasm of terminal purchasing in the market is weak, and the refineries in all regions continue to lower their prices in the absence of news support. Recently, the phosphate ore market has continued to operate steadily. The average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is near 416 yuan per ton, based on the quotations of enterprises in several mainstream areas. Domestic liquid ammonia market was weakly adjusted, and some enterprises were slightly lower. At present, the overall performance of liquid ammonia market is weak, mainly affected by the slump of urea market. The downstream compound fertilizer market continues to be weak, and most enterprises take a wait-and-see attitude.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35th week of 2019 (9.2-9.6), the price of phosphorus chemical industry rose and fell by two kinds of commodities, falling by one, and falling by two kinds of commodities. The main commodities rising were yellow phosphorus (11.51%) and phosphoric acid (3.95%); the main commodities falling were diammonium phosphate (-1.08%). This week’s average rise and fall was 2.88%. According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35th week of 2019 (9.2-9.6), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling in the list of fertilizer prices, 4 kinds of commodities falling, and 5 kinds of commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities falling were urea (-1.62%), diammonium phosphate (-1.08%) and ammonium sulfate (-1.06%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.44%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts at business associations say the market for ammonium phosphate is worrying this week. The price of raw material sulphur continues to decline, which is not well supported. Downstream demand is weak and follow-up is weak. Some 55 powder enterprises stopped production of monoammonium phosphate. The export of diammonium is not smooth, the domestic sales pressure is increasing, and the transaction is cautious. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the later period.

On September 5, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 5th day. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were operated steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is stable on September 4. The closing price is US$758-760/ton FOB Korea and US$777-779/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low fluctuation of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On September 4, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $56.26 per barrel, an increase of $2.32. Brent crude oil futures rose to $60.70 per barrel, an increase of $2.44. According to the latest data released by EIA last Friday, the daily output of oil in the United States fell to 12.82 million barrels in June, down 33,000 barrels from May. Although the decline is not significant, it is still falling, and the trend of crude oil price is rising, which has a positive impact on downstream petrochemical products and a temporary stable price trend for xylene. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price trend is temporarily stable on the 5th day. The average offer price in East China is raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. As of the 4th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 94.5% and the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%. Due to the limited support for the market rebound by the planned overhaul, the trading atmosphere has declined and the purchase price is based on trade. Business mainly, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, downstream PTA market prices maintain low volatility, PX market prices are expected to maintain low volatility in the short term.

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of mainstream refineries of domestic naphtha was 6077.50 yuan/ton as of August 31, up 0.83% from 6027.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and rebounded after the price of refined naphtha fell this month.

The naphtha commodity index on August 31 was 75.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.91% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 77.58% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Refining naphtha prices rebounded after falling this month. Typhoon Lichma in mid-August affected the shutdown of some refining units. Refining naphtha prices remained high this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydronaphtha is about 6000 yuan/ton. On August 30, the price gap between naphtha and Brent crude oil fell to a nearly two-and-a-half-month low of $10.75 per ton in the Asian light distillate oil market, which was hampered by oversupply concerns.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.58 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 56.71 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 3.19%; Brent crude oil was 65.17 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 61.08 dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of – 6.28%. In August, Sino-US trade relations fluctuated, global risky assets plunged, OPEC and other firm attitudes towards production reduction, as well as U.S. crude oil production and stock boost and other factors affected the trend of international crude oil prices. Downstream: Some Sinopec refineries are scheduled for September, and some suppliers are actively stocking up. According to the monitoring of business associations, affected by the rise of crude oil in the upstream, the decline of port stock and the improvement of market turnover, the domestic toluene market has been in a good general trend this month. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5800-5850 yuan/ton; the xylene market continues to rise, and the mainstream price in East China is about 6200-6250 yuan/ton. At present, the domestic stock of pure benzene is relatively small, and the Korean plant overhaul and European overhaul are not yet finished. Global supply is tight, which boosts the market. At present, the price of pure benzene is 5200-5300 yuan/ton. In the PX market, the domestic PX market price at the end of the month was 6 650 yuan/ton, the overall decline was 5.0%, and the PX external price maintained a downward trend.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from business associations believe that naphtha is supported by the rise in international oil prices. Some refineries of Sinopec are scheduled for September and some suppliers are actively stocking up. With the coming of National Day, traffic will be regulated, environmental protection and production restriction. It is expected that the price of naphtha will rise in September, with an average price range of 5900-6300 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic potassium nitrate rose in August. On August 1st, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4300 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4383.50 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In August, the domestic potassium nitrate Market has an active trading atmosphere, potassium nitrate manufacturers are more active, the overall stock of potassium nitrate is at a low level, the start-up rate of manufacturers is at a low level, there is no sales pressure, the actual turnover is still acceptable. Although the downstream purchasing is just in need, the stock of potassium nitrate is low, and the market of potassium nitrate is rising slightly. The main potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 4250-4500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of business association thinks: the market of potassium nitrate rose slightly in August, the actual spot delivery is still acceptable, the traditional peak season of “gold, nine silver and ten ten” is coming, which is good for the price of potassium nitrate to rise, the market may be warming up, mainly by the demand-side-led price trend.