On September 2, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 59.85, up 2.1 points from yesterday, down 50.18% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), up 23.61% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has risen, downstream factories are just in need of purchasing, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, but orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is higher. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 6000-6200 yuan/ton, while in naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 5600-5700 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6000-6100 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, the downstream start-up is not high, purchasing on demand is dominant, and the domestic phthalic anhydride market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 6300 yuan/ton, the import market of phthalic anhydride in port area has not changed much, the quotation is stable, the recent market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is general, the port stock is at a low level, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride outer plate is stable, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation, the actual single detailed discussion, the upstream price trend Market prices are rising. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP prices rose, DOP downstream demand shocked and declined, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market slightly lower, DOP market mainstream transaction price of about 7350 yuan/ton, downstream prices rose, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to remain strong in the later period.

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price declined sharply in August, with the price at the end of the month at 10 730 yuan/ton, 7.90% lower than that at the beginning of the month at 11650 yuan/ton, and 0.72% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Products: In August, the overall trend of hydrofluoric acid prices fell sharply, the market situation of manufacturers in the field has not improved significantly, the starting rate of downstream refrigerant industry remains at a low level, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high starting rate, the domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers are downgraded. At the end of the month, the main stream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower, the demand of refrigerant industry downstream is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian is around 9500-10500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong is between 1000-10500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi is between 1000-11000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia is between 9500-11000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Industry chain: In August, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid declined. By the end of the month, the price of fluorite was 3056.25 yuan/ton. Recently, the fluorite plant started to work normally. On the whole, the supply of fluorite is sufficient. However, the fluorite market is greatly affected by environmental protection, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, the price of fluorite in some factories has fallen back, and the market price of fluorite has fallen. Lattice trend slightly declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. At the end of the peak season, the downstream demand of terminals decreases but does not increase. The downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is low. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Industry: In August, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid industry started to operate normally, the hydrofluoric acid field product spot supply is sufficient, and the hydrofluoric acid market price trend is declining.

Recently, the hydrofluoric acid plant started to operate normally, the supply of goods in the field is normal, the price of raw material fluorite market is lower, which has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the end of the upstream refrigeration industry peak season, the demand for hydrofluoric acid only declines but does not increase. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business, believes that the price of the hydrofluoric acid Market in September may be small. The price of hydrofluoric acid will be around 10,000 yuan per ton.

On August 29, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 29th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Unit started 50% of the operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 28, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 3 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 765-767 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 784-786 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a certain impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On August 28, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $55.78 per barrel, an increase of $0.85. Brent crude oil futures rose to $60.49 per barrel, an increase of $0.98. The market’s worries about the prospect of oil demand continued to intensify. In a recent report issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the growth rate of global crude oil demand per day in 2019 is expected to be reduced from 1.5 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels. It is also expected that there will be a slight surplus in the oil market in 2020, and that the trend of crude oil prices will decline, which will have a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and the market price of paraxylene. The trend of the latter is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price trend was temporarily stable on the 29th. The average price in East China was raised near 5100-5200 yuan/ton. By the 26th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 94.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 90%. The PTA social inventory was estimated at about 1.4 million tons. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, it maintained in August as a whole. A small rhythm of de-warehousing. PTA factory inventory accounts for about 30%, polyester factory raw material inventory accounts for about 28%, downstream polyester factory has space to continue to replenish. Towards the traditional sales season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” for textiles, downstream terminal enterprises may usher in the procurement cycle and demand side will improve. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the short term.

On August 27, the fluorite commodity index was 107.46, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.71% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 118.37% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is slightly lower, the average domestic fluorite price is 3056.25 yuan/ton as of 28 days, the recent domestic fluorite plant start-up is normal, the mine and flotation plant start-up is normal, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, the recent downstream hydrofluoric acid price is lower, for the fluorite market on-demand procurement, fluorite on-site prices. Poor condition, fluorite market prices declined. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of the 28th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite fell back.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is declining. As of 28 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 730 yuan/ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. At the end of the peak season, the demand downstream of the terminal decreases but does not increase. The price affected by the fluorite market is slightly lower.

Generally speaking, the downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is sufficient. The demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, a business analyst, believes that the price of fluorite market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices fell first and then rose this week, while the price of plasticizers rose concussively. As of August 23, the price of DOP in East China was 7350.00 yuan/ton, up 83.33 yuan/ton from 7266.67 yuan/ton last weekend, up 1.15%, and down 22.50% from the same period last year. On August 26, DOP prices rose, offering 7383.33 yuan per ton, up 33.33 yuan per ton per day, DOP prices rose, and the market rose after that.

II. Market Analysis

This week, DOP’s external quotation has fallen sharply, which has a negative effect on the DOP market. At the beginning of the month, the price of DOP in China was 890 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last week’s price of 900 US dollars/ton, and that in Southeast Asia was 1150 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last week’s price of 1155 US dollars/ton. The operating rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises was maintained, the demand was normal, and the overall market of plasticizer DOP was still in short supply. DOP prices in the city have some downward pressure.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

For raw materials, this week DOP raw materials octanol and phthalic anhydride prices are falling first and then rising, the overall shock rise. Starting from August 26, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol both showed a sharp upward trend, and DOP raw materials may increase in the future. It is expected that DOP market will rise mainly after DOP.

On the downstream demand side, the price of PVC has fallen sharply this week, while the demand for PVC has fallen. Overall, the DOP market in the future is negative. However, from the perspective of the rise and fall, the decline is small and the DOP bearish is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business associations, believes that the recent rise in DOP raw materials prices, DOP costs, and DOP rising pressures in the future increase; in terms of demand, the overall market of the plastic industry is stable, and the market for plasticizers is limited. In the external market, DOP prices fell slightly, which was bad for DOP, but overall, the rising power of raw materials was greater than bad pressure, and DOP market in the future still had some momentum, but there was little room for increase. DOP prices in the future were expected to rise slightly.