On August 8th, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15th, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 8th, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 7, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 774-776 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 793-795 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 7, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 51.09 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.54 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 56.23 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.71 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which has lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of p-xylene market is temporary. Steady. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA prices declined on the 8th. The average price of East China was raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. As of the 7th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 94.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 84%, and the downstream production and sales rate did not change much. However, PTA market prices were slightly lower. It is expected that PX market prices will be lower in the later period. Maintain shock.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average spot price of nitric acid in eastern China on August 6 was 1693 yuan/ton, which was 1.36% lower than that of last week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the price of nitric acid in the domestic market fell. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu was 1,680 yuan/ton. The quotation was slightly lowered. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1700 yuan per ton, the quotation is temporarily stable. Shandong manufacturers quoted 1700 yuan/ton, the prices of manufacturers are basically stable, individual manufacturers quoted slightly declined, nitric acid shipment situation is general.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, the quotation is temporarily stable. Downstream TDI, East China TDI market disadvantaged consolidation, the overall atmosphere in the field continued to be light. Downstream aniline, on August 6, the market price of aniline in Shandong was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day, while that in Nanjing was 5,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day.

3. Future Market Forecast

Nitric acid analysts of business associations believe that the nitric acid market may adjust the disadvantage mainly.

In August, the sun was scorching. In recent years, the temperature in all parts of the country has continuously reached an all-time high, and flooding disasters are obviously more than in previous years. Relatively calm is the fertilizer market seems to be in a deadlock, after the fall fertilizer first round of receipts, followed by a slump. At present, most of the pre-harvest policies of compound fertilizer are mainly interest-bearing and bottom-keeping. The downstream acceptance is not good, the enterprises are helpless, and the overall market is weak.

It is certain that the price of compound fertilizer has been relatively stable in recent weeks, and there are not too many supporting factors for price increase and price drop. However, recently, a few enterprises have heard that they want to raise prices through the heat of “environmental protection inspection”. If we can “promote stability through price increase”, we can not only relieve the pressure of enterprises’shipment, but also promote it. The release of downstream demand reduces the risk of market lag. Otherwise, the only thing waiting for compound fertilizer is “price reduction promotion”.

First, raw materials are in a collective downturn. In recent years, not only the compound fertilizer market has caused headaches, but also the raw materials have not been too much surprise. With the fermentation of labeling heat, the domestic urea market can hardly escape the fate of callback. At present, the price of the main producing areas has declined more or less than in the earlier period. In the case of low agricultural demand and poor industrial demand, the latter period is not optimistic. As early as before the start of the fertilizer market in autumn, the so-called hot fertilizer ammonium has shown a rise in price. Willingness, unfortunately, contrary to wishes, the effect of enterprise rally is not obvious, temporarily maintaining relative stability; up to now, the amount of potassium chloride stock in the port is about 3 million tons, the demand is not warm, the follow-up market can be imagined.

Secondly, the downstream demand is insufficient. In addition to the weak raw material market leading to insufficient price support for compound fertilizers, the current downstream demand is also one of the negative factors. After the end of the early low-price advance, downstream began to wait and see. Whether interest-bearing or bottom-keeping, dealers are cautious. The first reason is “off-season price increase” and “off-season price”. Psychology still exists. In the past, such phenomena often occur, which weakens the confidence of dealers in reserve. Compared with early payment, it is more safe to collect along with the sale. The second reason is that this summer’s abnormal climate, frequent drought and flood disasters, to a certain extent, undermine the normal progress of agricultural production and life, which also leads to the relative weakening of enthusiasm for downstream reserve farming.

Finally, we should put an end to the “one-size-fits-all” approach to environmental protection. From July 10 to July 15, less than a week later, the first batch of eight Inspectorate groups of Central Eco-environmental Protection Inspection in the second round have all been stationed. With the “environmental protection” storm coming again, the production situation of enterprises in some areas will be limited, but definitely not the so-called “one size fits all”. In the supervision work of the central ecological environment protection, it is firmly forbidden to protect the ecological environment in a “one-size-fits-all” manner, and to adopt simple and crude acts such as emergency shutdown and shutdown, as well as perfunctory measures such as “all shutdown” and “stop first and then say” to deal with the supervision indiscriminately.

In summary, as of this weekend, the overall starting rate of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises in China is around 43%, and the weekly ratio has dropped by 4%. In addition to environmental protection, weather conditions and downstream demand are the main factors. It is expected that the compound fertilizer market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5370 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5380 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price of domestic ethanol market rose by 0.19%, which was 1.36% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, alcohol market popularization only declined in Anhui, while other parts of the country maintained an upward trend. Northeast Heilongjiang Hongzhanne River Phase II plant shut down, enterprise quotations rose, Jilin large factory inventory is not high, followed by a small upward pace; East China Dongcheng plant started, although the supply side rose, but affected by the price rise in Northeast China, market prices pulled up; Central China and Henan region first fell and then rose, first downstream demand side profit and shortfall. Supported by the favorable supply side, the price went up in the later period, and Xinheyang plant in Henan was shut down; South China was supported by the favorable supply side of raw materials, enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, low-end market prices disappeared, market prices went up slightly, the export volume of goods from northeast China was general, and there was no water supply from other places to Hong Kong for the time being. Wen.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the average weekly price of Maize in Northeast Jilin closed at 1740 yuan/ton, down 4.67% from last week’s price. The price of dried cassava chips in upstream Thailand remained stable, mainly due to the current season of fresh cassava production. Cassava entered the starch market more and dried chips exported less. Up to now, FOB 235-240 US dollars per ton. The theoretical price of ports in eastern China was 1900-1920 yuan per ton. Domestic enterprises were affected by the weak demand downstream. Parking to avoid the market, raw material procurement is not good. Downstream, East China Ethyl Acetate 5400 yuan/ton, down 1.82% from last week’s price.

3. Future Market Forecast

Looking at the market next week, Eastern China Ethyl Ester will start construction stably in the near future, receiving goods relatively stable, supporting the consumption of goods, but there are many cases of shutdown in other chemical downstream high-temperature weather; Northeast China is mainly concerned about the restart time of shutdown enterprises, the current factory shipment pressure is greater, driven by the mentality of small factories, or one. In the mid-to-mid-term of Xinheyang Plan in central China, favorable bidding operation of factories, together with the pressures of loss in Henan factories at present, the bidding mood of factories is strong, but the short-term demand for liquor is difficult to recover. Southern China maintains the mentality of just needing to buy liquor, and the short-term market is not warm and persistent. Ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the short-term trend of regionalization of the domestic ethanol market is obvious.

Price Trend

The domestic xylene market has been strong this week, rising steadily, with a weekly increase of about 2%, due to the support of downstream demand, according to a large number of data from business associations.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by downstream demand, the market price of xylene has been firm and rising steadily this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5850-5880 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, this week’s transaction is still acceptable. Compared with last week’s, the port stock dropped by 4,000 tons to about 65,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by Trump’s tariff comments, this week’s oil prices rose and fell unevenly, spot Brent rose 0.43%, Brent futures rose 0.52%, WTI futures fell 4.12%, Dubai futures rose 0.32%.

On the downstream side, in the PX market, the overhaul unit was restarted and new units were put into production to support the demand for isomeric xylene. In the PTA market, the possibility of PTA weakening in the short term is greater due to the restart of equipment maintenance and the increase of supply pressure. On the OX market, the external quotation fell, while the downstream market of phthalic anhydride and plasticizer warmed up.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the situation in the Middle East, the United States and Iraq, the follow-up game of Sino-US trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand in the global economic outlook after a new round of interest rate cuts by the global central bank. Overall, the toluene market is expected to adjust next Tuesday.