Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of July 11, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the overall market was not hot.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The overall price of domestic aggregated MDI market continued to decline slowly. The early market continued to be light and tidy, and the stockholders followed suit. There were many negative drops in the delivery of goods. A sudden stop of a device in Europe has been reported in the market. Domestic factories need to transfer goods urgently and the supply of factories has been tightened. However, there are different opinions, and some agents have raised their prices slightly. At present, the exact verification of which device, which line and what problems arise in Europe is not available. It is a means of market hype.

On the market side, the aggregated MDI market in South China has been smoothly consolidated. Encouraged by the news, the holders generally hold firm quotations, some tentative increases, inquiries are general, wait and see the price of Cox founder. The aggregate MDI market in East China has stabilized and consolidated. The news boosted the market quotation to stop falling and the low price disappeared. The holder’s quotation is cautious, accompanied by shipment, and the turnover situation is not obviously better. The aggregated MDI market in North China was tidied up and low prices disappeared. Influenced by the news from market suppliers and manufacturers, the mindset of the industry has been boosted, the market price has stopped falling, the price of the holder has risen tentatively, and the trading situation needs to be improved.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: Shandong pure benzene market price is stable, the mainstream is 4910-5150 yuan per ton. The market divergence is large, there are individual factory shipments are still acceptable, but most refining reflects the general goods. Pure benzene external market continues to rise, market participants are more optimistic about the future trend of pure benzene. Aniline: Aniline market is stable. Downstream demand is weak, aniline factory inventory declines slowly, at present, the factory is mainly stable price de-inventory. North China mainstream negotiation price reference at 5900-6070 yuan/ton. East China market mainstream reference 6100-6200 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: Business Cooperative Aggregate MDI analysts predict that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market wait-and-see is dominant, affected by news, prices can stop falling and stabilize.

On July 8, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 9th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations were in the range of 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recent domestic nitric acid price fluctuation, as of the 9th day, the market price is 1793.33 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is stable, the market performance is weak, the market turnover is still acceptable, and the quotations of most manufacturers are stable. The price quotation of manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 2850-3600 yuan/ton. The price quotation in the northwest region is around 2750-2900 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high. Normal shipment, rational purchasing of downstream manufacturers and declining price of raw materials in the upstream have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

On July 8, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.20% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 18.59% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5800-6000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the phthalic anhydride market in North China is still under pressure. Mainstream quotation ranges from 5800 to 6000 yuan/ton, market price rises slightly, quotation of enterprises rises slightly, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, phthalic anhydride price trend is rising.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7400 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.

On July 5, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 5th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field, 50% of Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started operation, one line of Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started operation, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 4, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 10 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 818-820 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 837-839 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

WTI crude oil futures closed on July 4. Brent crude oil futures prices fell in August to $63.30 per barrel, a decline of $0.52. Crude oil prices declined, losing some cost support for downstream petrochemical products prices, while xylene market prices temporarily stabilized. Recent textile industry prices have fallen, PTA prices have declined on the 5th day. The average offer price in East China is raised near 6700-6800 yuan/ton. By the 4th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 99%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market prices have declined, and it is expected that the price of PX market will remain earthquake in the later period.

On July 3, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 55.64, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.68% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 14.91% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiations is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton in the phthalic anhydride market in North China. Mainstream quotation ranges from 5700 to 5800 yuan/ton, market price rises slightly, quotation of enterprises rises slightly, downstream start-up is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, phthalic anhydride price trend is rising.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.