1. PVC rose 6.27% in the whole year

 

The domestic PVC market trend in 2019 is quite volatile and changeable. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream at the beginning of the year was 6575 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on December 24 was 6987.5 yuan / ton, up 412.5 yuan compared with the quotation at the beginning of the year, up 6.27% in the year.

 

2. PVC fell 1.98% in the first quarter

 

In the first quarter of 2019, the domestic PVC market is in the low consolidation stage. According to the data monitored by the business association, on January 1, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 6575 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 6445 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 130 yuan or 1.98%. The market is intertwined by many factors, and the price of PVC mostly fluctuates in the range of 6300-6800.

 

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3. PVC rose 4.16% in the second quarter

 

In the second quarter of 2019, the domestic PVC market rose and fell sharply, reaching a commanding high of 7142.5 yuan in mid May, and then began to fall. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on April 1 was 6432.5 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on June 30 was 6700 yuan / ton, with the quotation rising by 267.5 yuan, or 4.16%.

 

4. PVC rose 0.19% in the third quarter

 

In the third quarter of 2019, the domestic PVC market gradually changed from the off-season to the peak season, with fluctuating prices. According to the data monitored by the business association, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on July 1 was 6712.5 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on September 30 was 6725 yuan / ton, with the quotation rising by 12.5 yuan or 0.19%.

 

5. PVC rose 3.9% in the fourth quarter

 

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the domestic PVC market rose sharply in the off-season. According to the data monitored by the business association, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on October 1 was 6725 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on December 24 was 6987.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 262.5 yuan or 3.9%.

 

6. Up 6.65% in a single month

 

In April 2019, the market price of domestic PVC rose from 6432.5 yuan / ton on April 1 to 6860 yuan / ton on April 30, up 427.5 yuan / ton, the largest monthly increase in 2019, up 6.65%.

 

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7. 3.61% drop in a single month

 

In January 2019, the price of domestic PVC market dropped from 6575 yuan / ton on January 1 to 6337.5 yuan / ton on January 31, the largest monthly decline, with 237.5 yuan or 3.61% down.

 

8. In 2019, the maximum price difference of domestic PVC is 842.5 yuan / ton

 

In 2019, the lowest price of domestic PVC price appeared from the end of February to the beginning of March, with the lowest price of 6300 yuan. In mid May, it reached a commanding high of 7142.5 yuan. Compared with the lowest price, the highest price difference of domestic PVC price this year is 842.5 yuan / ton.

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1、 Price data

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel oil held steady in the whole week, but all declined slightly. The price of domestic gasoline was 6655 yuan / ton, 0.73% lower than that of last week; the price of domestic diesel oil was 6388 yuan / ton, 1.36% lower than that of last week.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: the international crude oil continues to vibrate this week, and on December 16, the domestic refined oil price adjustment ran aground. This week, the market sentiment of gasoline and diesel oil is not high, and the market price is stable with a drop.

 

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Industry chain: after the first phase agreement reached between China and the United States at the beginning of this week, market pessimism recovered. At the same time, OPEC deepened the agreement on production reduction, which also enhanced the expectation of tight supply end of the oil market in the future, driving the overall recovery of the crude oil market. The bullish atmosphere in the international crude oil market began to pick up. WTI crude oil futures rose 0.97% last week.

 

Market: this week, the international crude oil price rose slightly, but the domestic refined oil market has a limited role in boosting. In terms of gasoline, there is still no good support in terms of gasoline market demand, and the overall performance of gasoline prices is flat. In terms of diesel, the weather continues to turn cold, the diesel market just needs to be further suppressed, and the price of diesel market continues to decline in the week. This week, there will be no new start-up and new shutdown of local refineries, and most of the refinery start-up load will remain stable. On the whole, there is no significant change in the refined oil market, and it continues to be stable.

 

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3、 Future forecast

 

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at business news, said: the international crude oil market is weak, and the market demand for oil products is not well supported. It is expected that the market price of oil products will continue to decline steadily next week.

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1、 Price trend

The domestic isomeric xylene market fell this week, down about 1.79% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: influenced by the coming of the long holiday in Europe and America, the market trend of this week fell back last week, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 5800 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, the market is cautious. Compared with last week, the trading volume this week was average, and the port inventory slightly decreased, about 25000 tons.

 

2. Industrial chain:

 

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil price is generally volatile. As of Friday, spot Brent fell 0.08%, Brent futures rose 0.33%, WTI futures fell 0.07%, and Dubai futures rose 1.51%.

 

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In the downstream, in the PX market, the external price is about US $801-803 / ton FOB South Korea and US $821-823 / ton CFR China. Influenced by the long holiday in Europe and the United States, the downstream textile industry has entered the seasonal off-season of demand. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain the level of 6700 yuan / ton next week. In terms of PTA market, the price of external market is about 610 US dollars / ton, while the price of domestic PTA spot market continues to rebound slightly, and it is expected that PTA market will maintain a weak shock in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, at 6200 yuan / ton. The external quotation of o-benzene is stable, and it is expected that the future market of o-benzene will maintain a small fluctuation trend.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, we will continue to focus on the market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino US trade negotiations and the crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction. On the whole, with the coming of the long holiday in Europe and the United States, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate steadily next Tuesday.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of the business association, as of December 18, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 415 yuan / ton based on the quotation of sample enterprises in several mainstream areas, and the price was not fluctuated much compared with the early December.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: the new orders of domestic phosphorus ore market are still poor this week. The market is light and weak. Some mining enterprises purchase sporadically in the lower reaches. Production is limited and prices are guaranteed. The low season is coming. The prices are basically unchanged before the Spring Festival. In early December, the prices of some large factories in Guizhou are slightly reduced. At present, the prices of 30% ammonium phosphate ore car in Guizhou are 340-430 yuan / ton; the prices of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou kaiphosphate phosphate are 340-430 yuan / ton After the quotation of stone was slightly reduced last week, the price of this week is basically the same, and the ex factory quotation reference is around 350-370 yuan / ton; the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship board in Hubei is around 430-440 yuan / ton, the quotation of 28% grade phosphorus ore in Liushugou is around 390 yuan / ton, the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Liushugou is around 440 yuan / ton, the quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car board in Yunnan is around 275 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Sichuan is around 350-370 yuan / ton The quotation of 26% grade high magnesium phosphate ore in Mabian area is around 250 yuan / ton.

 

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Industry chain: Recently, there are not many new orders in the yellow phosphorus market, and the on-site quotation is stable and wait-and-see. There is no transaction of new orders with low price. At present, the transaction of new acceptance orders in Yunnan area is near 17800 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market is temporarily stable, the raw material yellow phosphorus goes down, and the cost support is insufficient.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will continue to be weak in the near future.

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I. price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on December 13 was 5683 yuan / ton, the highest price in nearly half a year, up 17.59% compared with last week, a rare increase in the near future.

 

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At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4790 yuan / ton. After a week’s continuous increase, the price on Friday was 5650 yuan / ton. Recently, the price exceeded 5500 yuan / ton for the first time, up 17.95%.

 

II. Analysis of influencing factors

 

As of December 10, the comprehensive daily operation rate of glycol unit is 65.64%, including 60.96% for oil plant, 64.28% for coal plant and 98.7% for methanol plant. In December, new ethylene glycol units of Rongxin chemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical will be put into operation. According to the plans announced at present, Rongxin chemical plant is planned to be put into operation in the near future. Hengli petrochemical plant is expected to be put into operation on December 20, and the effective capacity of domestic ethylene glycol will be further increased, at that time, the supply of ethylene glycol will continue to increase.

 

Downstream polyester enterprises began to announce their plans for production reduction and suspension before the Spring Festival. As of December 5, the 2.63 million T / a polyester plant has been put into maintenance, and 5.72 million T / a plant will be shut down for maintenance later, of which 1.84 million T / a plant will be maintained in December. As of the week of December 5, the cycle operation rate of domestic polyester chip is 87.75%, that of polyester staple fiber is 77.73%, that of polyester filament is 77.6%, and the cycle operation rate of polyester filament is 0.3%, 3.92% and 1.3% respectively.

 

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As of Thursday, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 324100 tons, down 40300 tons from last Thursday and 4900 tons from Monday. Among them, 137100 tons were in Zhangjiagang, down 35300 tons from last Thursday; 40000 tons in Ningbo; 47000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu, down 30000 tons from last Thursday; 61000 tons in Taicang, down 16000 tons from last Thursday.

 

III. future forecast

 

According to glycol analysts from business news agency, at present, due to the delay in the arrival of cargo due to the closure of the Yangtze River channel, glycol port inventory continues to decline, and glycol spot price will continue to rise in the short term. However, due to the gradual improvement of the domestic glycol unit, a new unit will be put into operation soon, and the glycol supply will increase. The operating rate of downstream polyester plant is decreasing, and the purchasing demand is weakening. In addition, the delayed cargo will be concentrated in the port after that, and ethylene glycol will be accumulated in the main port of East China. Combined with the above factors, glycol price may fall after a period of higher.

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