Price Trend

Business associations: This week’s weak finishing trend in maleic anhydride market (3.18-3.22)

According to data from business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer by the end of the weekend was 7125.00 yuan/ton (including tax), and the offer was weaker.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole showed a weak decline.

Industry chain: First, this week, domestic unsaturated resin stabilization, general downstream demand, resin factory on demand procurement, domestic maleic anhydride market weak finishing, negotiations weakened; secondly, the mainstream factory price weak finishing. The fluctuation of crude oil in the periphery affects the intra-field mentality, and crude oil has a certain supporting market; pure benzene and n-butane raw materials in the upstream are strong, and the market supply is sufficient. In the short run, the profit margins of benzene and butane maleic anhydride are stable. Finally, at present, downstream warehouse replenishment is cautious, and factories are mainly on the lookout.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the near future, and the overall price may be the same as this week, according to the analyst of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

The PX commodity index on April 27 was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Price trend is stable for the time being. The start-up rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 26, the market of p-xylene in Asia rose by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is US$930-932/ton FOB in Korea and US$949-951/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative effect on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On April 26, the price of WTI crude oil in June fell to $63.30 per barrel, a decline of $1.91. Brent crude oil in July fell to $72.15 per barrel, a decline of $2.20. The price of crude oil declined, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of p-xylene market stabilized temporarily. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend temporarily stable 28 days, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6750-6850 yuan/ton, as of 26 domestic PTA start-up rate is about 78%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 91%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, it is expected that later PX market prices will be lower.

On April 24, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 25th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable. The market price of nitric acid is 1560 yuan/ton on the 25th day. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has slightly declined, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3400 yuan/ton on the 25th day. The downward trend of upstream raw material price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium market price trend is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 24, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2232 yuan/ton, and the market trend of domestic methanol market was weak.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market performance is different, both ups and downs are reflected. The overall performance of the methanol market in the Mainland is general, with a partial continuation of the downward trend. The tentative increase of 10 yuan/ton in Shandong and Northern Jiangsu provinces has little impact on the market at present. It is reported that the news of plant restart has increased recently, and most of the operators are short-sighted. On the port market, the crude oil market is strong, supporting methanol futures to a certain extent, and the spot mainly fluctuates with the narrow range of futures. It is expected that the short-term market trend is weak, and we need to continue to pay attention to the device dynamics and futures trend in Northwest China.

In terms of freight, domestic freight for methanol has been continuing to be sorted out recently. The freight rate from the Northern Line of Inner Mongolia to the northern part of Shandong refers to 120-200 yuan/ton, and from the southern line to the northern part of Shandong 130-170 yuan/ton. Part of Shanxi Province is 110-150 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province, and reference 120-150 yuan/ton from Guanzhong to the north of Shandong Province and 120-150 yuan/ton to the south of Shandong Province. Qinghai to North Shandong 280-330 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw methanol continues to be weak trend; safety supervision continues, formaldehyde construction in the lower reaches of Shandong maintains a low level, formaldehyde market trading performance is general, or will decline with raw material finishing later. Now Linyi is around 1350 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are maintained at 1500-1550 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market continued to decline. Enterprises have a high intention to deliver goods, and many offers have been lowered to varying degrees to stimulate receipt of goods. However, the supply and demand fundamentals in the field are still poor. Yanzhou Coal Mine, Nanjing BP and Huayi Small Devices will be restarted one after another, and supply will be upgraded. Domestic demand is weak, the impact of security checks in many places, small enterprises to reduce the burden and parking. Qingdao Navy Festival has affected the transportation and downstream enterprises in the central and Eastern Shandong region to basically stagnate, and demand has declined. Exporters have few discussions and little intention to make inquiries. Overall, the market mentality is mainly empty. Dimethyl ether: The market of dimethyl ether is rising steadily and moderately, and the market atmosphere is general. Upgraded by liquefied petroleum gas, manufacturers have a strong mentality, but the downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, and it is expected that tomorrow or stability will be the main part of the firm.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the supply side: the overhaul of some devices in the field has not ended, and the local supply side is tighter; crude oil: crude oil has shown strong performance in recent days, to some extent, supporting energy futures. On the negative side, inventory: there are more ships coming to port after arrival, so we need to be vigilant about stock accumulation; on the demand side: at the present stage, security supervision has continued to restrict some downstream demand; on the latter stage, maintenance devices have been restored one after another, and the supply side has raised expectations, and the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the overall performance of the domestic methanol market in the short term is relatively weak.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market price of cryolite was stable this week, with an average price of 6433.33 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated little, down 3.98% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cryolite prices are basically stable this week, and manufacturers have little intention to adjust prices. As of the 19th, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Changshu Hongjia Fluorine Co., Ltd. 7200 yuan/ton, Jiaozuo Civilian Benefit Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Cryolite quoted 5800 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: The domestic fluorite market price declined this week. The weekend price was 2825 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from 2835 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and up 3.48% from the same period last year. Domestic fluorite prices remained volatile this week, fluorite farms began to operate at normal levels, fluorite flotation units in Hebei Province recently restarted, fluorite supply increased, affected by various factors, fluorite prices slightly lower. Downstream Electrolytic Aluminum: Aluminum prices continued to rise this week, with prices remaining at 13843.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14070.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with prices rising by 1.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of the cryolite industry of the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of fluorite in the upstream declines and the price of aluminium in the downstream rises concussively. The cryolite market is expected to run smoothly.