I. price trend

Business agency: MTBE market price rises in November

According to the data of the business agency, the market price of MTBE rose in November. At the end of November, the price of MTBE was 5567 yuan / ton, up 5.70% from 5266 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Market analysis

Product: WTI crude oil market price rose 7.25% in November. Restricted by the weak gasoline demand, the domestic gasoline market price rose only 2.43% in November, driving the price of MTBE downstream market up.

Industry chain: since November, the market demand for refined oil has remained low, but in November, the price of domestic refined oil market has increased continuously by two price adjustments, driving the price of domestic refined oil market to rise slightly. In November, the market price of gasoline rose by 2.43%.

Market: at the beginning of the month, supported by the sharp rise of international oil price, the price of MTBE manufacturers in the North kept rising under the smooth shipment. Although the overall demand in the south market was relatively general, it rose tentatively driven by the tight supply and favorable news. In terms of supply, the start-up load of MTBE plant began to drop to a relatively low level in mid October, until the overall start-up load of MTBE plant rose to a relatively high level of 59% in mid November. In terms of demand, the international crude oil is in an upward trend of shock. The price of domestic refined oil has been adjusted for two consecutive rises. The gasoline and diesel prices have risen by 175 yuan and 170 yuan / ton respectively, which has certain support for the domestic oil market atmosphere.

III. future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency, the international crude oil price is relatively high, with weak growth, the gasoline market price lacks demand support, and the MTBE market price lacks momentum for growth. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will fall steadily in December.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and consolidated in November. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4362.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4350.00 yuan / ton, down 0.29%. The current price was 5.18% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: in November, the domestic market price of potassium nitrate first fell and then rose. On November 4, Jiaocheng County Hesheng Chemical Co., Ltd. adjusted its price by 100 yuan / ton, 4400 yuan / ton. On November 19, Wentong potash Group Co., Ltd. increased its price by 5 yuan / ton, and 4300 yuan / ton after adjustment. The decline was mainly affected by the slight drop in nitric acid of upstream raw materials, which did not play a certain supporting role in the price of potassium nitrate. In addition, the overall downstream demand is general, the inventory is relatively sufficient, the rising power is insufficient, and the price is mainly stable. In November, the price change is not big, and the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium nitrate of business association, the recent market consolidation of nitric acid is the main trend, spot trading is tepid and tepid, and it is expected that the demand for potassium nitrate will not be greatly improved in the short term, so the market consolidation may continue.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene on the outside market in November fell first, then rose and then fell, which can be said to be ups and downs. At the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was 826.50 US dollars / ton, down 1.58% compared with 839.75 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month, and the current price was down 14.44% compared with last year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: in November, the overall price of ethylene on the outside market fell first, then rose and then fell. The price of ethylene market in Asia rose first, and then it was high and volatile. As of the end of the month, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $818-824 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $807-815 per ton. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the end of the month, the European ethylene market price for FD northwest Europe closed at $878-889 / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at $785-796 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of the month, the price was US $501-513 / ton. As a whole, the market of ethylene fluctuated. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on November 26, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 58.41 US dollars / barrel, up 0.40 US dollars or 0.7% over the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 64.27 US dollars / barrel, up 0.62 US dollars or 1.0% over the previous trading day. Tass, citing three sources close to OPEC, said the group and key partners such as Russia are considering extending the production cut agreement for three to six months, which currently expires in March 2020. Affected by the news, oil prices rose slightly. However, the price of oil also fluctuated in the early stage, which had insufficient support for ethylene, and the external market of ethylene was temporarily at a low level. The lower styrene price has a slight upward trend, and the ethanol price continues to consolidate, which has a limited supporting effect on the ethylene price.

3. Future forecast:

According to ethylene analyst of Business & Social chemical branch, the recent crude oil price has maintained a narrow range of strong shocks, and there are some favorable factors in the market in the short term, including the geopolitical influence of stability maintenance in Iran and Iraq, the increase of OPEC production reduction expectation, the pessimistic sentiment of us inventory data, etc., which support the stronger oil price operation. Therefore, analysts of business data expect that ethylene prices will keep a narrow range of volatility in the future, which does not exclude the possibility of rising.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 #)

2. Latest price (November 26, 2019): 11858.33 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11900-12000 yuan / ton 。

3. Key points of analysis: drought in Sichuan and Yunnan, shortage of ore in Xinjiang, low silicon price in the early stage, production reduction and shutdown of some high-cost silicon plants, industry operation rate moving down, and domestic silicon metal production moving down. According to relevant data, China’s total silicon metal production from January to October 2019 was 1.86 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%.

Since August, the silicon price has rebounded to the bottom, with an obvious upward trend. On the one hand, there are many price cuts in the early stage, and the cost factor has become the leading factor, and domestic manufacturers have strong willingness to stand up for the price; on the other hand, the effect of the dry season is obvious, and the silicon plant is expected to reduce production more intensively, and the market has some feedback.

On the demand side, domestic aluminum alloy industry, organosilicon industry and polysilicon industry are mainly in urgent need of procurement, with more early-stage procurement; the export is relatively flat, according to the customs data, China’s metal silicon export volume in October was 51300 tons, down 18.8% on a month on month basis, down 28.8% on a year-on-year basis.

4. Future forecast: the overall supply will move down, and the focus will be on the change of downstream demand. It is expected that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be mainly strong.

I. price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, in late November, the market of PA66 in China was stable, and the spot price was basically sideways. As of November 22, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 23100.00 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Analysis of influencing factors:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies in the upper reaches of PA66, the domestic adipic acid market has been adjusted in a narrow range in the near future, with little price change, but it is still not out of the downturn. Basically, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder adipic acid from rebounding, and the upstream raw material market has not shown any good. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid, together with the increase of supply, leads to the increase of social inventory pressure. Since October, the market has been in the stage of de stocking. The effect of de stocking for two consecutive months is not obvious. The enterprise inventory and market inventory still maintain a high level, which is also an important reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, there is little change in the upstream cost side. Although pure benzene has ended the downward shock pattern and rebounded slightly, it has not brought much positive effect to the adipic acid market, which may be one of the reasons why the price of adipic acid remains weak. It is suggested to pay close attention to the effect of market de stocking and the follow-up situation of downstream demand. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak in the near future. At present, the market of PA66 in China is in horizontal consolidation and operation. In the aspect of spot supply, the downstream factories are still just in need of goods. The inquiry intention is relatively low, and the demand has not improved. The market is generally bullish, the mentality of the industry is limited, and the on-site trading is flat.

Future forecast:

Business analysts think: PA66 market is stable in the near future. The trend of adipic acid in the upstream is stable temporarily, which has limited support for PA66 cost surface. There is no improvement in the enthusiasm of downstream stock up, and replenishment is just needed. The market is generally buying gas, and the industry is mainly in wait-and-see attitude. PA66 is expected to be stable in the near future.