On April 2, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cycle peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 3rd day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations were in the range of 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas have been forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recent domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton on the 3rd day, the stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined; the price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3460 yuan/ton on the 3rd day, and the temporary stable trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, ammonium nitrate Market price trends remained stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices rose slightly, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain volatile in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’list, the domestic adipic acid market ended its rise in February in March, the market price generally fell, and the quotations of dealers continued to fall. By the end of the month, the quotations were generally between 8350 and 8600 yuan/ton. Overall, this month’s decline was 8.08%. Prices have basically fallen to early February levels.

II. Analytical Review

This month, the market has fallen from a high level, the market atmosphere is cool, dealers’sentiment on entering the market is low, adipic acid prices have dropped by 500-700 yuan/ton compared with February, the market has gradually stalled. At present, the downstream market acceptance of high prices is also general, so that the profit margin is widened. Social inventory still shows some pressure, shipment strength has slightly declined compared with last month, there is some room for negotiation.

On the supply side, the supply is relatively abundant, the plant start-up rate is relatively high, this month distributors have been mainly shipped, the enthusiasm of taking goods is not high. On the other hand, the factory had too much stock in the past year, the market is good, many distributors accumulated a large amount of inventory. At present, the market is turning downward sharply, and the mood of market price reduction to inventory spread, resulting in continuous lower prices, market price quotations and prices. The prices of dealers in North China, East China and South China have been reduced to varying degrees. Some areas have declined by 800 yuan/ton, while most areas have maintained a weak position.

On the demand side, the supply is relatively excessive, but the downstream demand lacks substantial improvement. The downstream start-up rate is still slightly insufficient. The start-up rate is about 50%. The upstream adipic acid has not formed a strong boost. The market is still in the depot cycle. In addition, the cost side also makes adipic acid show some pressure. The upstream pure benzene price also fell sharply, falling by more than 8% in March, subject to cost. Facing the loss of profit, adipic acid market was dragged down by the downward trend of pure benzene. According to the monitoring of business associations, the reference price of East China market is about 8350-8500 yuan/ton, and the price of South China is generally between 8400-8600 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of adipic acid in the branch of business society and chemical industry believe that the current market turbulence is weakening, adipic acid is under the double pressure of excess supply and weak demand, and the market inventory is gradually high, the market is inevitably low. Later, the market may fall into the stage of weak rise and fall. Therefore, business associations believe that adipic acid market is difficult to improve greatly in the short term, and the recent market will be mainly weak in the interval.

On March 31, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 97.78, which was the same as yesterday. It was 30.37% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 82.46% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has declined slightly in recent years. As of the 1st day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10575 yuan/ton, and the starting rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is normal at present, the situation of on-site goods is poor in recent years, some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks, and the ex-factory price has slightly declined due to the recent price of raw materials market. Weak, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is around 9700-10500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 1000-10500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent weakness of the raw material market trend, fluorite price trend slightly lower, has a negative impact on hydrofluoric acid, hydrofluoric acid market price trend slightly declined.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices are temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has been declining due to poor purchasing situation.

Refrigerant field transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but upstream fluorite prices are weak, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP price shocks adjusted in March, showing a wavy rise and fall, and the overall price remained stable. As of March 31, the price of DOP in East China was 8300.00 yuan/ton, down 0.40% from 8333.33 yuan/ton in early March, and 2.83% from the same period last year. Overall DOP prices in East China remained stable in March.

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

DOP market demand was strong in March, but the start-up rate of DOP equipment in plasticizer enterprises remained high. Overall market demand and supply were both booming, market demand was still adequate, while supply was sufficient. Overall plasticizer DOP market was maintained. DOP price rise and fall was mainly related to raw material price. Raw material price decided the rise and fall of DOP price in March.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

As can be seen from the chart above, the price trend of octanol in March is in line with that of DOP. Octanol is the raw material of DOP, and the price rise or fall of octanol determines the trend of DOP. Owing to the breakdown of equipment in octanol enterprises in late March, the supply of octanol was tight, the price of octanol rose, and DOP rebounded with the price of octanol. However, due to the general impact of overhaul equipment output on the overall market output, the market made rapid adjustments, filling the supply gap caused by equipment failure, supply and demand balance, affected by the decline in phthalic anhydride prices, DOP costs fell, DOP prices fell, overall DOP costs fell, the DOP market in the future negative.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst of business association, thinks that the DOP market demand is good at present, but the DOP equipment start-up rate of plasticizer manufacturer keeps high, the supply is sufficient, and the DOP market is stable; the price of raw material octanol and phthalic anhydride is stable, but the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol fell more in March than that of DOP, DOP still has room to fall, and the short-term price increase caused by equipment overhaul of octanol enterprises in March. The phenomena are difficult to appear in the future market. Octanol prices in the future market are still mainly stable, and DOP costs are falling. The performance of DOP market in the future market is still acceptable, but it is still insufficient to support DOP prices. DOP prices fell slightly in April.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring of Shangshe Phosphate Ore Price, the domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable in the past month. At the beginning of March, the main ex-factory quotation range of the phosphate ore market was 400-500 yuan/ton, and the average price was about 450 yuan/ton. Compared with the market situation after the year, there was no significant fluctuation.

II. Market Quotations

Products: At present, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable as a whole in March. At the beginning of March, the price of domestic phosphate ore is as follows: 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 410-470 yuan/ton in Guizhou, 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream platform price 480-550 yuan/ton, 34% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 490 yuan/ton in Hebei, 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 240 yuan/ton without tax, 33% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 390 yuan/ton without tax, 34% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 490 yuan/ton without tax, and 30% grade phosphate ore mainstream factory quoted 490 yuan/ton without tax. % Price of 400 yuan/ton of grade phosphorus ore without tax is mainstream. Until the end of March, the market of phosphorus ore is running normally, the downstream demand is gradually warming up, and the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole shows the trend of stable operation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business associations phosphate analysts believe that the current downstream demand is still acceptable. Generally speaking, due to the influence of the upstream and downstream markets, the downstream phosphate market prices will remain stable in April, with little fluctuation or a slight increase. The specific trend of the phosphate ore market depends on downstream demand and market supply conditions and other factors.