I. price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA6 in October was weak, and most brand quotations fell. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 13700.00 yuan / ton, down 5.95% from the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The average spot price of caprolactam in the domestic market at the upstream of PA66 in October decreased by nearly 6.61%. Domestic bearish sentiment increased due to the fall in the price of raw material pure benzene in October. China’s cyclohexanone market plunged sharply, and the intention to make up the position of terminal demand was low, so we should be more cautious and wait-and-see, and the trading volume of chemical fiber single and solvent single in the market was small. Due to the pressure of inventory and delivery, the mainstream factories continue to reduce their quotations. Caprolactam cost end support is poor and downstream procurement is cautious. At present, the domestic market is oversupplied and the terminal demand is insufficient. Due to the increase of market bearish factors, caprolactam market followed the decline; the upstream caprolactam weakened, weakening the support for PA6. In October, the traditional “silver ten” peak season has limited repercussions, the downstream operation is generally cautious, and the overall trading is flat. On the spot side, due to the cost side, the manufacturers failed in trying to hold up the price, and the quotation declined in a weak way.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in October, the domestic PA6 market peak season is not strong, and the spot price is weak. The upstream caprolactam continued to decline, supporting the PA6 cost end poorly. Last month brought a period of peak season, the end of the current paragraph can not be sustained. The downstream replenishment operation is cautious and the demand turns to flat. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be sorted out in the near future.

I. price trend of epichlorohydrin:

Epichlorohydrin market fell, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. As of November 5, the average price of epichlorohydrin was 18300 yuan / ton, down 1.79% compared with November 4. In a three-month cycle, it rose 7.96% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell. The downstream operators have low enthusiasm for participation, and they always hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The market inquiry is just needed for replenishment, and the purchase price is limited. On the spot, the new orders of the shippers are held to let the profits for shipment. At present, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China is about 17900-19000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise on the 5th. The price of propylene began to decline from the end of October. On the first day, it still fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the weekend, the price began to rise again. On the fifth day, it rose by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7230-7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7300 yuan / ton. The downstream epoxy resin lost cost support due to the decline of raw materials, with weak adjustment and operation as the main reason. The actual order needs to be followed up.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 5, 2019, among which there is 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities are R22 (7.76%), trichloromethane (1.42%) and propylene (0.92%). There are 15 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are ammonium sulfate (- 7.84%), R134a (- 4.23%) and cyclohexanone (- 3.39%).

3. Future forecast:

Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business agency believe that the rebound of upstream propylene price has little impact on epichlorohydrin, and the low gas consumption in the downstream restricts the increase of epichlorohydrin price. It is expected that in the short term, epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by weak finishing operation, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream mainstream manufacturers.

I. price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the recent methane chloride Market in Shandong continues to rise, including the current average price of dichloromethane in Shandong is 2900 yuan / ton, up 7.01% from November 1, and the current average price of trichloromethane is 2150 yuan / ton, up 13.16% from November 1.

II. Cause analysis

Product reason: affected by the negative impact of enterprise maintenance, the spot supply of methane chloride in Shandong market has been greatly tightened. Under the situation of just stable demand, the price of methane chloride continues to rise. At present, the industry has a good mentality and strong intention to hold up the price. In terms of enterprise maintenance, Shandong Dongyue 280000 tons / year plant maintenance to the middle of November, Shandong Jinling reduced the load, Luxi Chemical started 60% and executed more foreign trade orders. At present, the quotation of dichloromethane in Shandong is 2900 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 2120 yuan / ton; the quotation of dichloromethane in Jiangsu is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 3800 yuan / ton; the quotation of Liwen dichloromethane in Jiangxi is 3000 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 2850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, natural gas prices are surging and falling, the terminal market acceptance capacity is limited, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the pressure is downward. At present, it is about 3840 yuan / ton; due to the poor demand in the downstream and limited, the methanol market is weak, at present, it is about 2150 yuan / ton; affected by the inspection and repair, the supply in the industry is tight, and the price is firm. At present, the enterprise reports about 700-800 yuan / ton more. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market continues to be weak, and the terminal market demand is flat, which is expected to remain weak in the short term; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be stable, which is good for the price support of methane chloride.

Industry:

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%). There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%).

III. future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, Luxi Chemical has gradually completed the external orders, and now it has been delivered normally. Shandong Jinling plans to overhaul around the middle of November to the end of the month. The spot supply of methane chloride in Shandong is still tight, and the price of methane chloride is expected to be high and firm in the short term when the demand is just stable.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply in October. As of October 31, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 5375.00 yuan / ton, down 612.50 yuan / ton or 10.23% compared with 5987.50 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the month (October 1), and down 30.94% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In October, the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, fell sharply, while the price of methanol fell sharply. The demand for acetic anhydride is poor, the operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers is maintained, the supply of acetic anhydride is stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, customers purchase on demand, the overall market of acetic anhydride is more negative than positive, and the market of acetic anhydride is under great pressure.

Industry chain factor analysis:

As can be seen from the figure, the price of acetic acid fell sharply in October, down by 18.84%. The price of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell sharply, which was negative for acetic anhydride. The cost of acetic anhydride enterprises has dropped significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride market decline has increased.

In terms of methanol, methanol fell in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride produced by methanol method decreased. The market of acetic anhydride in the future is negative, and there is room for acetic anhydride to fall. Overall, acetic anhydride raw materials were negative significantly, and it is expected that the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market will increase.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, in October, the price of raw materials of acetic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride fell dramatically; in terms of downstream customers, the demand for acetic anhydride was poor, downstream customers purchased on demand, the demand for acetic anhydride was limited, and there was no upward momentum for acetic anhydride. On the whole, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride has no upward momentum, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

I. overall trend

In October, the trend of three major PE products in the domestic market showed a downward trend, and LLDPE, HDPE and LDPE in East China continued to decline this month. According to the monitoring of the business association, the end of LLDPE 7042 was reduced to about 7450 yuan / ton; the end of LDPE 2426h was reduced to about 8400 yuan / ton; the end of HDPE 5000S was reduced to about 8316.67 yuan / ton; the decline range was all in the range of 200-300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

October was the peak season of demand for agricultural film, but the focus of PE market continued to move down, and the downstream orders were not as good as previous years, and the price of raw materials was expected to be more bearish. This month’s linear futures fell in shock, although rebounded during the period, but the overall weakness, Limited good for the market. Petrochemical has repeatedly lowered the factory price, weakened the market cost support, and affected by environmental protection, the production of terminal enterprises is blocked. Most of the lower reaches are just in need of replenishment, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. In the month, petrochemicals maintained a strong inventory control capacity, and the inventory was kept at a medium low level, but the good continued to be insufficient, which still could not save the declining situation. Most of the goods are shipped by the carrier, and the price continuously gives way to the profit.

Futures: on October 31, the opening price of main contracts of polyethylene futures l2001 was 7260, the highest price was 7335, the lowest price was 7255, the closing price was 7270, the former settlement price was 7285, the settlement price was 7295, down 15, down 0.07%, the volume was 388462, the position was 619888, and the daily increase was 4334. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of downstream enterprises, in October, the downstream demand of the agricultural film market basically entered the peak season stage. In the peak season, many manufacturers have ordered a large number of goods in advance, with relatively stable supply and demand and high load operation of the device. At the end of October, the operating rate of agricultural film was about 58%. End of mulch film and garlic film. The overall economic situation is flat, the downstream operation wait-and-see mentality is obvious, and the procurement is just needed.

Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.

III. future forecast

PE analysts of business club believe that the volatility of futures trend to some extent depresses the confidence of the industry, the traditional peak demand season did not meet expectations, the international crude oil fell, and the demand for agricultural film turned weak. At present, it is close to the end of the peak season, with limited market benefits, but at present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen down. In addition, due to the shutdown of some manufacturers’ devices, the market supply has decreased, which supports the market. It is expected that the PE market will decline slightly in November.