On March 3, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 67.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.56% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 40.02% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has been slightly lower. The market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is weak and consolidated. The downstream factories maintain just in need of purchasing. The inventory pressure of factories is persistent and high-end transactions are blocked. The mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiation is 6700-7000 yuan/ton, and that of naphthalene source negotiation is 6600-6700 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6750-7000 yuan/ton, and the market is The price of phthalic anhydride plant in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of phthalic anhydride is stable.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of the upstream product is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable, the stock of the port is at a low level, the actual transaction price of the port is slightly higher, the price of o-phthalic anhydride is rising, the cost of imported o-phthalic phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, DOP price downstream shocks. Recently, in Zhejiang DOP market, merchants’quotations are maintained at 8525-8700 yuan/ton, while downstream prices are at a low level. Demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6900 yuan/ton in the later period.

India’s oil refineries processed 2.94 million tons of crude oil in January, an average of 5.2 million barrels of crude oil a day, down 3.6% from a year earlier, according to the latest statistics released by India’s Ministry of Petroleum in New Delhi today, reflecting a partial shutdown of the private refiner, RIL.

Compared with 100% in December last year and 114.6% in January last year, the average utilization rate of Indian refineries in January was 104.4%.

Analysts said the overall decline in crude oil processing business in India in January was mainly due to the shutdown of crude oil distillation and coking units at the Jamnagel Refinery in Gujarat State about four weeks from January 16.

In January, RIL’s domestic-focused refineries started at 79%, compared with 104.5% in the same period last year.

India’s total refining capacity in January increased by 4.3% compared with December last year, as private refinery Nayala Energy operated at full capacity after the full restructuring and restart.

Price trends:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of o-benzene was stable in February 2019. As of February 27, the price of o-xylene was 6 800.00 yuan/ton, which was 6 800.00 yuan/ton compared with the price quoted by O-xylene (OX) on February 1. The price remained stable, rising by 3.23% year on year.

2. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In February, the inventory of benzene in East China Port was at a low level. As of February 27, the inventory in East China Port was about 15,000 tons, which maintained a low level. Outside quotation of Phenyls increased. On February 27, the external quotation of Phenyls in Europe was $980.00/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, which was $810/ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. Outside quotation price rose sharply, the cost of imported Phenyls increased, and the momentum of imported Phenyls increased, which had a positive impact on domestic prices of phenyls. 。

Factor analysis of industrial chain:

As can be seen from the above chart, the rise of mixed xylene shocks in February has a greater positive impact on o-xylene. In February, the price of mixed xylene rose by 2.23%, the price of o-xylene remained stable, the rise of mixed xylene and the increase of the motive force of o-xylene rise have a positive impact on the future market of o-xylene.

As can be seen from the chart above, the price of phthalic anhydride fell by 1.42% in February, and the price of o-xylene remained stable. The decline of phthalic anhydride price has some pressure on the decline of the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the future. Phthalic anhydride has a negative market for phthalic anhydride and a downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.

3. Future market forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of o-xylene data from business associations, in February, the quotation of o-xylene external market rose sharply, while the price of imported o-xylene increased, which had a positive impact on o-xylene. The low level of port o-xylene inventory played a positive role in domestic o-xylene market. In the industrial chain, the price of mixed xylene in upstream raw materials rises, the cost of phthalic acid increases, and the market of phthalic anhydride in downstream is favorable to phthalic acid; the market of phthalic anhydride in downstream continues the previous downward trend, the demand for phthalic anhydride decreases, and the market of phthalic acid produces a negative effect on phthalic acid. The overall market of phthalic acid is mixed, and the stock of phthalic acid in the market is too low, Customers need to purchase phthalates at a high price. The actual transaction price of phthalates in the secondary market is about 7200 yuan/ton, which provides greater support for the rise of phthalates in the future. It is expected that the price of phthalates will rise again in the future.

On February 25, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 104.13, down 1.13 points from yesterday, down 25.85% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 94.31% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been declining recently. As of 26 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11475 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is more than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is sufficient, the situation of goods on the spot is getting worse recently, some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks, and the ex-factory price has been lowered continuously, but due to the high level of raw material market. Supported by this, the price decline of hydrofluoric acid market is very limited. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10500-11500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 11000-12000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices are lower, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent lower raw material market prices, fluorite prices fell, lost cost support for hydrofluoric acid, hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to fall.

Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started generally, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water out-of-factory quotation dropped to 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the bad impact of purchases, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid upstream has weakened, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Refrigerant on-site transaction prices slightly lower, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate is low, for the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid weakened, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry to resist the high price sentiment of raw materials, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to decline, hydrofluoric acid prices will be around 11,000 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

The propane market fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of propane was 4087.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 4045 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.04%, 13.6% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market fell slightly, and the trading atmosphere was general. As of February 15, propane from Dongming Petrochemical Company of Shandong Province and Zhonghai Fine Chemical Company of Shandong Province were not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4150 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4130 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4050 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4050 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4050 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3950 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic liquefied gas market rose slightly this week, with an average price of 3916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3690 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price increased by 1.11% and fell by 4.65% compared with the same period last year. The domestic propylene (East China) market fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of liquefied petroleum gas in the domestic market was 7870 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 7460 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 5.21%, which was 14.76% lower than the same period last year. Saudi CP in January: $430 per ton of propane, down 15% from last month. Butane is $420/ton, up 5% from last month. Due to the import of more resources, coupled with low prices, negative downstream market mentality, the overall atmosphere is general, manufacturers’shipments are blocked, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, inventory pressure declined.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 06th week (2.11-2.15) of 2019, there were 21 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 4.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were ethylene (13.62%), epichlorohydrin (9.65%) and hydrogen peroxide (7.67%). There are 21 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are sulphur (-8.67%), propylene (-5.21%) and liquid ammonia (-5.14%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.12%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts of business associations believe that: at present, the effect of low-cost shipment is better, and the factory storehouse is smooth. The market is expected to rise steadily in the future.