Trade name: phenol

East China market (October 16): 7750 yuan / ton

Trend chart of domestic phenol Market Price

Analysis: the domestic phenol market continues to be weak. The atmosphere in the market continues to be poor, the enthusiasm of downstream terminal market inquiry slows down, the delivery of goods is not smooth, there are many phenomena of low inventory and low output, the focus of pressure is weak, and it is difficult to increase the trading volume. It is estimated that the negotiation range of phenol Market in East China is 7650-7750 yuan / ton.

As of October 16, the offer of phenol in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation
East China 7750     -150
8000-100 in Shandong
Yanshan surrounding area 7800-     150
South China 8150

-50

 
Trade name: acetone

Market price (October 16, East China): 4500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic acetone market continues to operate in a weak position. Although the trading atmosphere in the market has improved slightly, the overall transaction follow-up is general, and the cargo holders are actively shipping, while the terminal factories just need to purchase, and the transaction of small orders is carried out. It is estimated that the negotiation range in East China market today is 4500-4550 yuan / ton; the negotiation range in surrounding markets of Yanshan is 4800-4850 yuan / ton; the main negotiation range in South China market is 4600 yuan / ton.

As of October 16, the quotation of acetone in all markets in China was as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation
East China 4500   -50
Shandong 4750    -50
Yanshan surrounding area 4800   -50
South China 4600    -50

Price trend:

The domestic market of dimethyl ether continued to rise, with a large range. On September 4, the average price of the domestic market of dimethyl ether was 2880 yuan / ton, and on October 15, the average price was 3550 yuan / ton, with an increase of 23.26% in 40 days. The price was 25.09% lower than that of the same period last year.

With the end of the off-season demand in August, after entering the “golden nine”, the DME market opened an upward channel, and the price rose to a relatively high level. Affected by the gas market, the market demand has improved, but the trend of liquefied gas has not reached the expectation, so the dimethyl ether Market in the early September is not obvious. After the incident in Saudi Arabia on September 14, the crude oil market soared, and the dimethyl ether market rose one after another. Subsequently, under the influence of the national day, the demand for replenishment before the festival increased, and the market atmosphere was good. In addition, some manufacturers stop before the festival, the supply in the area is reduced, the relationship between market supply and demand is broken, the shipment of manufacturers continues to be smooth, the inventory of many factories is cleared, and the price continues to push up. After the festival, the cost of methanol increased significantly, and there was still a demand for replenishment in the downstream. Dimethyl ether continued to increase. Henan xinlianxin increased 300 yuan / ton for six consecutive days, and the manufacturer reported that the delivery was good. Until October 15, the DME market recovered after rising. In the early stage, some manufacturers started to operate their devices, the market supply increased, the downstream receiving strength weakened, and the market returned to rationality.

Industrial chain:
It can be seen from the figure that the price change trend and range of dimethyl ether and methanol are basically the same, and the overall price of methanol market continues to rise, with a large increase and more frequency. Under the support of cost, the market of DME should rise. At present, the methanol inventory in the northwest main production area is low, and the manufacturer has no delivery pressure for the time being, and the price continues to be strong. After the festival, the downstream market gradually recovered, some downstream enterprises actively replenished, the methanol market in the mainland shipped smoothly, and the northwest main production area was strong, the on-site operators had a positive attitude, and the market trend around Bohai Sea and Huaihai continued to rise. On the port side, the trend of the port is strong and the on-site gas buying is good, and the expectation of the operator for the later period is fair. In terms of units, a 600000 T / a methanol unit in Gansu was restarted, a 600000 T / a unit in Shaanxi was restarted, and several early-stage shutdown units in Shanxi were restarted.

It can be seen from the figure that the trend of DME and LPG is rising as a whole, but the rise of LPG is less than that of DME. At present, the price difference between gas and ether in Henan Province is 200-300 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 440-600 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 400-500 yuan / ton. In September, the peak season of the gas market is coming. It is reasonable to say that the liquefied gas market should usher in a new wave of upward trend. However, due to the slow improvement of terminal demand and limited consumption capacity, it is difficult for the market to get a substantial improvement. In the early stage, narrow adjustment has been the main trend. Until the international oil price soared and the international spot market rose, the domestic liquefied gas market, which has been continuously tepid and tepid, ushered in a wave of push ups. However, with the fall of international crude oil, the liquefied gas market gradually returned to the normal price level. After the introduction of CP in October, the price hike was implemented. The industry has sufficient confidence in the future market and is more active in replenishment. After the festival, the overall performance of the market was good. Sinopec units raised prices substantially, driving local enterprises to actively follow the rise. The overall delivery situation of the national market was good. However, the inventory pressure in Shandong is obvious, taking the lead in delivering profits, and other regions have no intention of falling under the support of main high prices.

Future forecast:

According to the DME analyst of business association, the domestic price of DME has risen to a relatively high level, the downstream receiving capacity is relatively limited, the cost of methanol has dropped after surging high, and the trend of gas market is weak. On the 16th, Henan xinlianxin implemented the 2-day minimum guarantee policy. Supply side: the operating rate is at a low level, with limited support for prices. Demand side: short-term on-demand procurement based, general enthusiasm into the market. Market mentality: the lower reaches of the high price conflict, mainly wait-and-see. Although there are many negative factors at present, the weather will gradually cool down in the later period, and the market demand will increase. It is understood that the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is not big at present, and it is still in a controllable state. The dimethyl ether Market is expected to decline in the short term, but not by a large margin. In the long run, the market may show a trend of falling first and then rising.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin increased in the third quarter of 2019. On July 1, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5000 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5200 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.00%.

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton. 。 The quotation for the first grade chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: WTI’s November 2019 futures fell $1.11 per barrel on Monday (October 14) at $53.59; Brent’s December 2019 futures fell $1.16 per barrel at $59.35. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract 1912 rose 13 yuan to 464.8 yuan / barrel.

Industrial chain: the crude oil market rose and fell in the third quarter, fluctuating within the range. The mainstream price of liquid wax maintains stable operation, the manufacturer’s shipment is stable, and the inventory is low. The price of liquid chlorine remained stable. Some areas rose slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in September 2019, there were 46 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices, including 30 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 35.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were nitric acid (54.17%), butanone (37.13%) and hydrochloric acid (35.14%). There are 32 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are chloroform (- 20.83%), sulfur (- 16.35%) and R22 (- 14.00%). This month, the average rise and fall was 4.09%.

III. future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the market of chlorinated paraffin rose in the third quarter. Up to now, the overall market turnover in October is weak, the downstream is cautious and the market holds a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable in the later period. It is recommended to pay attention to real-time market trends.

Price Trend

The domestic market climate of BDO has been narrowly warming up. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic market price of BDO was 9520 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and the weekend. The price rose by 2.59% annually compared with the same period last month, and the price fell by 14.07% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic BDO market is going up narrowly. Zhongyu statistics showed that about 51.7% of the acetylene-aldehyde process plant was started, while the Xinjiang Tianye BDO plant was stopped and repaired, and the restart time was uncertain. The BDO plant in Lanshan Tunhe, Xinjiang, and Dongyuan, Inner Mongolia will be restarted and run again. The supply of the BDO plant will increase or the supply will be eased. In the latter part, we will continue to pay attention to the plant dynamics and downstream demand. It is expected that the BDO market will be reorganized and operated next week.

Installation, this week, Kaixiang in Henan plans to start after National Day; Tianye in Xinjiang plans to start 30,000 tons per year normally, while the rest plans to start after National Day; Dongyuan 100,000 tons per year in Inner Mongolia overhauls on August 13, with the restart time pushed to September 20; Tunhe in Lanshan, Xinjiang, about 100,000 tons per year, stops and overhauls on September 10, with a plan of about 15 days. No planned changes in other devices were heard. This week, the overall opening rate of the market remained around 56.3%.

As for the market, as of Friday (10.12), the BDO market in eastern China has been reorganized and operated. The reference quotation for bulk water supply is 8700-9200 yuan/ton, the barreled part of the market is 9600-10000 yuan/ton, the supply is on the tight side, the manufacturers have a strong market intention, the low-end supply is reduced, the downstream part maintains a long contract, some small orders follow up, traders ship on the market, and the future market pays close attention to the news of plant installations. South China BDO market reorganization operation, bulk water quotation reference 8700-9200 yuan/ton, market barrel part of small orders 9600-10000 yuan/ton, some manufacturers inventory is low, spot tension, downstream purchasing more to maintain a long contract, traders offer temporarily stable, some small orders to discuss high-end, the market needs to pay attention to plant news.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, although calcium carbide showed a downward trend this week, the cost-side advantage of BDO still exists. Some production enterprises have abnormal start-up of BDO devices, low factory inventory, shortage of spot supply in the field, and few low-end sources have been heard of. Traders’offer is stable for the time being. They ship goods on the market along with them. The downstream demand has improved slightly. Most of the purchases are long-term. Some of the small orders are more active, and the negotiations are high-end.

Methanol: As for raw materials, with the gradual cooling of replenishment enthusiasm, the delivery rate of methanol market slows down, but the inventory of manufacturers is still low, and the game between supply and demand begins to highlight.

Downstream, PBT: 100,000 tons/year PBT plant in Kaixiang, Henan is still parked, barrel goods are not quoted; 60,000 tons/year PBT plant in Xingxing, Nantong is restarted, barrel goods are not quoted; 80,000 tons/year PBT plant in Yizheng Chemical Fiber is in normal operation, barrel goods are not quoted; 60,000 tons/year PBT plant in Meizhou Bay, Fujian is in operation and normal 12500 offer.

3. Future Market Forecast

BDO factory starts up slightly. At present, the inventory of the factory is low, the cost is firm, and the downstream demand is average. BDO analysts of the business agency predict that the BDO market will operate in a narrow range next week.

According to statistics, the market price of ammonium nitrate rose this week. By the end of the week, the domestic price of ammonium nitrate was 2300 yuan/ton, which was 8.66% higher than the price of 2116.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 12.20% higher than that of the previous year. The market price of ammonium nitrate was substantially higher supported by the price of raw material nitric acid.

On the one hand, the price of ammonium nitrate is rising. On the other hand, the price of ammonium nitrate in the market is supported by the high price of nitric acid in the upstream raw material. The price of ammonium nitrate in the market is rising. The shipment of ammonium nitrate producers has not changed much. The downstream is purchased on demand. Due to the influence of custody and control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China still has a lot of shutdowns. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, supported by good raw materials, the price of ammonium nitrate has risen sharply. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiations in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 2100-2300 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2500 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China has been slightly revised back. Jiangsu Hongze Silver Pearl Chemical quotation 2400 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe quotation 2300 yuan/ton; Shandong Heli Tai quotation 2300 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton higher than last week’s (17 days). Anhui Audley quoted 2300 yuan/; the price of nitric acid has fallen. After the National Day holiday, the factory restarted the parking and maintenance equipment, the supply of concentrated nitric acid increased, the demand of nitric acid market changed little, and the price of nitric acid market declined due to the increase of supply. However, the price of nitric acid market is still at a high level, which has a certain cost supporting role for the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is rising.

The upstream domestic liquid ammonia market has fallen back, the current local ammonia volume is normal, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship goods, but the manufacturers with large ammonia volume have lowered the ex-factory price. The mainstream quotation in Shandong is stable in the market of 2900-3100 yuan/ton liquid ammonia. The average price of liquid ammonia market is 3166.67 yuan/ton. Most of the liquid ammonia producers have general inventory pressure, while the quotation of the manufacturers in the northern region is maintained at 2800-32 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate has risen.

In recent years, the demand of downstream explosion industry has not improved. For ammonium nitrate market demand is limited, ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a high inventory, and the price of raw materials market has fallen. Analysts of ammonium nitrate business associations believe that the price of upstream raw materials nitrate Market has fallen in the near future, and the demand of downstream ammonium nitrate has not changed much. It is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fall slightly later.