On October 10, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 89.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.48% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21) and up 66.45% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, up to the present domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 9780 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%, enterprises reflect that the current on-site supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, the recent on-site hydrofluoric acid is not moving goods, due to the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices are small. The amplitude is low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9000-9500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 9000-10000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid keeps a low level, and the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid drops slightly.

Upstream fluorite market prices remained low, up to 11 days fluorite prices were 2866.67 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices declined to a certain negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, hydrofluoric acid market prices were affected by lower raw material fluorite prices at a low level. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market prices remain low, from the point of view of market supply, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce start-up load, market supply capacity has declined, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainstream at the level of 12,000-14,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, the on-site transaction price is lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, but manufacturers reflect a serious loss, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may decline, but the decline is limited.

On October 10, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 19.43% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 10th, Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou petrochemical plant was running steadily in the field, Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%, Fuhaichuang aromatic hydrocarbon plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being, due to the introduction of new plant in China. The market supply of xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 9, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 4 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 784-786 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 804-806 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 9, the price of WTI crude oil futures market fell to 52.59 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.04 US dollars, Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.32 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.08 US dollars. In September, Saudi key crude oil production facilities were attacked, which once greatly pushed up the international oil price. At present, the attack has brought short-term fluctuations to the international oil price in general. Over the past few days, the international oil price has fallen back to the level before the attack. In the near future, oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the region. The decline in crude oil prices has a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products, but the price trend of paraxylene is stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market start-up rate maintained high, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, as of 9 domestic PTA start-up rate of about 93%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 90%, due to adequate PTA supply, trading atmosphere is general, mainly traders, sporadic polyester factories follow-up by crude oil prices. The price of downstream PTA market will remain low due to the shocks. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain 6,800 yuan/ton in the short term.

On October 8, the PX commodity index was 54.40, up 1.6 points from yesterday, down 46.88% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 19.43% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 9th, Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refining and Chemical Unit was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being, due to the introduction of new units in China. The market supply of xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On Oct. 8, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 780-782 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 800-802 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is stable.

On Oct. 8, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 52.63 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.06 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.24 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.02 U.S. dollars. In September, Saudi crude oil production facilities were attacked, which once significantly pushed up international oil prices. At present, the attack has brought short-term fluctuations to international oil prices in general. Over the past few days, the international oil price has fallen back to the level before the attack. In the near future, oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the region. The decline in crude oil prices has a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products, but the price trend of paraxylene is stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market start-up rate maintained high, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, as of 8 domestic PTA start-up rate of about 93%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 90%, due to adequate PTA supply, general trading atmosphere, mainly traders, sporadic polyester factories follow-up by crude oil prices. The price of downstream PTA market will remain low due to the shocks. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain 6,800 yuan/ton in the short term.

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 7,000 yuan/ton on September 30, with a small fluctuation. Due to the reduction of downstream demand and the off-season of downstream demand in July and August, the trend of carbon black easy to fall and difficult to rise will continue, and the market of carbon black will remain stable in the third quarter.

Market quotation

Domestic carbon black sales are still acceptable, the quotation is still mainly stable. Upstream carbon black raw oil is affected by the shrinkage of coking industry capacity, and its price keeps running at a high level all the time. Comprehensive factors lead to the decline of the gross interest rate of carbon black, the main product of the company, and the quarterly operating profit of the enterprise is compressed. Under the high pressure of national environmental protection supervision, the start-up rate of carbon black industry is limited and supply shrinks. The price of coal tar, the main raw material, remains high, which provides a solid support for the price of carbon black. Domestic passenger car sales have recovered and car ownership has increased steadily. The demand for carbon black is driven by the boom of tire market. Domestic carbon black enterprises are expected to follow the trend of rising prices.

Industry dynamics

The carbon black branch of the China Rubber Industry Association issued the carbon black industry self-discipline proposal. The proposal stated that since the second half of last year, the carbon black industry has experienced unprecedented difficulties, and there has been a situation of loss in the whole industry. In order to ensure the normal production and operation of the carbon black industry, it is advocated that every enterprise consciously limit its production and limit production. According to market demand, it will limit production 10%- on the basis of the original output. 20%, ensure market supply and demand balance; stabilize the carbon black raw oil market, do not participate in promoting bad competition behavior of raw material oil prices; stabilize market sales, and sell according to reasonable profit margins; for export to the international market, China’s carbon black also requires undisorderly competition.

Future market forecast: Carbon black market is expected to rebound in the future stable market.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of asphalt market rose in September. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was 3694 yuan/ton, which was 4.19% higher than that of 3546 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In September, the market demand of East China asphalt was tight, and the market price was rising. The market demand of asphalt in other areas was normal. However, the international oil price soared in the middle of the year, which directly raised the domestic market price of asphalt.

Industry Chain: The Sino-US trade war continued at the beginning of this month with a weak overall atmosphere in the crude oil market. However, in Russia, the market bullish sentiment became stronger as the situation in the United States and Iran deteriorated. Saudi Arabia’s oil equipment was attacked in mid-month. After losing 5.7 million barrels per day of production, the market panicked up nearly 15%, but Saudi Arabia said oil production would resume in a short time and international oil prices would gradually fall in the latter half of the month.

Asphalt market: In September, the overall demand of domestic asphalt market realized smoothly, while demand in East China showed strong performance. In Northeast China, social inventory declined and refinery shipments began to improve; in Shandong and North China, due to the influence of National Day holidays and polluted weather, asphalt transportation and terminal projects were restricted, and the overall demand for asphalt was not good. Demand performance in East China is good, asphalt inventory in major refineries has decreased significantly, Sinopec has continuously raised settlement prices in the latter half of the year, and a large number of foreign resources have flowed into East China. In South and Southwest China, the demand has not changed significantly, and the market supply is still abundant. Driven by strong demand in East China and soaring crude oil prices in mid-September, domestic asphalt market prices went on as a whole.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to Lu Xingjun, asphalt analyst of business association, the international crude oil market is expected to be stable in October, and the price of asphalt is expected to be stable in October due to the lifting of the ban on asphalt demand during the National Day holiday.