In September, the price of magnesium ingots went down step by step. According to the data of business associations, the average market price of magnesium ingots (9990) as of September 27 was 15066.67 yuan/ton, down 3.62% from the average price of 15633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (09.01). At present, the price is at the annual trough.

Since late March, the price of magnesium ingots has been on the downward trend as a whole. On the one hand, based on the increase of domestic production, according to relevant data, 479.7 million tons of magnesium were produced by the Communist Party of China from January to July, an increase of 9.65% over the same period of last year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi is 288,000 tons, an increase of 14.96% year on year; the cumulative production in Shanxi is 713,000 tons, an increase of 32.55% year on year; and the cumulative production in Ningxia is 26,000 tons, a decrease of 45.31% year on year. On the other hand, because of the low price of aluminum ingot, the competitive substitution advantage of low-end ordinary products of magnesium alloys is small.

As a major producer of magnesium products, the current export situation is running well. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 268,500 tons of magnesium products in January-July, up 17.85% year-on-year, with a cumulative amount of $698 million, up 24.35% year-on-year. Among them, 147,700 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, an increase of 27.41%, 63,900 tons of magnesium alloys were exported, an increase of 0.41%, and 52,500 tons of magnesium powder were exported, an increase of 17.33%.

At present, near the National Day holiday, just need to purchase spare goods, the overall market is weak, the main production area magnesium enterprises ex-factory price in 14800-15000 yuan/ton, low-cost supply is less than the previous few days, currently mainly smooth operation.

With the coming of the festival mode, it is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will run smoothly in the near future. Later, we will pay attention to the actual market transactions and the maintenance of magnesium plants.

Price trends:

Since September, the domestic caustic soda market has rebounded, and the atmosphere of price increase is strong. So far, it has seen the largest increase this year, with an overall line of 150-300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business associations in Shandong, the price of caustic soda in Shandong is on the whole going, up to 850 yuan per ton in September, up by 20.57%.

Products: At present, caustic soda in most areas is still on the upward trend. Manufacturers stop production and limit production more, mainstream factories have overall low inventory. For business associations, 32% of ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is above 840 yuan/ton, 50% of ionic membrane caustic soda mainstream transaction price rises to 1410-1430 yuan/ton; for Jiangsu, 200 yuan/ton or so this month, 3. The mainstream transaction price of 2% ionic membrane alkali has risen to 900-950 yuan/ton, and that of 50% ionic membrane alkali has risen to 1450-1500 yuan/ton. This month, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali purchased by Weiqiao has risen by 100 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton, which has a great impact on the local area.

Up to now, the closing of the national market offers are as follows:

Regional Specification Price Increase and Decline
32% Ionic Membrane Base 950+150 in Hebei Province
32% ionic membrane base 950 + 80 in Northeast China
32% ionic membrane base 850 + 180 in Shandong area
32% ionic membrane base 920 + 200 in Jiangsu area
32% ionic membrane base 980 + 250 in Zhejiang area
32% ionic membrane alkali 900 + 180 in Anhui area
Since September, the caustic soda market has gone up a large margin, the main reasons are as follows:

1. The National Day is approaching. There are many rumors that the chlor-alkali industry in North China is going to stop work. At present, Shandong has limited production, no stock of industrial caustic soda is not guaranteed, and more enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are shut down. After the 25th, the liquid chlorine embargo in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang and North China, as well as downstream and traders, will be imposed. In order to prevent the alkali plant from being restricted by liquid chlorine embargo, goods were taken one after another.

2. After the notification of the liquid chlorine embargo which began on September 7 in Jiangsu, the atmosphere of liquid chlorine became tense, and the Anbang load dropped to 30%. It is known that some of the liquid chlorine in Jiangsu has also been sent to Anhui and Zhejiang outside the province. The news of the liquid chlorine embargo is also one of the factors stimulating the increase in alkali prices.

3. The purchase price of Weiqiao alumina has been stable for more than five months. The manufacturers have increased retail prices on National Day to stimulate Weiqiao’s price increase, and the main factories in Shandong Province are not satisfied with the start of construction after the early typhoon. The purchase support of Weiqiao alumina and the inventory have been in a controllable level. After the increase of the purchase price of Weiqiao, the credit of the traders has been greatly boosted. Heart.

Business analysts believe that the market price of liquid alkali in North China will maintain a high level before National Day, and the market performance in East China and Henan is also relatively good, while the domestic market of liquid chlorine will mostly maintain a steady trend. 32% ionic membrane alkali in Shandong province 840-880 yuan/ton. But in October, the environmental protection inspection will be strengthened, the whole industrial chain of the manufacturer will be restricted, the downstream parts of the north and the main alumina will also face production reduction, a large number of sea alkali will arrive in the South during the National Day, low-cost sea alkali will stimulate the southern liquid alkali market, the national market after the National Day or will have a greater impact in the future. End price may not be guaranteed.

I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the domestic copper price fell slightly this week, with the average domestic spot copper price of 47815 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 47403.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 0.86%, 1.57% from the beginning of the year and 5.14% from the year before.

II. Market Analysis

Copper futures and Lun Copper prices: Shanghai Copper Index opened 47,950 yuan earlier this week, then went down under pressure, and rose 47,000 yuan at the end of the week to stabilize the shock. This week, it closed at 47,130 yuan, a decline of 0.78%. LME copper in March fell from a high of $5964.5 to $5776 at the beginning of this week, with a 2.22% drop in the end of the week closing at $5833.5.

On the supply side, data released Wednesday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) showed a shortage of 27,000 tons in the global copper market from January to July 2019 and a global mine copper output of 11.62 million tons from January to July 2019, 0.5% lower than the same period last year. From January to July 2019, the global output of refined copper was 13.26 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% over the same period last year. The output of India and Chile decreased significantly, by 96,000 tons and 19,000 tons, respectively. In July 2019, the global output of refined copper was 1.991 million tons.

Consumption: From January to July 2019, global copper consumption was 13.29 million tons, compared with 13.78 million tons in the same period last year. From January to July 2019, China’s apparent demand was 6.754 million tons, down 3.9% from the same period last year. The output of the 28 EU countries fell 2.6% and the demand was 1.85 million tons, down 6.0% year-on-year. In July 2019, consumption was 1.94 million tons.

In terms of inventory, inventory at the end of July was 144,000 tons higher than that at the end of December 2018. This increase includes 156,000 tons net shipment to LME warehouse and 31,000 tons net shipment to Shanghai warehouse. COMEX copper stocks fell 65,000 tons in the first seven months of this year.

On the macro level, the domestic economic data released this week are generally poor, coupled with the worries about stagflation caused by the surge in crude oil prices over the weekend, and Sino-US trade relations remain unclear.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, the copper analysts of Shangshu Nonferrous Branch believe that the supply side is tight to support the copper price. Although the copper market fundamentals are expected to improve, they still need to wait for time. The short-term spot market is tightly balanced, and there are still opportunities to boost copper prices in the context of late demand expectations and monetary easing. The short-term copper market maintains a narrow fluctuation trend.

On September 24, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 93.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.44% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 74.42% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is low, up to the present domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 300 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid spot source in the field. Recently, the hydrofluoric acid market is not moving, due to the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices slightly lower. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9300-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintains low level, spot supply is sufficient, but demand is poor, hydrofluoric acid market is weak.

Upstream fluorite market prices remained low, up to 24 days fluorite price was 2877.78 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices declined to a certain negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, hydrofluoric acid market prices were affected by lower raw material fluorite prices at a low level. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline slightly.

On September 23, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 70.07, up 0.24 points from yesterday, down 41.67% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 44.71% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6800-6900 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 7100-7200 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, downstream start-up is not high, purchasing on demand is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride is strong. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps rising.

The price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6700 yuan/ton recently. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride factories, the supply of goods on site is tight, the price of phthalic anhydride keeps high, the import market of phthalic anhydride in port area is rising, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in port is good, the stock of port is declining sharply, the quotation of phthalic outside Price is based on negotiation. Recently, domestic overhaul facilities for phthalic anhydride have increased in the field. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is very tight. Supported by the price of phthalic anhydride in the upstream raw material, the market price of phthalic anhydride has continued to rise. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP price is higher, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility is higher, DOP market mainstream transaction price 8050-8250 yuan/ton, downstream price has risen, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a higher trend in the later period.