August 18, the US regional ethylene market closing price rose 8.5 US dollars / ton, FD US Gulf prices closed at 532-542 US dollars / ton.

Small metal cobalt since the opening of the second wave in June after entering the resumption of stagnation in July, enter the market in August again rebounded, according to the business community data show that as of this weekend (August 4), the domestic market, the average price of cobalt rose 410166 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the market average price of 399833 yuan / ton up 2.58 percent, this week rose 2.67 percent. November 2016 cobalt prices rose market so far, has soared 90%, so the pace has not yet stopped.

The same time as

According to the Commodity Index Analysis System, the Cobalt Commodity Index on August 3 was 145.74, up 1.8 points from the previous day, setting a record high in the cycle, up 108.68% from the 69.84 points on July 05, (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).

The domestic price of cobalt this week again on the one hand is from the market in June opened a wave of gains has not yet ended, on the other hand is the impact of external disk, the data show that LME cobalt spot price from the week of 57500 US dollars / ton Rose to 58,500 US dollars / ton, or 1.7%, driven by the domestic disk led the domestic spot market, while domestic manufacturers to settle the cost of imported ore prices is expected to strengthen the activation of the market investment speculation, but with the cobalt Prices continue to rise, the market cautious mood breeding.

From the supply and demand point of view, cobalt fundamentals are still tight supply. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, policy support for high-energy density batteries continue to increase, the current mature solution for the ternary technology path, the formation of support for cobalt, and cobalt production capacity growth is limited. It is reported that 2017 cobalt production capacity mainly from CHEMAF and Wanbao mining two companies. 2018 – 2019 supply increases are mainly concentrated in the two projects of Glencore. It is estimated that the global cobalt supply in 2010 will be 108,504 tons, the global cobalt consumption will be 113324 tons and the gap will be 4820 tons.

Outlook outlook

The second half of the Cobo City, the rise is mostly driven by overseas prices and capital hype, the actual market waiting to see the majority of the expected short-term cobalt city will continue high, the price of 42 million up and down, but simply by market speculation and investment trends to pull, Continue to rise is expected to market will be difficult to follow up.

According to customs statistics, the cumulative imports of o-xylene from January to June in 2017 were 21.48 million tons, compared with 145,900 tons in the same period last year, up 47% year on year.

According to the statistics of the country of origin, the main importing countries in June 2017 were Singapore, Japan, India and Taiwan. Imports are more concentrated this month, of which Singapore accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 42% of imports. Accounting for the second place is 21% of India, accounting for the third place is Taiwan Province (17%), accounting for the fourth is the daily (13%). Other countries or regions accounted for less, basically negligible.

According to the trade statistics, in June 2017 China’s imports of benzene data trade in general trade and bonded warehouses inbound and outbound goods. This month, mainly in the general trade-based, accounting for 59% of total imports, bonded warehouses inbound and outbound goods accounted for second, up to 41%.

According to the statistics of receipt and delivery, in June 2017, China’s o-benzene import data were relatively concentrated in terms of receipt and delivery, mainly in Jiangsu Province, accounting for about 61% of the total imports, mainly because of Jiangsu Province Is the main domestic benzene market transactions area. Which accounted for the largest in Taizhou City, Jiangsu, accounting for 34% of total imports, mainly phthalic anhydride plant production. Accounting for the second is the other Zhangjiagang City, Jiangsu, mainly the main source of trade. Imports accounted for the third place is Shandong Zibo (15%), mainly factory-based production. (7%), Guangdong (7%), Guangdong (7%), Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province (3%), the vast majority of this area is still the main plant consumption.

According to the plan of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the fourth batch of central environmental protection inspectors will inspect the remaining Sichuan, Jilin, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hainan, Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang provinces according to the plan of the third batch of environmental supervision. At present, Shandong, Jilin, Sichuan, Zhejiang and other places of environmental protection department of the deployment of view, the fourth batch of central environmental protection inspection stationed about the end of July to August near.

Since last year, environmental protection storm constantly struck, the methanol market can not be underestimated. China’s methanol is mostly coal-based methanol plant, and the traditional coal chemical industry’s environmental problems are always criticized. Under the influence of environmental monitoring, methanol manufacturers, downstream factories have received a certain degree of implication. To the third round of environmental protection inspection stationed in Shanxi, for example, 4-5 months of local methanol enterprises have a large area shut down, the majority of downstream business downtime, the market supply and demand situation reached its peak. According to statistics, the Shanxi area involved in methanol production capacity of about 5 million tons, and in May Shanxi related to downfall production capacity as much as 2.5 million tons.

Recently, the fourth round of environmental protection on the agenda, all over the provinces, cities, counties, multi-level environmental inspection is also open. The main involved in Shandong, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Hainan, Sichuan, Jilin, Zhejiang and other places. Which is the main concentration of domestic imports in Qinghai, Xinjiang, Hainan, Sichuan, Jilin and other places have a certain methanol production capacity, while the Shandong region is the main consumption area in the north, of which Shandong area involving about 660 million tons of methanol production capacity, Up to now, it is learned that Qinghai Zhonghao 600,000 tons / year of the device plan at the end of July to repair a month, Shandong major manufacturers have no maintenance plan, and Shandong local multi-field supply flow is expected to supply side has no significant impact.

On the other hand, Shandong and other places to the traditional demand-based. At present, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE and other traditional downstream industry, the overall profit was poor, which is a long-term loss of dimethyl ether industry. According to statistics, the current dimethyl ether operating rate of only about 16%, due to long-term loss of enterprises, most enterprises are still in a parking state; formaldehyde operating rate of 29%, Linyi area as a whole is not high, supply side reform and environmental impact Background, formaldehyde multi-small business has been several shuffles. The recent MTBE plant in Shandong by the impact of environmental protection, construction has been a significant decline in the number of enterprises continue to increase, the overall operating rate dropped to 5 percent near.

On the domestic market, since June, the overall impact of the overall domestic commodity atmosphere, methanol futures continued upward, the highest rose to 2618 price, in recent months to the strong situation, driven by the mainland methanol market mentality to the better. The traditional off-season, the supply is better than expected, for the market to provide some help. And for the late August supply situation, in early August, Inner Mongolia, New Austria, Shaanxi Xianyang device restart, Qinghai Ho Ho installation maintenance. And Shandong Mingshui device in mid-July feeding, is still in the linkage test, is expected in early August 60 +35 tons / year device is normal. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng, Shandong Luxi plant 8-9 months also expected to drive, the latter part of the supply side is expected to increase, while the downstream demand growth is weak. Put aside the traditional downstream, the current port area of ​​olefins enterprises in addition to Changzhou Fu De, are normal operation, even if the late Mercedes-Benz Changzhou, the increase in demand is also difficult to increase supply.

Late market conditions, environmental protection and high pressure continued, the traditional downstream demand is expected to poor, olefin demand is also difficult to significantly improve, while the supply continued to increase expectations, weak supply and demand, the market outlook is still cautious bearish view.

Polycarbonate (PC) is a linear polymer molecule containing carbonic acid groups in the molecular chain. It can be divided into aliphatic, aromatic, aliphatic-aromatic and other types. However, it is a kind of aromatic polycarbonate ester. As a high-end petrochemical products, polycarbonate is the fastest growing demand for thermoplastic materials in five engineering plastics. It has excellent performance and has been widely used in the fields of electronic appliances, sheet containers, automobile industry, medical equipment and protective equipment. To aerospace, optical components, optoelectronic information and other emerging areas.

As an important global polycarbonate market, China’s demand for polycarbonate, growth is fast, but low self-sufficiency rate (less than four percent). In recent years, the state has introduced a number of policies to encourage the construction of polycarbonate projects, scientific research units with independent intellectual property rights in the production process of polycarbonate breakthrough, domestic enterprises began to launch, the expansion of polycarbonate project.

Asian chemical consulting that the next few years, China’s polycarbonate industry will usher in the outbreak of production capacity, the external dependence of the status quo or will become history, and enter the stage of intense competition in the market. Therefore, for the domestic polycarbonate production enterprises, for the downstream emerging market application development differentiation, high-end products will be the key to enterprise survival and development.

1. Domestic companies involved in polycarbonate business, breaking the foreign monopoly

China is one of the first countries to start polycarbonate technology development and industrial production, but because of the small size of the device, the technical level is backward, poor product quality and other reasons led to the product can not compete with foreign countries. Since 2005, with the Bayer (now Kesi), Teijin, Mitsubishi and other foreign-funded enterprises began to invest in the construction of polycarbonate plant in China, China’s polycarbonate market was almost a monopoly for foreign-funded enterprises.

In recent years, domestic enterprises polycarbonate project put into operation to break the monopoly of foreign-funded enterprises.

2. China’s polycarbonate demand for high self-sufficiency rate is still low

China is a big producer of polycarbonate. As of the end of 2016, China’s polycarbonate production capacity reached 87 million tons / year, accounting for 17% of the world’s total capacity of polycarbonate (512 million tons / year).

China is the fastest growing demand for polycarbonate countries. Asian chemical consultation data show that in 2016 China’s apparent consumption of polycarbonate reached 1.725 million tons. Although China’s polycarbonate production capacity and output growth in recent years, but the external dependence has been high. In 2016, China’s polycarbonate only 60 million tons, while imports up to 131.9 million tons (net imports of 1.096 million tons), external dependence as high as 63.5%.

3. The state introduced policies to encourage and promote the development of polycarbonate industry

For the current China’s polycarbonate industry is facing a huge gap between supply and demand, imports and external dependence of the high situation, the state has introduced a series of policies to encourage the construction of polycarbonate projects to guide and promote the development of polycarbonate industry.

March 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Industrial Structure Adjustment Guide Catalog (2011) (Amendment)”, the first category of encouragement category includes 60,000 tons / year and above non-phosgene polycarbonate production plant. June 28, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued a “foreign investment industry guidance directory (revised in 2017)”, which encouraged foreign investment in the industry, including 60,000 tons / year and more non-phosgene polycarbonate (PC).

2016 April release of “oil and chemical industry,” thirteen five “Development Guide” in the “thirteen” during the development of China’s petrochemical industry seven tasks, one of the new materials in the field of chemical work is to accelerate the focus Blank products of the industrialization process, the specific tasks include the promotion of PC (polycarbonate), PEEN (polyether ether nitrile) and other engineering plastics and metallocene polyethylene, metallocene polypropylene and other high-end polyolefin resin and phenyl silicone single The development of the body.

October 2016, the Ministry of Industry issued the “petrochemical and chemical industry development plan (2016 – 2020)” will be listed as a representative of high-end polycarbonate products, predicting the next few years the average annual growth rate of polycarbonate 6.7 %, 2020 demand will reach 2.3 million tons. Planning put forward in the development of new chemical materials innovation project to speed up the development of 3D printing with PC-ABS materials such as high temperature and high strength engineering plastics.

In addition, in order to improve the public awareness of polycarbonate / bisphenol A, promote the healthy and sustainable development of China’s polycarbonate industry, actively coordinate and standardize industry behavior, enhance the overall level of the industry, polycarbonate / bisphenol A China Working Group and China Synthetic Resin Supply and Marketing Association Polycarbonate Branch (CNPCA) has been established in December 2015 and June 2017.

4. Innovative polycarbonate technology to help industry development

Polycarbonate industrial production process has developed a solution of phosgene, interfacial polycondensation phosgene, transesterification melt polycondensation (transesterification) and non-phosgene exchange melt polycondensation (non-phosgene). After years of development, China has also started a breakthrough in the field of polycarbonate technology development.

5. More than one million tons of production capacity concentrated release, differentiation and high-end into the development focus

China’s strong market demand, high added value of polycarbonate, and domestic and foreign capital technology, driven by planning, new or expansion of the polycarbonate project launched in China, the total capacity of these projects total more than 200 million tons / Year, of which a number of projects are expected to be put into operation in the next few years, when there will be more than 1 million tons / year of new production capacity concentrated release.