According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of cotton yarn rose sharply in October and then slightly fell back. As of October 31, the reference price of 21S pure cotton ring spinning spot in Shandong Province, China was around 22970 yuan/ton, an increase of about 330 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 1.47%; The reference price for 32S pure cotton ring spinning spot is 24400 yuan/ton, an increase of 525 yuan/ton or 2.20% from the beginning of the month.

Market Overview: After the National Day holiday, downstream fabric factories have concentrated on purchasing, and textile enterprises have increased their orders, resulting in price increases. Some manufacturers have raised their cotton yarn prices by 500-800 yuan/ton, but the peak season support time is relatively short. In the mid to late months, textile enterprises have gradually decreased their orders, and prices have slightly decreased. During the month, the futures price of Zhengzhou cotton significantly weakened, coupled with the weak peak season and limited orders from cotton yarn enterprises. The Zhengzhou cotton main chain also followed suit and weakened, with a monthly drop of 920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.52%.

Startup situation: The textile market orders were basically stable in October, with a significant decrease in startup for small textile enterprises and a stable startup for large enterprises. Overall, there was little change, and most enterprises maintained normal production, while some manufacturers increased the proportion of cotton startups. As of the end of October, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 72.5%, with a month on month increase of 0.1%, basically stable.

Finished product inventory: In early October, cotton yarn shipments were smooth. After mid October, due to poor follow-up of new orders, small and medium-sized yarn factories adjusted their operations to maintain reasonable inventory. As of the end of October, the yarn inventory of major regional textile enterprises was 23.9 days, a month on month decrease of 5.91%.

In terms of raw materials: Currently, cotton is in a concentrated supply season, and commercial inventories have entered an increasing state. Expected cotton prices to fluctuate weakly in November, pay attention to macroeconomic policy adjustments and external market dynamics.

On the demand side: The market for greige fabric is flat, affected by factory inventory and sluggish orders. Even if yarn prices rise, the price of regular greige fabric has not been able to increase. Recently, there has been a decreasing trend in overall orders, with some orders being overturned but all being small orders, mainly consisting of early replenishment.

Market forecast: After the “Silver October”, downstream demand will gradually weaken, and the market trading atmosphere will decrease. It is expected that textile companies will lower their operating rates to reduce inventory. There is currently no positive support for downstream in the short term, and it is expected that cotton yarn prices will be weak next month. We will continue to pay attention to the order situation of fabric factories.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke remained stable this week. As of October 31st, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1478.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to October 28th.

Cost wise: Crude oil prices have fallen this week, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market.

On the supply side: This week, downstream aluminum carbon enterprises in the refining of petroleum coke urgently need to stock up to support the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke is affected by indicators, with mixed price fluctuations and average market trading. Recently, there has been limited availability of low sulfur petroleum coke in the port, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

On the demand side: Currently, the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong regions is relatively stable, while Yunnan region mainly delivers early-stage orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and its support for the petroleum coke market is limited.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies have already sold their orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PET market prices have been running weakly this month. As of October 31st, its average market price has been adjusted to 6302 yuan per ton.

In terms of cost, the recent Middle East conflict has not yet had a substantial impact on crude oil supply. Geopolitical risk premiums have been released, coupled with the return of Libyan crude oil production to the market and a bearish EIA monthly report, international oil prices have plummeted by more than 4%, dragging the polyester raw material market to continuously decline. Cost side support has collapsed, and the spread of pessimistic sentiment in the periphery has suppressed poor market buying. Prices have shown a downward trend in mid to late October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4881 yuan per ton. Crude oil and raw materials continue to decline, and there is currently no support on the PET raw material side, with market prices falling along with costs.

In terms of supply and demand, some factories offer low-priced shipments, while downstream suppliers maintain essential procurement.

Overall, it is expected that the PET market will continue to experience weak adjustments in the short term, and the actual trend will depend on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation, while paying attention to changes in crude oil.

Entering October, the nylon filament market continued its previous sluggish trend. The upstream raw material market continued to decline, with weak cost support and no significant improvement in downstream demand. The shadow of supply and demand imbalance in the filament market has not truly faded. After the insufficient quality of “Golden Nine”, “Silver Ten” also failed to turn the tide, and the peak season of the nylon filament market is difficult to find. Multiple negative impacts have led to a wide decline in nylon filament prices in October.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament will continue to decline sharply in October 2024. As of October 30, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 980 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a monthly decrease of 5.35%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1050 yuan/ton or 6.05% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 18200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1100 yuan/ton or 5.70% from the beginning of the month.

Significant cost reduction

In October, the upstream cost of nylon filament raw material caprolactam continued to be weak, inventory pressure remained high, and the supply side was still under pressure. Spot prices fell sharply, market sentiment was bearish, and the industry chain held a pessimistic attitude, resulting in a continued decline in prices. The settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam in October 2024 was 11860 yuan/ton (liquid premium products accepted for self pickup within six months), a decrease of 1126 yuan/ton from September settlement. As of October 30th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11192 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 4.63%.

Supply demand

In October 2024, the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable, and most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating steadily. Currently, the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in October was not as expected, and the “Silver Ten” did not occur. Demand did not substantially improve, coupled with weak costs. Weaving manufacturers mainly maintained stable production, and terminal demand did not show significant improvement. The order placement situation in the textile market is not optimistic, and daily production is mainly focused on consuming inventory. The willingness to continue hoarding is poor, and demand follow-up is very limited, which is unfavorable for the trend of nylon filament yarn, and market confidence is insufficient.

Future forecast

The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. There is no significant positive news to boost the nylon filament market, coupled with increased supply pressure and increased willingness of enterprises to ship, the market focus may decline. Business analysts predict that in the short term, the nylon filament market will mainly consolidate weakly, and prices will continue to decline narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the price of isooctanol was 9133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.90% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to September 10th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 3.52% to 9466.67 yuan/ton. The economic outlook for October is expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to increase. In addition, after the holiday, the price of isooctanol has risen significantly due to the replenishment of isooctanol. With the end of the replenishment, demand has fallen, and the high price of isooctanol has fallen. The supply and demand of isooctanol are relatively balanced, with expected sales of orders from isooctanol manufacturers. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and consolidating.

Cost support for isooctanol in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the price of propylene was 6833.25 yuan/ton, which was a consolidation after an increase of 4.91% compared to the propylene price of 6513.25 yuan/ton on October 1st. Crude oil prices are consolidating strongly, supported by costs. In October, propylene prices fluctuated and rose, while the cost of isooctanol raw materials increased. The cost support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in October.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices consolidate after rising

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the DOP price was 9188.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st, with an increase of 2.23%; Compared to the DOP price of 9388.75 yuan/ton on October 9th, it has decreased by 2.13%. The economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP, resulting in a rise in DOP prices after the holiday. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the demand for isooctanol by plasticizers has increased; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The demand for octanol rose and then fell, and the price of octanol rose and then fell; DOP manufacturer’s order sales, downstream demand procurement enthusiasm is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP is relatively stable. Plasticizer demand support, octanol demand support still exists, and octanol prices are fluctuating and stabilizing.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, favorable policies continue to emerge and economic expectations are expected to rebound. Influenced by macroeconomic policy sentiment, downstream customers are more proactive in receiving goods. In addition, downstream customers are restocking, resulting in a temporary increase in transaction volume and a rise in octanol prices; As the price of octanol rises to a high level, downstream customers’ resistance to high priced octanol increases, market purchasing enthusiasm decreases, and octanol prices fall back from their high levels; The production load of isooctanol manufacturers remains stable at a high level, and the supply of isooctanol is sufficient. Downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at a high level, and the demand for isooctanol is steadily increasing. In the future, both supply and demand will increase, and the supply and demand of isooctanol market will be relatively balanced. The price of isooctanol will fluctuate and consolidate.