1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 149416 yuan/ton, up 2.05% from the beginning of the week and up 18.96% year-on-year.
Nickel weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 4 times and risen 8 times in the past 12 weeks, with the recent high volatility of nickel prices being the main trend.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, employment and inflation in the United States continue to slow down, but some areas have improved under the boost of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. There are still differences in the Federal Reserve’s future inflation targets for measuring employment, and it tends to be cautious in the short term.
On the supply side, the impact of production cuts is weakened, and refined nickel production is increasing. The overall market spot supply is relatively sufficient. In December, China’s refined nickel production was 31400 tons, an increase of 21.7% compared to the previous month.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with better demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. The demand for stainless steel is generally low, and the clearance of social inventory is slow. The improvement of steel mill profits may increase supply pressure, and spot transactions are still cautious. In terms of nickel sulfate, downstream ternary production decreased slightly after the end of the peak season reserve period, and there were constraints on the production of new capacity in the medium term. Recently, prices have fallen.
In summary, benefiting from the increase in stainless steel production and the expected improvement in demand for new energy battery materials, coupled with potential disruptions in overseas supply, the risk appetite brought about by the rebound of the US stock market has further boosted prices. However, the pressure of high global explicit nickel inventories has not dissipated, restricting the rebound space, and nickel prices are showing a fluctuating upward trend. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate strongly.
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