1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices slightly decreased in October. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 78933.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 76536.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 3.04% and a year-on-year increase of 14.39%.

According to the Business Society’s current chart, most of the copper spot prices in October were higher than futures prices, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The overall outlook for copper prices in the future is optimistic.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fell from a high level in October. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 276775 tons, a decrease of 7.8% from the beginning of the month.

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut to the 4.75% -5% range at its September meeting, and hinted at the possibility of further cuts within the year. This move is seen as a “precautionary” interest rate cut, fully in line with market expectations. Combined with strong consumption data in July and August, market confidence has significantly increased. The expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the loose cycle of the US dollar has begun, which is beneficial for non-ferrous metals in the long run.

Supply side: Copper and scrap copper imports have decreased month on month. The production in September was 1.004 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and a month on month increase of 0.2%. The capacity utilization rate was 81.61%. The cumulative production of electrolytic copper from January to September in 2024 was 8.865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of+32300 tons.

Downstream: Terminal demand: From January to September, the cumulative export volume of copper materials in China was 1.032 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 38.3%. The apparent demand in September was 1.311 million tons, with a month on month increase of 7.3%. The production of air conditioners in September was 18.84 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and the production of refrigerators in September 2024 was 9.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The cumulative construction area of houses from January to September in 2024 was -22.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completion area was -24.4% year-on-year. In September 2024, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 48.7%. The cumulative photovoltaic output from January to September in 24 years was 425.16 million kilowatt hours, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.1%.

Import: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import quantity of cathode copper in September was 323000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 73000 tons and a month on month decrease of -0.6 million tons. The cumulative import quantity of cathode copper from January to September 2024 was 2.648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 161000 tons.

According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in November.

Based on the above situation, the spot TC of copper concentrate has rebounded but is still at a low level, and the contradiction between limited new mining capacity and expansion of smelting capacity is still unfolding. The purchasing sentiment of end customers tends to be cautious, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. Raw material inventory is purchased according to demand, and there is little change in order performance, resulting in overall weakness. The Federal Reserve boldly cut interest rates by 50BP, and the tight balance between copper supply and demand provided strong support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will experience strong fluctuations in November.

This week (10.21-10.25), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first stabilized and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 25th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6023.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6050.00 yuan/ton. Due to weak downstream demand and insufficient raw material support, the ethyl acetate market is consolidating weakly.

This week, the market for ethyl acetate is running weakly. During the week, downstream demand and purchasing sentiment were sluggish, and manufacturers’ shipments were hindered. The bidding price for ethyl acetate from the main factory in Shandong was lowered, while raw material prices continued to fall. The negative impact on costs was transmitted to the end market, and downstream follow-up continued to be weak. Limited orders were placed on site, and manufacturers had a bearish attitude, resulting in a weak downward trend in the ethyl acetate market.

Looking at the future market, the upstream market for ethyl acetate is weak, with a negative impact on costs; On the supply side, next week, Shandong’s power assisted equipment will increase its load, and the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity will improve. The supplier’s news is bearish; In terms of demand, downstream demand follows up, market orders are limited, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the short-term price of ethyl acetate will continue to be weak, and specific attention will be paid to changes in upstream market conditions and downstream follow-up.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 8780 yuan/ton on October 24th.

Analysis: According to data from Shengyi Society, the spot market for styrene today is relatively strong and stable, with an overall trading atmosphere of average and a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Downstream factories are purchasing according to demand. At present, international crude oil futures are declining, and the inventory of raw material pure benzene is expected to increase in the future, affecting market confidence. It is expected that the styrene spot market will experience slight fluctuations within the range in the short term.

Recently (10.12~10.22), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 16110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78% from 16570 yuan/ton on October 12. The price of raw material butadiene continues to fall, and the cost is weakened by the support of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production is still at a low level; The downstream tires shall be adjusted when starting. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of October 22, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 15850-16300 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline slightly, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 22, the price of butadiene was 13162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.05% from 13437 yuan/ton on October 12.

Recently (10.12~10.22), the overall start-up rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants is still at a low of 5.8%. Qilu Petrochemical has shut down for maintenance, and Taiwan Rubber’s Ube plant is planned to restart. The pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is not significant.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is stable, providing essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of October 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises has remained stable at around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region has increased to about 60%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly fall, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will continue to weaken; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a conflict with the high price supply. In general, the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may fluctuate in the short term.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 21, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7287.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% from the price of 7387.50 yuan/ton on October 14; Compared to October 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride at 7200 yuan/ton first increased and then decreased, with a rise of 1.22%. After the holiday, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride remained stable, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride remained stable. This week, the domestic price of ortho phthalic anhydride was quoted at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while the price of industrial naphthalene stabilized. The cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride decreased, and the domestic price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride was quoted at 6900-7100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

This week, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has increased. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers has increased, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, increasing the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 21st, the price of ortho benzene was 7100 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho benzene of 7100 yuan/ton on October 1st. The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stable, and the downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride is weak.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 21st, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9188.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.41% compared to the daily price of plasticizer DOP of 9226.25 yuan/ton on October 14th; Compared to October 1st, the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 2.23%. The replenishment of plasticizer DOP has ended, and the demand for DOP has fallen. This week, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the supply of plasticizers has increased; In addition, with the expectation of economic recovery and increased demand, both supply and demand have increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, while the cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at high loads, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have increased their production and demand for phthalic anhydride has risen. Both supply and demand have increased, but the increase in supply is expected to be greater than the increase in demand, and it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will be weakly consolidated in the future.