According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 1st to October 14th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 13700 yuan/ton to 13437.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.92% during the period. This cycle coincides with the National Day holiday, and the overall butadiene market is weak. Before the holiday, the overall trend of the market was relatively weak, and downstream purchasing intentions were more cautious, resulting in an overall decline in prices. After the holiday, the opening of the market was affected by the strengthening of the downstream synthetic rubber market, and spot market prices slightly increased. However, due to insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, the market’s wait-and-see atmosphere gradually rose, and the fundamentals weakened, causing the market to fall back. At the same time, due to the recent loose market supply, it has dragged down the mentality of holders and led to a wide decline in market prices. As of October 14th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is between 13300-13400 yuan/ton.

On the cost side, the international oil price trend is rising. As of the 9th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $73.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures is $76.58 per barrel. During China’s National Day holiday, international oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had a positive impact on international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. However, concerns about the global economy and demand outlook still exist in the market, coupled with the end of the US oil peak and the increase in US crude oil inventories suppressing the rise in crude oil prices. Overall, the trend of crude oil prices has risen during the cycle. As of October 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.56 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $79.04 per barrel.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is currently 13500 yuan/ton. The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th and has been restarted since October; The 180000 tons/year butadiene plant of Fujian United was shut down for maintenance on October 10th. The 56000 ton butadiene unit of Qilu Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on October 9th, and the downstream butadiene rubber unit was shut down simultaneously. Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and is expected to restart in late October. Recently, there has been little change in the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry, and the overall supply of butadiene is relatively stable.

Demand side: The downstream rubber market is expected to rebound and consolidate after the holiday. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 17066 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.71% from 16616 yuan/ton on October 1st, and a decrease of 0.19% from the high point of 17100 yuan/ton during the cycle. The price of raw material butadiene has fallen from a high level, while the price of styrene has surged and fallen. The cost of styrene butadiene rubber still has some support. Downstream all steel tire starts low level operation; The overall production of styrene butadiene rubber remains low. The supply price of styrene butadiene rubber has been raised after the holiday, and as of October 12th, the mainstream market price of 1502 styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 16900~1720 yuan/ton.

On Friday (October 11th), the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was partially lowered: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1525-1535 US dollars/ton; China CFR reports $1565-1575 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1135-1145/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1100-1110 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak. In terms of demand, it has been heard that there are plans to restart some downstream rubber equipment recently, which may increase the demand for raw materials. The demand support is still acceptable. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will maintain a stable to weak operation in the short term.

This week (10.7-10.12), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 12th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6063.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the beginning of the week price of 6066.67 yuan/ton. The main reason for the weak consolidation of the ethyl acetate market is limited support from downstream demand, resulting in a decline in raw material prices.

The ethyl acetate market has been fluctuating this week. Returning after the holiday, downstream restocking sentiment is positive, with some manufacturers shipping smoothly. Ethyl acetate prices have risen, but raw material prices have fallen, and the negative impact on cost has led to a weakening of downstream chasing sentiment in the end market. Market trading slowed down in the later part of the week, and manufacturers’ quotes were lowered, resulting in a weak downward trend for ethyl acetate.

In the future, the upstream acetic acid market of ethyl acetate is mainly weak, with insufficient cost support; On the supply side, next week Anhui Huayi plant will increase its load, and the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity will be improved; In terms of demand, downstream replenishment sentiment has weakened, market trading is limited, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the short-term price of ethyl acetate will weaken and consolidate, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 30th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9412 yuan/ton. On October 10th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9525 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 113 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the National Day holiday, the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in China has shown a fluctuating upward trend. In the two days before the start of work after the holiday, the stability of raw materials has provided certain support to the market, and downstream procurement is still acceptable. The cyclohexanone market is generally stable with an upward trend. After a brief rise, as the raw material pure benzene market weakened and fell, the cost support for cyclohexanone weakened, and downstream demand was unable to support the stable operation of the market. The supply of cyclohexanone was under pressure, and the cyclohexanone market experienced a downward adjustment, with a reduction of about 100 yuan/ton. On October 10th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region was around 9500-9700 yuan/ton, and the market price of cyclohexanone in Inner Mongolia region was around 9300-9400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental situation: Currently, the overall supply of cyclohexanone market is relatively loose, with an overall performance of oversupply in the market. The downstream solvent and chemical fiber markets are mainly driven by rigid demand procurement, with average overall demand performance. The market is currently showing stable, moderate, and weak operation.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is light, and the “Silver Ten” effect is not obvious. The transmission between overall supply and demand is weak. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mostly operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

In this cycle (20241002-20241009), the cost side and demand side played a game, and the overall price of acrylic acid market showed a trend of oscillation and consolidation during the week. The atmosphere of negotiations in various regions was not lively. Although the overall supply and demand pressure was not high, the fundamentals still maintained a weak trend. On October 9th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

In terms of cost

Recently, the price of propylene in the market has fluctuated upwards, with clear macroeconomic support. The spot market price has fluctuated upwards, but the enthusiasm for downstream market replenishment is limited, and there is a clear wait-and-see attitude among market participants. Currently, it is expected that the propylene market price will adjust narrowly in the short term, but it is still necessary to closely monitor downstream demand follow-up in the later stage.

The closing price of crude oil has risen significantly, and the price of propylene monomer during the holiday has also increased. With the gradual adjustment of enterprises, as of October 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6800.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.41% compared to the beginning of this month (6513.25 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate has decreased. This week, the butyl acrylate market has slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. Downstream manufacturers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are mainly dominated by first-time contract holders. The focus of butyl acrylate quotations is gradually shifting downwards, and the upstream cost support is also limited. In the short term, it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will continue to remain weak, and it is recommended to purchase according to demand.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is maintaining a stable operation, while the upstream acrylic acid market is fluctuating within a range. The listed prices of production enterprises are fluctuating, and the listed prices of acrylic acid manufacturers are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the overall production capacity is at a low level with limited fluctuations. The downstream market’s enthusiasm for receiving goods needs to be improved, and long-term contracts are mainly executed. The short-term market may continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI prices fell in a stepwise manner in September. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 14100 yuan/ton. On September 30th, the TDI price was 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.45% during the month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.63%.

In September, the domestic TDI market operated weakly, with prices falling sharply. The TDI market in September was greatly affected by the demand side, with weak downstream demand. In order to stimulate sales, supplier prices continued to loosen, and the focus of transactions continued to shift downwards. In the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere,

The upstream toluene market has experienced a wide decline, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 5909 yuan/ton as of September 30th, a decrease of 13.61% from the price of 6840 yuan/ton on September 1st. The crude oil market trend is weak this month, and the overall market environment is bearish. Under the downstream wait-and-see mentality, market trading is clearly sluggish. The main refineries have repeatedly lowered their ex factory prices, and local refining enterprises have continuously lowered their quotations. Downstream companies are observing and the purchasing enthusiasm is generally weak.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that throughout September, the TDI market was in a state of strong supply and weak demand. The downstream market performed poorly in terms of demand, maintaining the intention to purchase for essential needs. Although there is a demand for stocking up in the downstream near the holiday, the overall demand is still difficult to increase, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream purchasing follow-up.