Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of June 7, 2024, the reference price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5485 yuan/ton, an increase of about 10 yuan/ton or 0.18% compared to May 31, 2024 (reference price of diethylene glycol was 5475 yuan/ton).

Market situation: This week, the domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated within a certain range. The number of arrivals within the week is around 10000 tons, and there has been a certain increase in inventory at the main port. Some devices have plans to restart, and supply support is weak. Downstream unsaturated resin production is weak and stable, polyester load is declining, overall demand remains weak, industry participation is limited, and there is a lack of favorable news to boost. The market trend is somewhat stagnant, and prices fluctuate within a narrow range. As of June 7th, the closing price in East China was between 5490-5500 yuan/ton, while the closing price in South China was between 5620-5640 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply and demand logic dominates the market, with ships unloading and entering the warehouse during the holiday season. A relatively significant increase in inventory can be seen after the holiday. The sustainability of the follow-up of the main downstream unsaturated resin needs to be verified, and the market’s weak expectations remain unchanged. Business Society’s diethylene glycol analyst believes that in the short term, diethylene glycol will fluctuate and continue to monitor downstream follow-up.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, starting from June, terminal demand has weakened, and the hydrogen peroxide market has declined weakly. On June 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 933 yuan/ton. On June 7th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43%.

Terminal demand turns weak and hydrogen peroxide market declines weakly

Starting from June, the terminal caprolactam market has declined weakly, the paper market has declined, manufacturers have decreased their purchases of hydrogen peroxide water, and the hydrogen peroxide market has declined. The overall quotation is 900-950 yuan/ton. Among them, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region is around 950 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 50 yuan/ton; The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 860 yuan/ton, and the price remains unchanged; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 950 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide is declining, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month. Since the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene has been rising, and after mid month, the price has remained stable. The price continues to rise towards the end of the month. On May 1st, the price was 8672 yuan/ton; On May 31st, the price was 9120 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.16% from the beginning of the month and 39.84% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, news of the East China factory speculating on the Lai plant continued to drive up prices, while Shandong Refinery reported an increase in prices. After the price increase, the market followed up normally, but due to low inventory levels in multiple factories, actual transactions fell short of expectations. The night trading of pure benzene reached around 9380 yuan/ton, and due to the completion of delivery in May, it is expected that there is a high possibility of consolidation in the market today.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene has risen to 9100 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil: Although commercial crude oil inventories in the United States have decreased, the increase in gasoline inventories has raised certain concerns, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 07 fell by $1.32 per barrel, or 1.67%, at 77.91; ICE oil futures contract 07 fell $1.74 per barrel, or 2.08%, at 81.86. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2407, fell 0.4 to 616.9 yuan/barrel, and fell 13.8 to 603.1 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Pure benzene overseas: FOB Korea increased by $12 to $1098/ton, CFR China increased by $12 to $1116/ton, and FOB Southeast Asia increased by $12 to $1081/ton. FOB Rotterdam stabilized at $1195 per ton, FOB USG stabilized at 399 cents per gallon.

The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of May 31, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the price on May 1, 2024 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5495 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.36%.

From the monitoring of data from Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market rose first and then fell in May. The supply and demand fundamentals of diethylene glycol have weakened this month, with the market’s focus initially rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the highest inventory at the main port was 46000 tons, and the number of ships arriving within the month was average. After the inventory decreased, it fluctuated narrowly and did not show any significant increase. However, it did not provide effective support to the market. The main reason is that downstream demand performance was flat, UPR and polyester industry demand was weak, and the market lacked upward momentum. The downstream stocking atmosphere before the May Day holiday caused a slight increase in the market, while the main port inventory increased significantly after the holiday. However, the impact on the market was limited, and demand follow-up remained relatively stable. The supply and demand side slightly improved, and the market operated firmly with price fluctuations rising. In mid month, the market weakened and consolidated after rising, with main port inventories showing a downward trend and little change on the supply side. Downstream UPR production remained stable, while the polyester industry saw a decline in production. The overall performance of the demand side was weak, and the mentality of the industry was average. After a narrow rise in the market, it weakened and consolidated. In the second half of the month, the market center of gravity fluctuated and declined. Some domestic devices had plans to restart, and there was a relatively concentrated import arrival at the end of the month. The supply side had weak expectations, coupled with continued weak downstream demand, the focus of market negotiations gradually weakened.

Inventory and shipment situation: In May, the inventory of diethylene glycol in the main port of East China first increased and then decreased, with the highest point being 46100 tons and the lowest point being 32800 tons. As of May 30, 2024, the inventory of diethylene glycol in East China was 34400 tons, a decrease of 3100 tons from the end of April and a year-on-year increase of 14500 tons; The overall inventory of East and South China was 39600 tons, a decrease of 5100 tons from the end of April and a year-on-year increase of 14200 tons.

In May 2024, the total shipment volume from Zhangjiagang Port in East China was 29500 tons, a decrease of 6200 tons from April, and the daily average shipment volume was about 983 tons. In May, the downstream unsaturated resin and polyester industry saw a decline in production, leading to a decrease in demand for diethylene glycol and a decrease in the number of shipments from ports.

Future forecast: The domestic diethylene glycol market will fluctuate in a weak range in June. In June, domestic maintenance equipment was gradually restarted, and domestic supply was expected to increase. The change in import quantity may not be significant compared to May, and the supply side has limited market support; In terms of demand, the downstream main UPR gradually entered a seasonal off-season in June, and the polyester industry will also experience some production reduction. It may be difficult to provide effective support for the demand for diethylene glycol. Overall, the domestic diethylene glycol market may fluctuate in a weak range in June, and attention should be paid to equipment, demand performance, and changes in market mentality.

Aluminum fluoride prices slightly increased in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11000 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 0.69% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on May 1, which was 10925 yuan/ton. The raw material prices have stabilized at a high level, and the cost of aluminum fluoride was relatively good in May. Aluminum fluoride enterprises started operating steadily, and the market supply was sufficient. Downstream electrolytic aluminum started operating more, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was good. As a result, the price of aluminum fluoride remained stagnant and consolidated in May.

High consolidation of raw material prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the average price of fluorite was 3806.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.57% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3675.00 yuan/ton. As of May 31st, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11620 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of hydrofluoric acid on May 1st, which was 11620 yuan/ton. The resumption of work and production at the fluorite mine in May is still slow, and the supply of fluorite on site continues to be tight. The fluorite market has strong support, and the price trend of fluorite continues to rise. In May, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price remained stable, with little change in on-site equipment operation. Some manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid had accumulated inventory, and there were still equipment shutdowns waiting for the market. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was normal, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid operating at around 60%. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in May first rose and then fell. The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are mainly high, while the cost of aluminum fluoride is well supported, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride is increasing.

Electrolytic aluminum market fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21256.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.49% compared to the aluminum price of 20540.00 yuan/ton on May 1. The rapid increase in alumina prices has provided strong cost support for aluminum ingot prices; The favorable policies at the end of the month have boosted the price of aluminum ingots again, resulting in overall strong aluminum ingot prices and good demand for aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Market forecast: In terms of raw materials, the price of fluorite is rising, the hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable; In terms of demand, the trend of electrolytic aluminum is relatively strong, which supports the demand for aluminum fluoride positively. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride is high, and the aluminum fluoride market has sufficient supply and good demand. It is expected that the aluminum fluoride market will continue to operate strongly in the future, with slight price fluctuations. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.