Recently (12.29-1.5), the acrylonitrile market has been weak with a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the bulk price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9762 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% from last Friday’s 9812 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9600 to 9900 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials has slightly declined, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened; The overall low level stability of the main downstream ABS production; The supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Recently (12.29-1.5), there has been a slight increase in the construction of domestic acrylonitrile units, and the supply side is relatively loose.

Recently (12.29-1.5), the raw material propylene market has been weak and has fallen, with a bearish impact on the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the domestic propylene price was 6638 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from last Friday’s 6868 yuan/ton.

It is understood that since late December, downstream ABS production has remained fluctuating around 7.3%, with only essential support for acrylonitrile; As of early January, the domestic acrylic fiber plant has started operating at a low level, with weak demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; The downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm in the polyacrylamide market is not good, and some orders are restricted in export. The low and stable start of production has weak support for the rigid demand for acrylonitrile. Overall, the current demand for acrylonitrile is weak, and the supply of acrylonitrile is loose, resulting in a weak and stable market trend.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still mainly loose; The demand side support is weak, and the price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.

After the year, the price of acetic anhydride will decrease

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 3rd, the price of acetic anhydride was 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the price of 5912.50 yuan/ton on December 29th before the year, and the acetic anhydride market will decline after the year. After the New Year’s Day holiday, acetic acid enterprises resumed production and increased production. The supply of acetic acid resumed, and acetic anhydride enterprises resumed production. The supply of acetic anhydride enterprises was sufficient, and the price of acetic anhydride decreased after the year.

Enterprise resumption of construction

The load of acetic acid plants in Tianjin has increased, leading to an increase in acetic acid supply. The equipment of acetic anhydride manufacturers in Shandong region has resumed operation, and the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient.

The price of acetic acid has fallen

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of January 3rd, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.08% compared to December 25th, when the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton. The load of acetic acid enterprises in Tianjin has increased, leading to high production rates and high inventory levels among downstream customers. Downstream demand for procurement has increased, while downstream customers are mainly wait-and-see, resulting in a decline in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, after New Year’s Day, the operating load of acetic acid enterprises has increased, the price of acetic acid has decreased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased. After the holiday, the production of acetic anhydride enterprises resumed, and the supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient. In the future, after the holiday, enterprises will resume production of acetic anhydride equipment, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market showed a negative trend in December. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 20533.33 yuan/ton on December 31, with a price increase or decrease of -3.75% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The weakness of PA66 continued within the month, with spot prices consolidating after falling. The spot prices of various brands have all been lowered, and the production line operating rate has remained stable at around 63%. The supply of goods in the interval market is tight, and the inventory position is average. Enterprises are cautious in pricing operations, and the support from suppliers is still sufficient. Downstream textile, electrical, and modification enterprises mainly maintain production by purchasing goods, and at the end of the year, on-site stocking revolves around weak and rigid demand, with weak support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, hexamethylenediamine is supported by price hikes from international large factories, but there is an expectation of easing the tight supply situation in the future, and the price is generally entering a stagnant and downward pressure pattern. Early bearish guidance in the adipic acid market, followed by consolidation after a price drop. At present, there is a rapid recovery, and the support for PA66 is weak first and then repaired. Overall, the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is average. At present, the market supply and demand are not strong, and the overall price of PA66 is weak.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 fell weakly in December. The fluctuation of raw material prices has provided moderate support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. The demand side still relies mainly on maintaining production, and it is expected that the PA66 market will gradually enter the pre holiday market in January, continuing the weak supply-demand pattern, resulting in weak prices and consolidation.

Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of the 31st, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 20600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% compared to the previous week. This week, magnesium ingot prices have been weak and downward, due to the continued weak downstream demand, coupled with some factories resuming work and slightly increasing production, magnesium prices have been suppressed.

In terms of supply and demand

The supply and demand sides continue to engage in a game, with enterprises in the main production areas gradually resuming production and market supply continuously increasing. However, downstream demand has not improved, and domestic market transactions are sluggish. The foreign market has entered traditional holidays, resulting in a decrease in orders. In addition, due to the recent increase in sea freight rates, foreign orders have been reduced.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 6550-6700 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6661.43 yuan/ton. The spot price of ferrosilicon is operating weakly. Currently, there is sufficient inventory of ferrosilicon, and it is difficult to release it in the pre holiday end market. Steel mills still have the willingness to purchase at lower prices, and it is expected that the price of ferrosilicon may fluctuate weakly. The price of orchid charcoal remains stable, with Shenmu orchid charcoal small materials priced at around 1080-1160 yuan/ton. Currently, orchid charcoal enterprises mainly consume inventory while maintaining their own profits, and production often continues at low loads. It is expected that the short-term price will stabilize, and there is some cost support for magnesium plants.

Future Market Forecast

The short-term supply of magnesium in the market is more than expected, and the overall market is not optimistic. However, the current magnesium price factory profits are close to the bottom, and there is limited room for further reduction in magnesium prices. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will remain stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the recent trend of domestic natural rubber spot prices has continued. The spot rubber market in China was around 12880 yuan/ton on December 28th and around 12380 yuan/ton on December 18th, with an increase of 4.04%.

Recently, the overall price of natural rubber has risen, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract rising from around 13600 yuan/ton to around 13900 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 12200-12400 yuan/ton, bulk at around 11000-11200 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 10200-10300 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 10100-10300 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: Thailand is currently in the peak season for rubber cutting, but local areas are experiencing floods and limited raw material output; Some production areas in Vietnam have entered a period of reduced production, and factories are gradually entering a reserve period; Domestic Hainan production areas have gradually entered the hydrocarbon cutting period; The Yunnan production area has entered a period of complete cessation of harvesting. Before the new year, the processing plant’s enthusiasm for rubber collection and production increased, supporting the natural rubber market. As of December 24th, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 664600 tons, a decrease of 4000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 0.59% month on month. Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and the rate of total inventory reduction has slowed down.

Demand side: Recently, there has been a slight adjustment in the production of all steel tires, with weak demand for rubber. It is understood that as of late December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 5.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Import and export: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 685000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in November, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. From January to November, China imported a total of 7.229 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The export volume of rubber tires from China in November was 760000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%; The export amount was 13416.33 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires from China was 8.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%; The export amount was 142716.27 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%.

Market forecast: In the near future, domestic and foreign raw material output will be limited, and Yunnan region will enter a comprehensive shutdown period. Some production areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and Hainan will enter a shutdown period due to weather and other reasons; Half steel tire enterprises have sufficient foreign trade orders, high operating rates, and limited support for the rubber market; Recently, some companies have been stocking up before the holiday, and coupled with the increasing sentiment of buying up instead of falling downstream, it is expected that the natural rubber spot market will maintain a high consolidation trend in the near future.