1、 Price trend
According to this week’s news agency, benzene prices fell. On December 13, the price of pure benzene was 4280-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4556 yuan / ton); on Sunday (December 20), the price of pure benzene was 4170-4600 yuan / ton (average price was 4486 yuan / ton), down 70 yuan / ton or 1.54% compared with last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
Due to inventory pressure and the weakness of styrene, the price of pure benzene fell this week. However, the overall positive news of benzene and styrene in the lower end of the week weakened. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained stable at 4600 yuan / ton, which was higher than the local refining price. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port decreased by about 11000 tons compared with last week.
In terms of external market, the shortage of pure benzene in Europe and the United States has driven the price of pure benzene in Asia to continue to rise, with a wide gap between domestic and foreign prices, which has a good support for the domestic market. On Friday (December 18), South Korea imported 650.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 19.34 US dollars / ton, or 3.06% compared with December 11; and that of East China was 633.5 US dollars / ton, up 5.5 US dollars / ton, or 0.88% higher than December 11.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.
Downstream: styrene: domestic mainstream styrene prices fell first and then rose this week, but still fell 8.93% compared with last Friday. The downstream demand of styrene is weak, and the mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, with insufficient buying gas. On Friday (December 18), the price of sample enterprises was 6916.67 yuan / ton, which was 633.33 yuan / ton, or 8.39% lower than last Friday, and the price was 6.95% lower than that of the same period last year.
Aniline: aniline Market is relatively quiet this week, digest the increase of last week. At present, the supply and demand of aniline is stable, Huatai and Jinling are running with reduced load. In the later stage, the maintenance plan and operation load of the unit are concerned. On December 20, the price of aniline in Shandong was about 7700 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 7900-8000 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, China’s economic recovery is good, and the news of vaccine and US economic stimulus plan is favorable, supporting the market. It is expected that the oil price will be stronger next week. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the vaccine and the new progress of the US economic stimulus plan, as well as the impact of the gradual increase of OPEC + production.
Downstream: pay attention to the change of demand side for plant restart, and pay attention to the arrival of imported ships in the later stage. In December, new production capacity is expected to enter the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene may increase. The listed price of Sinopec is higher than that of local refining, and the market is waiting for its price guidance. Next week, near the end of the month, focus on the next month’s contract price negotiations. It is expected that benzene will recover slightly next week.
| Thiourea |