1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of caustic soda market at the beginning of the year was 632 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of caustic soda market was 485 yuan / ton, with a drop of 57.23%.
2020 is not an easy year for caustic soda, and the price has fallen to the bottom. As can be seen from the figure above, caustic soda has shown a downward trend in the whole year. Only in February, may, June and October, the price has increased in four months. And the price of the whole year is lower than that of 2019 and 2018, so the price trend of caustic soda is difficult.
2、 Market analysis
In January, the price of caustic soda was mainly weak and stable. The overall performance of domestic caustic soda market is calm, the demand side continues to be weak, there is no good support for the caustic soda market, the supply expectation is reduced, the market operators mainly wait and see, and the market trading atmosphere is general. Lack of demand support, domestic caustic soda market continued to run low before the Spring Festival.
In February, due to the impact of the epidemic situation in the lower reaches, the enterprises did not start enough, and the demand for caustic soda was limited. Logistics has not fully recovered, and the enterprise has difficulties in shipping. The overall demand for caustic soda is not much. The overall operation of the domestic market is mainly flat.
3. In April, the domestic caustic soda market as a whole did not change much. The downstream printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, chemical industry and other industries of caustic soda were still in normal operation, and the market demand changed generally. Chlor alkali enterprises’ shipment is flat, and the transportation is better than before, but at present, many places are in a wait-and-see mentality, the downstream demand is general, and the market transaction is flat.
5. In June, with the warming weather, about 76% of domestic alumina production started, and the downstream industries such as papermaking, printing and dyeing still need to purchase. Caustic soda plant maintenance good and spot is not much, continue to support the market. On the macro level, tank car accidents may lead to severe investigations on the production and transportation of hazardous chemicals in China, and small and medium-sized and micro downstream enterprises may start or be affected.
7. In August and September, the domestic price of liquid caustic soda was basically stable, with strong awareness of price support in the upstream and weak demand in the downstream. The change of terminal demand is limited. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province, the main production area, fell to a low level, the overall supply exceeded demand.. The weakening of downstream demand leads to the weakening of prices. The overall supply of caustic soda exceeds the demand, and there is no sign of improvement in demand. On the whole, the downstream demand can not drive the price of caustic soda better.
October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side has a certain support. October is also the peak period of maintenance, and Jinling in Shandong Province stopped 100000 tons unexpectedly. During the National Day holiday, due to the blocking of liquid chlorine highway transportation, some chlor alkali enterprises’ commodity chlorine appeared unsalable, and the starting load of individual chlor alkali enterprises decreased. Support some manufacturers to raise the price of caustic soda.
11. In December, the downstream purchase demand of caustic soda is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The factory price of caustic soda is stable as a whole, the cost changes little, and the operation is mainly stable and small. The downstream purchase demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda.
The price of caustic soda in 2020 will be lower than that in 2018 and 2019. Since February 2019, the operation rate of downstream alumina industry, which is the largest producer of caustic soda, has been in a low state. The weak profit will hit the enthusiasm of alumina enterprises to start operation, and the demand for caustic soda will continue to be low. The paper industry is booming, but with the application of pulp alkali recovery technology and the increase of the proportion of wood pulp, the alkali consumption of the industry has decreased, and the demand increment is not obvious. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the cost side changes little. However, the price of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda has been at a low level since 2015. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, and the price of caustic soda may continue to be under pressure, depending on the downstream market demand.
| Thiourea |