1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on January 31, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 7175 yuan / ton, down 1.98% compared with 7320 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 5.13% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
In January, the PVC market was depressed first and then rose, with a watershed in the middle of the month and a decrease of about 2% in the whole month. The price fluctuated little. In January, the off-season demand is expected to weaken, especially the poor transportation in some parts of the north, as well as the early shutdown of some downstream enterprises, resulting in the decline of the operating rate and the weakening of the support for the demand for PVC. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen, the number of maintenance enterprises is small, the market supply is sufficient, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The enterprises are looking for good prices and good delivery, with a decrease of 4.88% in the first half of the month. The turning point in the second half of the month was mainly due to the rebound of futures prices, the repeated public health incidents in some areas, the poor transportation in some areas, the limited arrival resources, and the increase in exports. There was a certain reserve demand in the downstream years ago, which led to the decline of inventory and the rise of PVC prices. Near the end of the month, the market recovered calm and the trend was relatively strong.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2020, the domestic PVC production was 1.914 million tons, up 6.0% compared with the same period last year; in 2020, the cumulative domestic PVC production was 20.74 million tons, up 3.3% compared with the same period last year
In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 6900-7400 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 7300-7400 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 7070-7130 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 7270-7400 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 7300-7450 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 7330-7550 yuan / ton.
In terms of futures, the main PVC futures contract V 2105 on the first day reduced its position by a large amount, and the futures price rose and fell, closing at 7280 yuan on the same day, which was – 135 yuan compared with the previous trading day; the trading volume was 364483, and the position was 352155, – 23490; the basis was 70.
Regional varieties: February 2, 2007
Changzhou PVC calcium carbide process: 7300-7450 yuan / ton
Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 7330-7550 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide process: 7070-7130 yuan / ton
Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process: RMB 7270-7400 / T
Upstream crude oil. On February 1, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $53.55/barrel, up US $1.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price at 56.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.31 U.S. dollars. WTI and Brent rose by more than 2% on Monday, mainly due to the decline of US crude oil stocks and the rise of fuel demand caused by snowstorms in the northeast of the United States, which helped oil prices.
In January, the external market of ethylene showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At present, crude oil: US crude oil inventory is declining, but the market’s continued concern about the epidemic has limited oil demand, international oil prices fluctuate slightly, and cost support is general. Therefore, data analysts from business news agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the next few days.
In January, the price of calcium carbide dropped sharply, reaching 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 20.74% from 3890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 9.86% year on year. On February 2, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, the price of raw material blue carbon was high, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide is normal, the output of calcium carbide rises, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that calcium carbide will fluctuate slightly in the future.
3、 Future forecast
Business community PVC analysts believe that in January, PVC first suppressed and then rose, and rebounded in the second half of the month. However, in the off-season of demand, the rise is difficult to last. At present, the market is calm, the year is approaching, the downstream industry is closed for holidays, the support of demand side continues to decline, the trading atmosphere turns light, and the market negotiation price is obviously stable, but the price of PVC is expected to be stable in the short term, and there is a risk of downward trend in the future.
| Thiourea |