1、 Price trend
According to the data of business club’s block list, after the Spring Festival, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market began to soar, and the price continued to rise. The price was 7060 yuan / ton on February 14, 7196 yuan / ton on February 17 and 7761 yuan / ton on February 20, with an increase of 9.94% on the 7th and 7.85% on the 4th.
2、 Analysis and comment
According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January. After a slight rebound at the end of the month, it began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton. Later, it entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of the first half of the year was stable, while the second half (from February 15) showed a steady upward trend. The 18th was the first day of official work. Today, the price rose by about 200 yuan / ton every day, and 60 yuan / ton after the festival The current market turnover is 7700 ~ 7950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price has risen to 7700 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is less, the shipment situation is more popular. Due to extreme weather in the United States, the units are frequently overhauled, and the restart time is uncertain, resulting in a sharp decrease in propylene production and soaring prices; due to the earthquake in Japan, the units are also affected, resulting in a decrease in propylene production capacity.
On February 19, crude oil prices fell slightly, but there is still a certain cost support capacity.
Recently, the price of PP also rose continuously, with a 4-day rise of 7.50%. The futures market is also ideal, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.
Recently, the price of acrylic acid also went up, with a 3-day increase of 2.87%, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.
Recently, the market of propylene oxide rose steadily, with a 4-day increase of 3.77%, which also had a slight positive effect on propylene.
Recently, epichlorohydrin market rose slightly, with a 4-day increase of 1.53%, which has little impact on propylene.
Recently, the domestic n-butanol price rose rapidly, with an increase of 26.16% on the fourth day, which has a significant positive effect on the propylene market.
In recent days, the trend of octanol is similar to that of n-butanol, and it is also on the rise by a large margin, with an increase of 36.36% on the fourth day, which also has a significant positive impact on propylene.
Recently, the price of isopropanol rose slightly, with a rise of 3.28% on the 4th, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.
Phenol Market in East China also rose recently, with a 4-day increase of 9.87%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.
Recently, the acetone market in East China has been stable, and the market price has risen slightly, which has little impact on propylene.
3、 Future forecast
The propylene analyst of Shangshe chemical branch believes that: in general, the international production has decreased significantly, and the short-term recovery capacity of the plant is limited, the domestic inventory is small, the crude oil price still has a supporting effect, the downstream operating rate is ideal, the demand is strong, and the price rises obviously, so it is expected that the propylene market will rise again after a short consolidation at a high level in the near future.
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