Price trend:
According to the data of business club’s block list, the ABS market had a correction in early March, and the spot prices of various brands returned to calm. As of March 11, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was around 18100 yuan / ton, a 3.21% decrease compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a 4.93% increase compared with the same period last month.
Factor analysis:
ABS upstream styrene, the current market after the rapid rise of the domestic market in February, into early March, the chemical sector showed a trend of first up and then down. During the Spring Festival, international crude oil prices continued to be positive, and styrene cost support was strong. In the early stage, the main factors for the rise are macro inflation, upstream pull caused by crude oil surge, supply tension caused by external emergencies, and the expected increase of domestic demand. From the perspective of business community, the chemical industry index will be rationally adjusted for a period of time, and the price of raw materials will gradually find a balance under the influence of currency and supply and demand.
At the beginning of March, the trend of domestic butadiene market was relatively positive, and it was stable as a whole in the first ten days. During the Spring Festival last month, international crude oil prices continued to rise, saving the butadiene market which started at a low level in January 2021. Downstream rubber industry demand is strong, coupled with the merchants reluctant to sell, butadiene market push up atmosphere is obvious. In early March, we heard that the export of domestic products increased, which strengthened market confidence. However, at present, the supply of goods is getting warmer and more abundant than in the previous period. It is expected that the short-term market will perform high and firm.
The current ABS cost side market is different, ABS spot price began to fall in early March. At present, the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises is almost full load, and the supply side tends to be sufficient. In the early stage, the supply of crude oil and chemical bulk products was tightened, and the disk was strong outside and weak inside. At present, the positive effect is suspected to be exhausted. At present, the spot price of ABS is relatively high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, especially the resistance to high price goods is heavy. I heard that the inventory of the society has increased, and the delivery operation of the merchants has also increased.
Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: in early March, ABS market high callback, all brands offer down. The trend of cost is different, and the support for ABS cost is weakened. At present, the spot supply is getting warmer, the demand side is in a relatively off-season, there is no seasonal demand blessing, and the downstream factories maintain just need to purchase. The resistance of high price source of goods is large, but the cost pressure of ABS is still in, and it is expected that the domestic ABS price will slightly callback.
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