Price trend:
As of April 29, 2021, the domestic reference price of acrylonitrile remained at 14766.67 yuan / ton, down 2.21% compared with the price of the previous working day, unchanged compared with the beginning of the week, and down 9.78% compared with March 29.
2、 Market analysis
From mid February 2021, the price of acrylonitrile continued to rise due to the rising cost of raw materials and the imbalance between supply and demand, and rose to 16500 yuan / ton on March 10, which was the highest price in the past five years. After March, the price of acrylonitrile began to fall in the last ten days due to the impact of the price of upstream raw materials, and the market reference price was reduced to about 16300 yuan / ton. In April, the reference price of acrylonitrile market continued to fall. Last week, the reference price of acrylonitrile continued to fall slightly. However, the offer of middlemen remained firm and kept a wait-and-see attitude. At the beginning of this week, the reference price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market dropped to 14500 yuan / ton and remained stable until the end of April; Upstream manufacturers have no notification of changes in equipment maintenance capacity, middlemen’s quotations are stable, domestic market fundamentals have no significant changes, and trading is normal. In addition, this week will usher in the May Day holiday, downstream users are willing to stock up, which may slightly improve the trading atmosphere. However, middlemen are more cautious about the price of acrylonitrile, the price is not strong enough, and the market is bearish, so the trading volume is still limited.
upper reaches:
According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly and began to stabilize on the 23rd. On April 20, the external price of propylene in the United States dropped significantly again. In recent days, the price of propylene in Asia increased slightly, which had a certain impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.
Downstream:
According to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of NBR was 21166 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 1.85% from the previous day and 8.59% from the beginning of April. The demand for raw materials is weak, and it is expected that NBR will continue to be weak in the future. The commodity index of polyacrylamide on April 28 was 94.20, 12.07% lower than the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and 13.64% higher than the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now). In the short term, the market is stable, while in the medium and long term, it still depends on the pull of demand.
3、 Future forecast:
At present, the raw material propylene is weak, the downstream NBR is slightly lower, the operating rate is low, the performance is general, and there is resistance to the price of acrylonitrile; Polyacrylamide market fluctuated slightly, inventory was relatively sufficient at the end of the month, and demand was tepid. Acrylonitrile analysts of business news agency believe that the supply and demand side support of acrylonitrile market is insufficient in the future, and the price rising power is weak. It is expected that the market will be consolidated in the short term, the market amplitude is small, and the direction is not easy to grasp. We need to be cautious, and the wait-and-see sentiment will increase. We should pay more attention to the market information guidance for the specific trend.
| Thiourea |