Price trend:
According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market rose and fell in May, and most brands of products fell. As of June 1, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 18050 yuan / ton, which was 1.77% lower than the average price in early May and 43.83% higher than that in the same period of last year.
Factor analysis:
As for raw material styrene, the domestic Styrene Market in the first half of May fluctuated upward driven by cost support and tight spot supply, and the spot remained strong. After twists and turns in the international crude oil market, the high level fell in the second half of the month, pure benzene and ethylene fell, and the cost support weakened immediately. With the end of styrene paper delivery in May, the market is expected to buy gas down. Although the domestic styrene operation rate rose and the styrene supply increased, the wharf inventory was low, the wharf accumulation was slow, and the spot supply was tight. Recently, the output of new devices such as Huatai Shengfu and SINOCHEM Hongrun has been released and the arrival of imported goods. The tight spot situation will be eased in the later stage, and the downstream demand will be temporarily stable. It is expected that the styrene market will still be in the shock consolidation stage after a rapid rise and fall in the short term.
For upstream butadiene, the domestic butadiene market was mainly consolidated in the first half of May. Business intention to stabilize the price offer, the downstream inquiry weak, there are some low price transaction in the market, dragging the market. In the second half of the month, the positive external market was gradually released, driving up the spot price in northern China. But at the end of the month, some production lines were restarted, putting pressure on domestic supply. In addition, the lower synthetic rubber industry is weak, resulting in high price source transaction resistance still exists. Short term domestic butadiene demand will continue, just need to follow up, business community butadiene analysts are expected to continue to collate the market.
In May, the price of ABS cost side was mixed, and the overall support for ABS cost side was weakened. In the near future, the market is dominated by bad external market, which has a drag on the domestic spot price. The positive effect of centralized maintenance on the supply side is gradually exhausted. At present, ABS is in the off-season of traditional consumption, and it is difficult to open the situation of lack of demand. Downstream enterprises just need to reduce, buy up do not buy down mentality, weaken trading momentum. At present, there are still some devices in the industry to be overhauled, which may affect the spot price in some areas, but the market as a whole is short, so the expected response of the supply side may not be obvious.
Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: ABS spot market overall fell in May, the price position fell below the price level in early May. The trend of raw materials is mixed. Generally speaking, it is bad for ABS cost side. At present, the ABS industry is in the off-season, and the resistance of on-site shipment is increasing. Superimposed on the external market is also bad led, it is expected that the recent ABS spot market may continue to be short.
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