1、 Price data
As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7630.75 yuan / ton, up 3.88% from 7345.75 yuan / ton on January 1. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan / ton.
As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7602.50 yuan / ton, up 6.18% from 7602.50 yuan / ton on January 1. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan / ton.
On January 16, the naphtha commodity index was 94.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.86% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.96% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Recently, the price of refined naphtha has risen, the trading is light, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the manufacturers actively push up the downstream goods preparation before the festival.
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Upstream: the international crude oil price rises. Although the epidemic situation in Europe and America is still severe, the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants, and the oil price trend rises; In addition, the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, the relatively conservative policy was in line with market expectations, and the oil price was supported. Some geopolitical factors such as the interruption of supply in Libya, the unrest in Kazakhstan and some political factors affect the supply expectation, and the international oil price has received some support.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene rose continuously. On January 1, the price was 5580.40 yuan / ton, and on January 16, the price was 5930.20 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.27%. The price of mixed xylene rose continuously. On January 1, the price was 5860.00 yuan / ton, and on January 16, the price was 6290.00 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 7.34%. The market price of p-xylene increased by 6700.00 yuan / ton on January 1 and 6900.00 yuan / ton on January 16, with a price increase of 2.99%.
3、 Future forecast
Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil, the cost support of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the downstream goods are prepared before the festival. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may rise slightly.
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