According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on July 15 was 96.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.66% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 16.15% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)
Commodity market: according to the data monitoring of business agency, this week (July 11-16), the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in China is about 15757.14 yuan / ton. The production of the main manufacturer is normal, and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.
Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market fell weakly this week. As of July 15, the price of acrylonitrile was 10580 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from 10700 yuan / ton last Friday. The supply side of domestic acrylonitrile industry is still in a loose state, the market transaction is deadlocked, and traders sell inventory at a low price. At present, the cost pressure of supply area restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.
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Raw acrylic acid: on July 15, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 10666.67 yuan / ton, down 5.88% from Monday’s price and 24.35% from June 15. Recently, the raw material propylene market is mainly consolidated, the cost side support is general, and the acrylic acid operating rate is lower than that in the early stage, but the market support is limited, mainly because the demand side performance is light, the transaction is just needed, the downstream procurement is cautious and low-cost procurement is mainly, the market mentality is insufficient, and the acrylic acid market is under pressure. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream trends.
Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG price continued to rise this week. The average domestic LNG price was 5766 yuan / ton on July 11 and 5798 yuan / ton on July 15. Domestic LNG prices rose 0.55% this week. Recently, the number of overhaul liquid plants has increased, and the trend of LNG market is stable and positive. However, the market demand is weak, waiting for the release of terminal demand. It is expected that in the short term, the price of liquefied natural gas will remain stable and the consolidation operation will prevail.
Aftermarket forecast: this week, the cost of raw materials continued to decline, cost support weakened, the market spot inventory was sufficient, the market mentality was bearish, and the transaction was general. It is expected that the aftermarket polyacrylamide market will not change much, and there is a great possibility of stability and weakness.
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