1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, on August 1, the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 12500 yuan / ton, and on August 31, the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11716 yuan / ton. This month, the domestic caprolactam price fell by 6.27%.
2、 Market analysis
Domestic caprolactam prices fell this month. In the first half of August, the market price of caprolactam fell continuously. The price of raw material pure benzene is lowered, and the cost of caprolactam is weak. The market demand is poor, and a small amount of downstream purchase is required. The on-site supply is fair, the trading volume is small, and the market is still depressed. Most of the caprolactam enterprises suffered losses and the operating rate decreased. In the second half of August, the market price of caprolactam increased slightly. The downstream PA6 market improved and the purchase of raw materials increased. The supply and demand of caprolactam market is balanced, and the manufacturer sells it at a high price. As of August 31, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12400 yuan / ton, and the acceptance was self drawn. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 12400 yuan / ton, and the 450000 tons / year unit is normally started, and the acceptance is self withdrawn.
This month, the raw material pure benzene market was covered with bad news, and the price continued to fall. In terms of cost, crude oil fluctuated widely this month, and the trend of cost is unstable, which is difficult to support the price of pure benzene. In terms of supply, since the middle of this month, many pure benzene plants have been restarted one after another, and the domestic supply has increased significantly. After the superposition, it is expected that a large amount of pure benzene production capacity will be put into production, and the market mentality will be suppressed. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was low at the beginning of this month, and there was still speculation in the domestic market and the port inventory was tight. However, with the closing of the Asian American arbitrage window, the Asian pure benzene flows to China, the import cargo of pure benzene increases, the port inventory accumulates, and the mentality of supporting prices weakens. Demand side: due to the high price of pure benzene and the average profit level of the downstream, the production of most commodities in the downstream is at a loss, the economic shutdown and load reduction devices are increased, and the demand for pure benzene is weakened. This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered six times. As of August 30, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7600 yuan / ton.
In this month, the domestic market of downstream PA6 gradually declined, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 30, the mainstream offer price of China viscosity 2.75-2.85 by the sample enterprises was about 13766.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 8.02% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. Downstream enterprises just need to take goods to maintain production, and the center of gravity of PA6 offer falls in a three-step manner. It is expected that the next traditional demand season will pull demand, and PA6 market may rise.
3、 Future forecast
According to the caprolactam analyst of business society, the supply and demand of caprolactam in the market are balanced at present, and the enterprise sells at a high price. Downstream caprolactam just needs to be purchased, and the terminal demand is still to be released. The raw material market fluctuates, and the industry is still watching carefully. It is expected that the caprolactam market price will be slightly adjusted and operated in the short term.
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