June aluminum price trend forecast

Aluminum prices rebound in May
Aluminum prices rebounded in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20396.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% from the market average price of 20073.33 yuan/ton on May 1.
Factors influencing the aluminum price trend in June
Supply side: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in June is expected to increase by about 200000 tons, and the effective operating capacity is expected to climb to over 44 million tons, with a slight increase in production. In terms of overseas imports, the import volume is expected to remain relatively high, and the overall supply is showing an increasing trend, which will put some pressure on aluminum prices.
On the demand side: June is the off-season for traditional consumption, and the demand for traditional end markets such as building profiles and home appliances may be weak. However, the new energy vehicle market maintains high-speed growth, which will continue to drive aluminum demand. However, the photovoltaic market may experience a significant decline in production after the rush to install is over. In terms of exports, there is a 90 day export window period after the adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States, and there is still a rush to export before the end of the window period, which provides some support for aluminum prices.
On the cost side: The spot price of alumina lacks momentum for further increase, and there is even a possibility of a downward trend. The cost center of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease, weakening its support for aluminum prices. The price of pre baked anodes for auxiliary materials may continue to decline in June.

Macroscopic factors: there is still uncertainty in international trade relations, the issue of US treasury bond debt has caused concern, domestic macro policies are waiting to be implemented, and macro disturbances make market sentiment more cautious
June aluminum price trend forecast
Overall, it is predicted that aluminum prices will show a weak and volatile trend in June 2025.