price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was mainly consolidating in the first half of August, with most spot prices of certain brands showing narrow fluctuations. As of August 13th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14316.67 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.12% compared to early August.
cause analysis
Supply side: In the first half of August, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased. The on-site supply is abundant, with high inventory levels remaining stagnant, and the pattern of ample PC supply remains unchanged. After the addition, there is a shortage of maintenance news in the market, and the pressure on shipments has not decreased. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A dominated the horizontal trend in the first half of August. The changes in upstream acetone and phenol are relatively small, which limits the guidance for bisphenol A. On the other hand, there is a trend of relaxed supply of bisphenol A, while weak demand remains unchanged, and the market lacks upward momentum. Overall, the bisphenol A market is stable with some weakness, and its support for PC costs is average.
On the demand side: Currently, we are still in the traditional off-season period for PC, with low downstream factory loads and weak stock availability, mainly due to rigid demand. We have not seen any early warehouse construction operations. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the supply-demand contradiction within the range has not improved. At present, terminal enterprises are cautious in purchasing new orders and are resistant to high priced goods. The financial pressure on merchants has increased, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts on actual orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market fluctuated and consolidated in the first half of August. The upstream bisphenol A market is stable with some weakness, providing average support for PC cost values. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased, but the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The off-season characteristics of downstream demand remain unchanged, and market benefits are difficult to materialize. Industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. Although the current PC price is at a historical low, the market momentum is unlikely to improve in the short term, and it is expected that the PC market will continue to search for a bottom in the future.
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