price trend
According to the bulk ranking data, the domestic PC market rose from a low level in mid January, and most spot prices of various brands increased. As of January 20th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 13133.33 yuan/ton, with a price level of -0.51% up or down from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: Since January, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has remained stable and slightly increased. In the early stage, multiple production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical were rotated for maintenance, and now they are about to return. The overall average operating rate of the industry has recovered to over 81%, with a weekly average output of over 65000 tons. Due to the previous digestion of social inventory, the pressure on the aggregation plant production line has temporarily eased, and the on-site supply tends to be tight and balanced. Overall, the PC supply side has limited changes in its support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, the domestic bisphenol A market saw an upward trend in mid January. At the beginning of the month, supply contracted and demand margins improved. The current rise in phenol acetone prices is significant, with strengthened cost support. Under the combination of multiple favorable factors, market prices have steadily risen, and traders have a strong sentiment of supporting prices. The trading atmosphere in the market has significantly rebounded. Improved support for PC costs.
On the demand side: Although the improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, the load position of PC downstream factories is still not ideal. However, due to the concentration of contract orders entering delivery and local supply tightening, there is a temporary supply-demand balance in the market. The mentality of merchants has strengthened, and there has been an increase in bullish operations. But after the price increase, buyers are cautious in stocking up and have a weak willingness to build warehouses before the holiday. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In mid January, the domestic PC market rose at a low level. The overall trend of upstream bisphenol A remains positive, and the cost value can still provide support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is stable with small fluctuations, and there is limited information on future maintenance. The atmosphere of on-site negotiations is high, and it is expected that there may be a possibility of consolidation in the PC market in the short term.
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