1、 Market Review
In the past week (August 19-25), domestic PA6 spot prices have continued their upward trend, with prices stabilizing at 12966.67 yuan/ton in the early stages. Prices across all cycles of the market are in the high range, and warning signals of over inflation continue to emerge; On August 25th, the price was raised by 1.54% again, and the spot price rose to 13166.67 yuan/ton, reaching a mid to high level this year. The rebound market that started from the low point in July continues to advance.
1. Cost analysis
The upstream raw material caprolactam market is operating strongly, with factory settlement prices steadily rising, and slicing production costs receiving sustained support. The fluctuation of upstream chemical raw materials for pure benzene has led to an increase in the bottom of costs, which has become an important driving factor for the sustained rise in PA6 prices this week. At present, there is no significant looseness in the raw material side, and the cost is still playing a bottoming role in the face of the slicing market. The short-term downward cost pressure is limited.
2. Supply and demand analysis
In terms of supply, the operating load of the domestic PA6 industry remains high, and the overall market supply of goods is sufficient. After some early maintenance equipment resumes production, the market increment has been released to some extent; However, due to the high price of caprolactam in the upstream and the pressure of loss in the slicing factory, the willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, and they actively push up spot prices.
On the demand side, the downstream nylon spinning and modified injection molding industries are gradually recovering, and with the expectation of the “Golden September”, downstream enterprises are gradually starting to replenish their inventory. The increase in procurement volume has driven the improvement of spot transactions and supported the upward trend of chip prices. However, after a round of continuous replenishment, the downstream mentality of chasing price increases has become cautious, and the resistance to high price transactions has gradually increased.
2、 Short term future forecast
The risk of short-term PA6 market fluctuations and high-level adjustments has increased. The current 10-90 day multi cycle indicators are all at high levels, with signals of 20 day and 30 day super price increases appearing. The ability to continue to move rapidly in the short term is insufficient; The cost support is still stable, coupled with the expected demand for Jinjiu, and there is limited room for a significant correction in the market. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate within the range of 12900-13400 yuan/ton, with a slower upward trend and entering a high-level digestion stage. The subsequent trend will mainly follow the price of caprolactam and the actual production and landing situation downstream.
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