This week, the domestic PX market price trend has risen, with an average price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 9000 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 5.88% and a year-on-year increase of 25%.
The rise in crude oil prices provides significant cost support
In early September, the US Iran conflict escalated in a new round, and market pricing was expected to “hit the upgrade”, leading to a continued strong rise in oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz is a core channel for global energy transportation, and its disturbance directly triggers panic in the aromatics market, leading to an increase in the crude oil market and a rise in the PX market.
Supply side: inventory depletion, tight spot availability
Recently, the scope of load reduction for refineries in Asia has expanded, and multiple sets of equipment in China have undergone centralized maintenance in the early stage, resulting in a decline in PX supply in the Asian region; Domestic PX production has rebounded to about 74%, but inventory continues to deplete and the tight spot market remains unchanged, causing holders to raise prices and hesitate to sell.
Demand side: PTA restart expected+polyester replenishment
PTA production has rebounded to about 63.8%, with plans to restart/increase the burden of multiple units in the context of low inventory and high profits, resulting in marginal improvement in PX demand expectations; The downstream demand for polyester chains is still acceptable, and spot inventory replenishment has increased, forming a strong pattern of “double increase in supply and demand, stronger demand increment”, and the PX market trend is rising.
Market forecast: In the short term, the PX market is mainly characterized by strong fluctuations, intensified volatility, and easy to rise but difficult to fall. The core depends on whether the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased and the recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; The terminal profit of polyester has been squeezed. If the terminal orders cannot continue to improve, the demand side support will weaken, which will affect the increase in PX.
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